Oil Rebound Takes the Edge Off Covid-19 Slump in Nigeria

(Bloomberg) --

Africa’s largest economy had a week of good and bad news as the oil price rebounded to the highest level in two months, while the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on consumers and business activity became clearer.

Crude prices have doubled since hitting a two-decade low in April, climbing past $40 a barrel after OPEC+ cuts started taking excess supplies from the market. With oil bringing in 90% of foreign exchange revenue for the continent’s largest producer, this will boost government income and dollar liquidity. Ironically, Nigeria is among the countries accused by the production group of not fully complying with the reductions that helped push up prices in the last month.

The following four charts show some of the bad and the good for Nigeria.

If oil prices stabilize close to the current levels until the end of the year, it would add modest upside risks to forecasts for economic growth, public finances and international reserves, said Mahmoud Harb, a director at Fitch Ratings. A 10% rise in the full year’s average crude price above the company’s current forecast of $35 per barrel would improve Nigeria’s current-account deficit by about 1.5% of gross domestic product, he said.

Yields on Nigerian bonds maturing in 2047 fell from an all-time high of 13.2% on March 19 to 8.6% on Friday, a sign that investor concern has eased. Although the West African nation has ruled out going to international bond markets this year, the cost of raising new debt will be relatively lower now if it chooses to.

Although the purchasing managers index of Stanbic IBTC Bank and IHS Markit’ rose last month, it remained below 50, suggesting the economy of Africa’s largest crude producer will shrink in the second quarter. The central bank said last week Nigeria may avert a recession and that the drop in GDP could be less than the 3.4% projected by the International Monetary Fund, but its own manufacturing PMI fell to 42.4 in May after staying above 50 for 36 consecutive months. The manufacturing PMI compiled by Lagos-based FBNQuest Capital fell to 43.3 in May from 45.8, with all sub-indices in contracting territory.

“The recession this year will be smaller than in advanced and many peer economies because of the limits to Nigeria’s integration within the global economy,” analysts at investment banking firm, FBNQuest wrote in a note on Friday. “For the same reason its U-shaped recovery in 2021 is likely to disappoint. Household demand remains squeezed.”

Nigeran consumers are feeling the impact of the disruption in economic activities, data released Friday by the statistics agency shows. At least 79% of respondents in a survey said their incomes have decreased since mid-March, when restrictions were imposed to curb the spread the pandemic. More than 42% who were working before the pandemic now say they no longer do and 51% of households were forced to buy less food due to higher costs.

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