Biden Warns Putin of Risk of Heavy Price: Ukraine Update

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of the “severe costs” of any move to invade Ukraine. 

Saturday’s hour-long phone call, which appeared to made little overall headway, capped a feverish round of talks among national leaders and top diplomats after the U.S. on Friday night said intelligence indicates Russia may attack Ukraine before the Beijing Winter Olympics end on Feb. 20. Russia’s foreign minister said Washington is leading a “propaganda campaign” against Moscow.  

Russia has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion, as the U.S. and its NATO allies warn a buildup of almost 130,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian border may be preparation to do so, including via Belarus from the north. Several countries advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, while Russia said it was “optimizing” staff at its Ukrainian missions. 

Key Developments

• U.S. Sees China Watching Ukraine Showdown as a Proxy for Taiwan
• Biden-Putin Call Is Inconclusive Even as Ukraine Tensions Jump
• Russia Starts Major Military Drills in Belarus as NATO Watches
• Russia and Europe Are Vital to Each Other When It Comes to Oil
• What we know so far about potential U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia
• Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine

All times CET.

U.S. Denies Russia’s Stray Submarine Claim (10:21 p.m.)

The Pentagon denied Russia’s claim that a U.S. submarine was intercepted in Russian waters near the Kuril Islands, which prompted the Defense Ministry in Moscow to summon the U.S. military attache.

“There is no truth to the Russian claims of our operations in their territorial waters,” Navy Captain Kyle Raines, a spokesman for the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, said by email. While declining to comment on the precise location of U.S. submarines, he said “we do fly, sail, and operate safely in international waters.”

Biden Warns Putin on Call of Heavy Price (7:17 p.m.) 

U.S. President Joe Biden again warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in an hour-long call on Saturday that any move to invade Ukraine would be met with a strong response that would impose “severe costs” on Moscow, the White House said. 

Biden also told Putin during their conversation -- their first direct exchange since late December -- that the U.S. remained ready to find a diplomatic solution to the tensions over Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian border. An invasion, he said, would mean “widespread human suffering.” 

While the Kremlin characterized the talks as businesslike and balanced, briefings by both sides afterward indicated that Biden and Putin stuck to their familiar talking points, proving few clues as to where things go from here.

EU Says Missions Aren’t Closing (6:49 p.m.) 

On a day when several European governments warned its citizens to leave Ukraine, the European Union said its diplomatic missions would remain open. 

Still, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Joseph Borrell, said on Twitter that “staff presence and travel advice” were being adjusted. 

No Timeline on Russian Response, U.S. Says (6:40 p.m.) 

A call on Saturday between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov produced no notable changes of position, according to a senior State Department official.

The official said Lavrov indicated that Russia would provide its response to U.S. proposals on security soon, and that it has to go to President Vladimir Putin for approval. Lavrov didn’t provide a clear timetable, the official told reporters.

The proposals were made in response to Moscow’s demands for security guarantees including that NATO never allow Ukraine to join, and that the military alliance pull back its presence in eastern Europe. 

Russia Summons U.S. Attache Over Submarine Incident (6:17 p.m.) 

The Russia Defense Ministry said it summoned the U.S. military attache after an American submarine was intercepted in Russian waters in the far-east Kuril Islands region.

The Russian military said on Saturday that it alerted the crew of the U.S. submarine that it was in Russian territorial waters and demanded that it surface. The vessel ignored the demands, according to the ministry. 

A Russian warship, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, used “appropriate means” and the submarine left Russian waters “at maximum speed,” the ministry said. Pentagon and U.S. Navy spokespersons had no immediate comment. 

Macron, Putin Speak for Almost Two Hours (5:01 p.m.) 

France’s Emmanuel Macron spoke with Vladimir Putin for 100 minutes on Saturday, according to a French official. Macron told Putin a sincere dialogue wasn’t compatible with escalation and relayed the concerns of Europeans and allies, Macron’s office said. 

Putin told Macron he had no offensive intention, an official from France’s Elysee told reporters. France has no sign yet that Putin plans to go on the offensive, but is monitoring the situation carefully, the official said. 

Separately, the Kremlin said Putin and Macron discussed “provocative speculations” that Russia plans to invade Ukraine. The Kremlin also said that “prerequisites are being created for possible aggressive actions of the Ukrainian security forces” in Donbas. Putin also spoke Saturday with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. 

KLM Halts Flights to Ukraine (4:58 p.m.) 

KLM has stopped flights to Ukraine after the Dutch cabinet earlier Saturday changed travel advice to red, calling on citizens to leave the country “as soon as possible.” 

U.S. Pulling National Guard Out of Ukraine (3:20 p.m.)

Citing an “abundance of caution,” the U.S. will temporarily reposition to elsewhere in Europe some 160 members of the Florida National Guard who’ve been deployed to Ukraine since November. 

The troops have been advising and mentoring Ukrainian forces as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine, said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

The move signals an intent to safeguard the unit from unintended collateral damage. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Friday that “if a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality.” 

No Ukraine Evacuation Planned for U.S. Citizens (2:30 p.m.)

The U.S. decision to direct most embassy staff to leave Kyiv reflects caution that diplomats could get caught up in any Russian military action, a senior State Department official said. The embassy will remain open for essential business. 

The U.S. won’t organize evacuations for citizens still in Ukraine, according to the official. 

While Ukrainian officials understand why the U.S. is taking these steps, not all of them agree with Washington’s assessment of the extent to which potential conflict is imminent, the official said. Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to attack Ukraine.

U.S., Russian Defense Chiefs Talk (2:34 p.m.) 

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke Saturday with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, the Pentagon said without providing further details. 

Lavrov Accuses U.S. of Leading “Propaganda” Campaign (1:48 p.m.) 

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during the call with U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken, accused the U.S. and its allies of pursuing a “propaganda campaign” in alleging Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to a readout from Moscow. 

The West’s goal is to encourage the government in Kyiv to “sabotage” the Minsk peace accords on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and to try to resolve the issue by force, Lavrov said. 

Responses from Washington and Brussels to Russia’s proposals for security guarantees ignored Moscow’s demand that there be no further NATO expansion and no deployment of offensive weapons systems near Russia’s borders, according to the statement. Lavrov said those questions will be central to Russia’s assessment of the replies.

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says Too Much Talk About an Invasion (1:47 p.m.)

Ukraine’s president said there’s “too much” information in media about alleged Russian plans to invade his country, even as risks persist “each day” and diplomacy remains the only way toward de-escalation.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he can neither confirm nor refute information about something that hasn’t yet happened, calling panic “the best friends for enemies” as he spoke during a televised briefing broadcast from Kherson region near Black Sea. 

“Surprises can happen any time. We must count on our own forces”, Zelenskiy said.

Several EU Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Ukraine (12:53 p.m.)

Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy all issued travel warnings about Ukraine -- recommending that their citizens not travel there, or consider leaving, or both. Denmark, Poland, Sweden and others have issued advisories as well. 

Citing an escalation of tensions in recent days, the German Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning Saturday urging citizens to determine whether their presence in Ukraine is necessary and, if not, to be prepared to depart at short notice. 

“The security situation was already worrying, and has deteriorated further in recent days,” the Dutch foreign minister said. Spain called the situation “volatile.” Italy said essential diplomatic staff would stay for the time being but non-essential workers were asked to leave.

China Says Citizens in Ukraine Must “Pay Attention” (12:34 p.m.) 

China’s embassy in Ukraine warned its citizens there to “pay close attention to the local situation.” 

“The current tension between Ukraine and Russia has drawn attention from many parties,”  the embassy said on its WeChat account. It added that “various theories have emerged, which are inconsistent with each other.” 

Chinese citizens in Ukraine weren’t explicitly advised to leave. The advisory also mentioned the “increasingly severe” coronavirus situation in Ukraine. 

U.S. Orders Most Employees Out, Will Suspend Consular Services (11:35 a.m.) 

The U.S. State Department has ordered “non-emergency U.S. employees” at the embassy in Kyiv to depart, and consular services at the embassy will be suspended as of Sunday.

A small consular presence will continue in Lviv, in far western Ukraine, to handle emergences.

Saturday’s order covers most direct-hire U.S. employees. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should “depart immediately using commercial or other privately available transportation options,” the State Department said in its advisory, citing the potential for significant military action.  

Russia Says It’s ‘Optimizing’ Diplomatic Staff (9:48 a.m.) 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry is “optimizing” staff at its diplomatic missions in Ukraine, saying it fears “possible provocations by the Kyiv regime or third countries,” according to a statement on its website Saturday. 

Earlier, RIA Novosti, citing the mission, reported that Russia’s embassy was working as usual and there had been no decision on a partial evacuation. The Russian news service cited an unidentified person as saying employees were already leaving the country.

Japan, South Korea, New Zealand Urge Their Citizens to Leave (3 a.m.)

Japan, South Korea and New Zealand are also asking their nationals in Ukraine to leave the country. Japan’s foreign ministry elevated its travel warning to the highest level. South Korea will ban travel to Ukraine effective from Sunday. New Zealand said its citizens should leave immediately as the security situation there could change “at short notice.” 

U.S. Warns of Potential Russia Attack on Ukraine Within Days (8:20 p.m.)

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. believes Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an attack on Ukraine before the Beijing Olympics end on Feb. 20, while adding that the U.S. doesn’t know Putin’s final intentions. 

“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House. “It could begin during the Olympics despite a lot of speculation that it will only happen after the Olympics.”

The actions by Russia could include causing a provocation in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s military has been fighting for years against separatists backed by Moscow, or attacking the country’s capital, Kyiv, officials familiar with the matter said.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

With assistance from Bloomberg