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Bets on S&P 500 Demise Approach Record High With Volatility Jump

Bearish Bets on S&P 500 Approach Record Amid Wild Market Swings

(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 Index is already off more than 10% from a record, but traders are betting there’s more pain to come.

Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding on the $269 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust -- a rough indicator of bearish bets on U.S. stocks -- surged to 7.4% this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd. That just about matches the highest level seen over the last five years. And with the value of short bets around $20 billion, the dollar amount wagering on the S&P 500’s demise is close to a record.

Bets on S&P 500 Demise Approach Record High With Volatility Jump

Traders are steeling themselves for further losses amid an incredibly volatile run for the S&P 500, which swung more than 3% on six days in the past two weeks amid growing fear about the economic toll of the coronavirus that’s sweeping the globe. The Cboe Volatility Index, or the VIX, has closed above 30 for six straight days -- the longest streak in nine years. Demand for havens has sent gold prices to the highest since 2013 and bond yields to record lows.

The S&P 500 slid 2.9% at 2:27 p.m. in New York Friday, erasing its weekly gains.

To Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., it’s all a sign that the sell-off that’s wiped $3 trillion from U.S. stock values hasn’t reached its nadir.

“A retest of last week’s lows -- at the very least -- will take place before we see a sustainable rally in the stock market,” he wrote. “Given the action in the entire market place this week, we still believe that we’ll see more weakness in the stock market going forward.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Rita Nazareth, Brendan Walsh

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