AQR Cuts Returns Outlook Now That Everything’s More Expensive

(Bloomberg) -- The quants at AQR Capital Management are here again to warn investors of “soberingly low” returns. A year after their last missive, they’re even more sober.

The $186 billion quantitative hedge fund this week updated its medium-term outlook for the major asset classes. The predictions are for lower annualized returns across the board compared with their projections a year earlier:

Notably, AQR cut its forecast for a traditional 60/40 portfolio of U.S assets, predicting it will deliver 2.4% after inflation over the next decade, down from 2.9% a year earlier.

“The year 2019 saw a reverse of 2018’s cheapening, with expected returns falling for both equities and (especially) bonds,” according to a research note. “Over the next decade, many investors may struggle to meet return objectives anchored to a rosier past.”

Anticipated returns for U.S. equities dropped to 4% from 4.3% a year earlier. U.S. Treasuries tracked the move, with AQR predicting buyers will merely break even. Non-U.S. sovereigns slipped deeper into negative territory, with a projected loss of 0.6% a year.

Emerging-market equities will lead the way, the firm projects, with a return of 5.1%.

The Connecticut-based quants warn that return estimates for all asset classes are “highly uncertain” and that the report’s recommendations don’t warrant “aggressive” tactical allocation moves.

Still, in keeping with its mission, the firm added that the case for diversifying away from traditional stocks and term premia is “stronger than ever.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ksenia Galouchko in London at kgalouchko1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at brobinson58@bloomberg.net, Yakob Peterseil, Sid Verma

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