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Good morning. There’s big expectations ahead of the Fed, oil is trimming that record rise, and suddenly everyone’s talking about repo rates. Here’s what’s moving markets.

Fed Seen Cutting

There’s a rate cut coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve tonight, according to the average economist, although it might not be as aggressive as President Donald Trump might like. Consensus is for a 25 basis point trim, and at least one more cut is seen arriving later in the year, amid mounting, albeit mixed, signals of a looming recession. This week’s oil spike may also add to the rate cut argument, and note as well that tonight’s decision comes just as money-market rates are soaring, although the wider implications of that are unclear. 

Brexit Case Continues

The U.K. Supreme Court will continue to examine the legality of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s parliamentary proroguing over the next few days. On Tuesday they asked what Johnson would do if he loses the case, but didn’t get a real answer, while the attorney leading the challenge says lawmakers need to be recalled in order to keep a “close eye” on Johnson’s Brexit negotiations. This comes after Johnson’s trip to Luxembourg resulted in the “Incredible Hulk” turning into the Invisible Man, Bloomberg Opinion writes.

Oil Recedes

Brent and WTI futures edged lower on Wednesday after tumbling Tuesday as Saudi Aramco said it had revived 41% of capacity at a key crude-processing complex days after the weekend’s aerial attack that wrecked vital equipment. Both crude benchmarks are still trading about 7%-8% higher than the pre-attack price, however, amid conflicting media reports about the pace and likely duration of efforts to repair the damaged facility. Here’s a review of one of the oil market’s craziest ever days

Renzi, Repos

As for equities, price action was muted in Asia, as is usually the case ahead of a big Fed decision. Shares slipped in Tokyo and Sydney, and U.S. futures edged lower. Elsewhere, investors will have Italy on the radar after its government’s bonds fell Tuesday as former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi left the Democratic Party, heightening the prospect of further political instability. Roaring repo rates, as mentioned above, will also probably grab more headlines. For a good explanation of what’s going on there, read this

Coming Up...

U.K. inflation is expected to have dipped below the Bank of England’s 2% target, while eurozone price rises are likely to have held steady, economists reckon. In corporate earnings, Europe’s slate is light but we’ll get half-year numbers from U.K.’s Kingfisher Plc, owner of the B&Q D.I.Y. chain. Finally, Spanish politics also remain in focus as the country heads for its fourth election in as many years. 

What We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

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