All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Sept. 11

Asian stocks open mixed after their U.S. counterparts eked out modest gains amid lingering concerns about trade tensions.

Equity indexes advanced in Japan and were little changed in Australia and South Korea, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lingering near a one-year low. Futures fell in Hong Kong and China. The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, traded 0.1 percent lower at 11,472.50 as of 7:35 a.m.

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Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities today.

U.S. Market Check

• Most U.S. stocks hung onto gains to close higher even as FANG weakness and lingering concern over U.S. and China trade tensions weighed on investor optimism.
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries held at 2.93 percent and the two-year yield clung to 2.71 percent.

Europe Market Check

• European equities rose the most in two weeks as sentiment got a boost from EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying a Brexit deal within two months was realistic.

Asian Cues

• Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2 percent.
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.2 percent.
• Futures on the FTSE China A50 fell 0.1 percent.
• Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.5 percent.
• S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.1 percent.
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 1.2 percent to the lowest in 14 months Monday.

Commodity Cues

• West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $67.56 a barrel.
• Brent crude traded 0.2 percent higher at $77.50 a barrel.
• Gold fell 0.1 percent to $1,195.28 an ounce.

Shanghai Exchange

• Steel snapped three-day winning streak; down 1.8 percent.
• Aluminium traded lower for second day; down 0.2 percent.
• Zinc snapped three-day winning streak; down 1.2 percent.
• Copper traded steady.
• Rubber traded lower; down 0.1 percent.

Here are the key events to watch out for this week:

• Policy decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet.
• Apple unveils its latest iPhones on Wednesday
• Australia employment is due Thursday.
• China releases August industrial production, retail sales data on Friday.
• U.S. retail sales, industrial production, consumer sentiment on Friday.

Indian ADRs

Stocks To Watch

• Sun Pharma’s wholly owned subsidiary to acquire 18.75 percent stake in Israel based Tarsius Pharma for $3 million. The company is an early-stage research and development company focusing on development of drug candidates in the field of ophthalmology.
• NMDC production and sales of iron ore from April to August stood at 9.85 million tons and 11.04 million tonnes, respectively. The company has fixed iron ore price with effect from Sept. 7 with lump ore priced at Rs 3,550 per tonne and fines at Rs 3,110 per tonne.
• Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC and Public Sector Pension Investment Board of Canada are in race to pick 25 percent stake in Reliance Home Finance for Rs 1,500-2,000 crore. The funds will be used for expansion of the Anil Ambani group company, which is focusing on affordable housing for future growth. (PTI)
• ICICI Bank filed bankruptcy petition against the Jaiprakash Associates. The company says it has seven days to reply to the bank’s petition.
• Manali Petrochemicals will launch its products from its U.K. arm, Notedome Ltd, in India. The U.K. arm is a manufacturer of high performance polyurethanes and was acquired by Manali Petrochemicals’ subsidiary in Sept. 2016.
• BSE along PTC India Limited and ICICI Bank Limited have filed a petition with the power market regulator Central Electricity Regulatory Commission for grant of license for setting up a new power exchange. This proposed institutional exchange, subject to necessary regulatory approvals, would leverage on the experience and expertise of its stakeholders in their fields, funding of power projects and associated infrastructure, setting-up and running various exchanges and platforms in India, and offer the market participants a credible power trading platform.
• Container Corporation of India signed an agreement to form joint working group with Central Warehousing Corporation, to operate its container freight station facility at Pipavav port. This agreement will help in fulfilling multi-modal transport requirements and meet the growing needs of exports, imports and domestic business situated in and around Pipavav port.
• Yes Bank’s board and shareholders approved raising Rs 30,000 crores via debt from domestics as well as foreign buyers. The Capital Raising Committee will consider this issue of tier 2 bonds on or after Sept. 14.

Earnings To Watch

• PFC
• Reliance Capital

Earnings Reaction To Watch

Reliance Home Finance (Q1, YoY)

• Revenue from operations grew 5.5 percent to Rs 404 crore.
• Net profit rose 41 percent to Rs 48 crore.
• AUM growth at 21 percent at Rs 15,640 crore.
• Gross NPA unchanged at 0.8 percent (YoY).
• NIM at 3.2 percent versus 3.8 percent (YoY).

Bulk Deals

• Balrampur Chini Mills: Morgan Stanley France SAS sold 14.8 lakh shares or 0.63 percent equity at Rs 78.32 apiece.

Who’s Meeting Whom

• Galaxy Surfactants to meet investors between Sept. 11-14.
• PI Industries to meet JM Financial Services on Sept. 11.
• Finolex Industries to meet Reliance MF and other investors on Sept. 11.

Insider Trades

• Confidence Petroleum India promoter Nitin Khara acquired 10,000 shares on Sept. 7.
• Laurus Labs promoter Naga Rani Chava acquired 16,000 shares on Sept. 5.

Trading Tweaks

• Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd circuit filter revised to 10 percent.
• GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals ex-date for 1:1 bonus.
• J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals ex-date to determine buyback eligibility.
• Godrej Consumer Products’ last trading day before ex-date for 1:2 bonus.

Money Market Update

• The rupee today closed at its lifetime low of 72.45 per dollar versus 71.74 on Friday. This was its largest single day fall since August 13.

F&O Cues

• Nifty September futures closed trading at 11,493 premium of 53 points versus 44 points.
• September series: Nifty open interest down 0.6 percent; Bank Nifty open interest up 11 percent.
• India VIX ended at 15.2, up 9.5 percent.
• Max open interest for September series at 11,800 strike price call option (open interest at 45 lakh, open interest up 13 percent).
• Max open interest for September series at 11,400 strike price put option(open interest at 44.3 lakh, open interest down 6.6 percent).

Put Call Ratio

• Nifty PCR at 1.33 versus 1.49.
• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.84 versus 1.08.

Brokerage Radar

Citi on ICICI Securities

• Initiated ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 425, implying a potential upside of 30 percent from the last regular trade.
• Expect it to be a key beneficiary of a shift to financial avenues of savings.
• Leading retail broking franchise; Growing in distribution.
• Client franchise can benefit from ICICI group.
• Expect revenue and net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 16 percent and 21 percent respectively over FY18-21.

Edelweiss on Sheela Foam

• Initiated ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 2,010, implying a potential upside of 20 percent from the last regular trade.
• Superior brand with strong distribution and pricing power.
• Positives: Broad-based growth, easing raw material prices and improving mix.
• Expect revenue, Ebitda and net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 14 percent 30 percent and 35 percent respectively over FY18–20.
• Sheela Foam trades at high valuations, but EPS reflects the opportunity size.

UBS on Infosys

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 865 from Rs 737, implying a potential upside of 18 percent from the last regular trade.
• Currency gains create opportunity to accelerate investments.
• Attrition remains a challenge; Senior management retention is key.
• Upgrade estimates and TP to reflect recent currency moves.

BofAML on Glenmark Pharma

• Maintained ‘Neutral’; raised price target Rs 715 from Rs 600, implying a potential upside of 4 percent from the last regular trade.
• Respiratory drivers in EU intact for double digit growth.
• U.S. pipeline in generics is lacking visibility.
• Big launches in 2019-2020, but see near-term risk in mupirocin competition.
• Debt reduction expectations on back of recent deals led to stock re-rating.

Citi on Cummins India

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 844 from Rs 779, implying a potential upside of 13 percent from the last regular trade.
• Exports guidance could get revised up post September.
• Positive on a potential business rebound.
• Increase in price target to factor in higher sales and higher operating margins.

Macquarie on Indian IT Services

• Currency boost in improving growth environment.
• Industry trends continue to point at growth acceleration.
• Upgrade Wipro and Hexaware to Outperform on valuations.
• In large cap preference is HCL Tech > TCS > Infosys > Wipro and Tech Mahindra.
• In mid-caps, preferred pick is L&T Infotech.

Macquarie on Ujjivan Financial

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 460 from Rs 490, implying a potential upside of 40 percent from the last regular trade.
• Rising bond yield concerns overdone; Changing liability mix being overlooked.
• Ujjivan on track to deliver 35 percent loan CAGR and 16 percent RoE by March 2021.
• Correction in the past three months provides attractive entry price.

Citi on BHEL

• Maintained ‘Neutral’; raised price target to Rs 84 from Rs 78, implying a potential upside of 8 percent from the last regular trade.
• NTPC Talcher 1320MW likely to fructify soon.
• Of the total order Rs 19000 crore orders are slow moving.
• Increase EPS estimates by 7-8 percent based on trends in the latest annual report.

Deutsche Bank on Tata Global

• Maintained ‘Hold’ with a price target of Rs 285, implying a potential upside of 28 percent from the last regular trade.
• Integration of international business to drive cost optimization.
• Increased focus on Indian business, entry into branded coffee and profitable Starbucks augurs well.
• Expect 14 percent earnings CAGR over FY18-21.

CLSA on HDFC Life

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 600, implying a potential upside of 33 percent from the last regular trade.
• Management sees healthy growth in insurance industry as it remains preferred pool of household savings.
• HDFC Life is banking on expanding distribution and product innovation.
• Believe HDFC Life is well placed to deliver a 24 percent CAGR in new premiums.