The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) stands in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election bid, global trade war led by U.S. President Donald Trump and crude prices are among the key factors that will decide how the Indian stock market fares this year, according to a BloombergQuint poll of market participants.

The majority of 27 respondents had a conservative estimate for the benchmark Nifty 50. They expect crude’s upper range to be $70-75 a barrel and see the rupee in 70-75 range against the dollar—the levels that contributed to the selloff in 2018.

Here’s what they expect in 2019:

Nifty 50

The majority of market participants don’t expect the benchmark to break above 12,000 even in the best-case scenario.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Modi And Market

The respondents expect the market to surge if Narendra Modi returns as prime minister or even if the Bharatiya Janta Party manages to form the government with the help of allies after the general election.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market
BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market
BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Other Risks

Crude, trade war and the rupee are the top factors to watch out for.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Trump’s Tantrum

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Also read: BloombergQuint Poll: What Analysts Expect Nifty To Do In 2019

Sectors To Buy And Avoid

An equal number of market participants recommended to buy and avoid information technology and oil & gas.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market
BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Also read: BloombergQuint Market Poll: What To Buy Or Avoid In 2019?

Most Preferred Stocks For 2019

The majority of market participants preferred private lenders led by ICICI Bank Ltd.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market
BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market
BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Rupee Forecast

Most respondents expect the pressure on the rupee to continue.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Crude Concerns

If it hits the upper end of the forecast, crude oil will remain a worry.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Gold

Uncertainty about equities could push safe-haven gold to as high as $1,500 an ounce.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market

Commodities Vs Stocks

Nearly all the respondents said commodities are unlikely to beat equities in returns.

BloombergQuint Poll: The Road Ahead For Indian Market