Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
(Bloomberg) --
Phase one deal near completion apparently, impeachment inquiry calls on Trump, and central bank policy worries central banks. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
Progress
President Donald Trump said yesterday that talks on a phase one trade deal with China were near completion, saying he is holding up the agreement to ensure the U.S. does better out of it. His comments follow developments this week showing progress in the talks, with Chinese officials saying consensus had been reached on properly resolving relevant issues. The impact from the delay in reaching an accord can be seen in the latest U.S. goods trade data, and early indicators showing a continued slowdown in China’s economy in November.
Impeachment articles
The House impeachment inquiry moves on to a new phase next week, with a public hearing scheduled for Dec. 4 where Trump will be invited to present his defense. The move comes as the role of Rudy Giuliani remains in focus, with the president’s former personal lawyer saying he went to Ukraine to defend his client and Trump denying he directed the trip. Meanwhile, more transcripts released by the inquiry showed a White House budget official questioned the legality of withholding security assistance for Ukraine.
Getting worried
It’s that magical time of year when the world’s big investment banks come out with their predictions for the next 12 months. However, it may be just as worthwhile listening to what central banks are saying, as they start to increasingly flag the risks from the behavior their low-interest policies are driving. With stocks hitting record highs as Treasuries also rally, 2019 is looking like the year there was “bull market in everything.” The obvious problem central banks have is that right now it seems they can do little more than warn of the dangers, as continued low inflation has already forced further easing.
Markets gain
The positive trade noises are helping push global stocks higher. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3% while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.3% higher with the yen weakening for a sixth day. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.4% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with all but one industry component rising. S&P 500 futures pointed to another session of record highs, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.743% and gold was lower.
Coming up…
With tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday, there’s a lot crammed into today’s eco calendar. At 8:30 a.m. the second reading of third-quarter GDP will be accompanied by personal consumption, core PCE, and durable goods orders. Weekly initial jobless claims data is at the same time. At 10:00 a.m. personal income and spending numbers are published, with the PCE deflator update expected to show the core reading held at 1.7%. Pending home sales for October are also released at that time. The latest Fed beige book is due at 2:00 p.m.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Storms to make Thanksgiving travel impossible in U.S. west.
- Goldman says Germany needs large fiscal stimulus, China a bit more.
- Hong Kong stock’s 78% collapse adds to wave of sudden crashes.
- After $1 billion theft, German museum finds it has no insurance.
- Why Nafta isn’t dead (yet) and what might replace it.
- Greece is the world’s best-performing stock market this year.
- Will 2020 be the year we find intelligent alien life? Probably not, but...
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Cecile Gutscher at cgutscher@bloomberg.net, Sam Potter
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