All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Oct. 31
Asian stocks traded mixed on the last day of a bruising month after a topsy-turvy U.S. session that eventually saw equities rally.
Shares in Tokyo climbed, were little changed in Australia and slipped in South Korea. Futures in Hong Kong pointed to modest losses. The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India rose 0.6 percent to 10,292.50 as of 7:20 a.m.
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Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities today.
U.S. Market Check
- U.S. stocks ended a tumultuous day sharply higher, with all major averages rising at least 1.4 percent as volatility continues to grip equity markets during earnings season.
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries held at 3.12 percent after gaining four basis points.
Europe Market Check
- European shares ended little changed, supported by an upbeat U.S. open, after falling as much as 0.8 percent earlier in the session.
- Japan’s Topix index rose 0.7 percent.
- FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.4 percent.
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was little changed.
- South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent.
- Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.1 percent.
- S&P 500 futures were flat.
- West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.5 percent to $66.51 a barrel.
- Brent crude snapped a two-day losing streak, up 0.5 percent.
- Gold was steady at $1,222.03 an ounce.
- Copper traded lower for the third day, down 1.8 percent.
- Zinc traded lower for the second day, down 1.6 percent.
- Steel traded lower for the third day, down 1.2 percent.
- Aluminim traded lower for the fifth day, down 0.4 percent.
- Rubber traded lower for the third day, down 1.6 percent.
Here are the key events to watch out for this week:
- This week’s earnings season highlights include: Macquarie, Apple, Alibaba, Airbus, Credit Suisse, Exxon Mobil, and Shell.
- Monetary policy decisions are due in Japan and the U.K.
- On Friday, the final U.S. jobs report before the November midterm elections may show hiring improved as payrolls rose about 190,000, and the unemployment rate held at a 48-year low of 3.7 percent, analysts forecast.
Stocks To Watch
- Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories received Form-483 with eight observations by the U.S. FDA at the Vishakapatnam facility.
- Government said it will sell three percent stake in Coal India with an over subscription option of selling additional six percent stake as offer for sale to public. The floor price is set at Rs 266 per share. The amount to be raised would be around Rs 14861 crore, including the green shoe option. Offer will open on Oct. 31 and end on Nov. 1.
- Thyssenkrupp AG and India’s Tata Steel plans to set up a European steel company with equal shares of ownership face an in-depth European Union probe over concerns that the deal could reduce competition in the supply of various high-end steels. (Bloomberg News)
- Punjab National Bank: Government got an exemption from the SEBI from making the bank’s open offer. The proposed acquisition by the government was 5.83 percent stake. The bank raised its MCLR by five basis points across various tenors. Overnight MCLR is now at 8.15 percent and one year MCLR at 8.5 percent.
- Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers entered into contract with Ministry of Defence for construction and delivery of four survey vessels for Rs 2,435.2 crore. The project is expected to be completed by April 2023.
- Blue Star board approved setting up of new manufacturing facility for water coolers and deep freezers in Maharashtra for Rs 115 crore.
- IndusInd Bank said the deal to acquire 100 percent stake in IL&FS Securities and Services was progressing apace in its time period of three months for the completion of the acquisition. All regulatory approvals expect one are in place.
- GMR Infrastructure arm acquired 100 percent stake in Menzies Aviation Cargo for Rs 59.8 crore.
- IL&FS Transportation Networks MD K.Ramchand resigned.
- ONGC said it was considering interim dividend on Nov. 3 with record date fixed on Nov. 16.
- Indiabulls Real Estate’s wholly-owned subsidiary entered into definitive agreement to acquire a land parcel of 140 acre for development of integrated township and commercial building in Gurugram.
Data To Watch
- 5 p.m.: India Eight Infrastructure Industries Index for September, prior 4.2 percent.
Nifty Earnings To Watch
- Larsen & Toubro
- Tata Motors
Other Earnings To Watch
- Adani Enterprises
- Adani Power
- AIA Engineering
- Ajanta Pharma
- Balrampur Chini Mills
- Canara Bank
- Castrol India
- Cochin Shipyard
- Narayana Hrudayalaya
- Prism Johnson
- Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management
- Sanofi India
- Sharda Croreopchem
- Strides Pharma Science
- Syndicate Bank
- United Spirits
Earnings Reactions To Watch
Tech Mahindra (Q2, QoQ)
- Revenue up 4 percent at Rs 8,630 crore.
- Net profit up 18 percent at Rs 1,064 crore.
- EBIT up 23 percent to Rs 1,325 crore.
- Margin at 15.3 percent versus 13.0 percent.
- Dollar revenue down 0.5 percent at $1218 million.
Pidilite Industries (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 14.9 percent at Rs 1,757.4 crore.
- Net profit down 8.1 percent at Rs 231.6 crore.
- Ebitda down 3 percent at Rs 364.8 crore.
- Margin at 20.8 percent versus 24.6 percent.
- Cost of raw material at Rs 808.3 crore vs Rs 551.9 crore.
Tata Global Beverages (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 4.1 percent at Rs 1,760.9 crore.
- Net profit up 18 percent at Rs 169.7 crore.
- Ebitda down 22.1 percent at Rs 166.7 crore.
- Margin at 9.5 percent vs 12.6 percent.
Cummins India (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 28.9 percent at Rs 1,486.9 crore.
- Net profit up 38.4 percent at Rs 211.6 crore.
- Ebitda up 49.8 percent at Rs 250.9 crore.
- Margin at 16.9 percent versus 14.5 percent.
- Other Income at Rs 78.5 crore versus Rs 53.6 crore.
IRB Infra Developers (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 19.5 percent at Rs 1,432.3 crore.
- Net profit down 26.3 percent at Rs 172.9 crore.
- Ebitda up 17.1 percent at Rs 670.1 crore.
- Margin at 46.8 percent versus 47.7 percent.
- Exceptional gain of Rs 103.6 crore in base quarter.
Team Lease Services (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 24.6 percent at Rs 1,090.7 crore.
- Net profit up 43.1 percent at Rs 24.9 crore.
- Ebitda up 58.6 percent at Rs 24.1 crore.
- Margin at 2.2 percent versus 1.7 percent.
Torrent Power (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 18.4 percent at Rs 3,444.5 crore.
- Net profit up 29.7 percent at Rs 412.2 crore.
- Ebitda up 17.8 percent at Rs 986.8 crore.
- Margin at 28.6 percent versus 28.8 percent.
- Fuel expenses at Rs 1,072.4 crore versus Rs 794.6 crore.
Container Corporation of India (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 26.1 percent at Rs 1,822.3 crore.
- Net profit up 46.8 percent at Rs 336.1 crore.
- Ebitda up 61.9 percent at Rs 504.2 crore.
- Margin at 27.7 percent versus 21.6 percent.
Vakrangee (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue down 80.8 percent at Rs 298.5 crore.
- Net profit at Rs 1.9 crore versus Rs 189.8 crore.
- Ebitda loss at Rs 14.4 crore versus Ebitda at Rs 287.4 crore.
Manpasand Beverages (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 38.5 percent at Rs 174.2 crore.
- Net profit down 6.7 percent at Rs 8.4 crore.
- Ebitda up 32.6 percent at Rs 28.5 crore.
- Margin at 16.4 percent versus 17.1 percent.
Accelya Kale Solutions (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 12.5 percent at Rs 110 crore.
- Net profit flat at Rs 23.2 crore.
- Ebitda up 6.5 percent at Rs 40.9 crore.
- Margin at 37.2 percent versus 39.3 percent.
Merck (Q3 CY18, YoY)
- Revenue up 9.9 percent at Rs 226.1 crore.
- Net profit up 65 percent at Rs 52.3 crore.
- Ebitda up 56.6 percent at Rs 58.1 crore.
- Margin at 25.7 percent versus 18 percent.
Blue Star (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 21.5 percent at Rs 1,032.2 crore.
- Net profit down 13.7 percent at Rs 19.6 crore.
- Ebitda up 18.6 percent at Rs 58.1 crore.
- Margin at 5.6 percent versus 5.8 percent.
Borosil Glassworks (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 9.6 percent at Rs 87 crore.
- Net profit down 17 percent at Rs 11.2 crore.
- Ebitda down 36.7 percent at Rs 8.1 crore.
- Margin at 9.3 percent vs 16.1 percent.
Bank of Baroda (Q2, YoY)
- Net interest income up 20.7 percent at Rs 4,492.5 crore
- Net profit up 19.7 percent at Rs 425.4 crore.
- NIM at 2.61 percent versus 2.34 percent.
- Provisions for NPA at Rs 1,466.6 crore versus Rs 1,759.7 crore (QoQ).
- GNPA at 11.78 percent versus 12.46 percent (QoQ).
- NNPA at 4.86 percent versus 5.40 percent (QoQ).
- Fresh slippages at Rs 2,281 crore – lowest in seven quarters.
Motilal Oswal Financial (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue down 15 percent at Rs 682 crore.
- Net profit down 98 percent at Rs 4.2 crore.
- Loss on fair value change impacted September quarter.
- Net loss on fair value change of Rs 84 crore versus net gain of Rs 99 crore
- Other expenses include bad debt written-off of Rs 116 crore related to Aspire Home Finance Corp.
Repco Home Finance
- Ab Sicav I - India Growth Portfolio acquired 11.1 lakh shares or 1.78 percent equity at Rs 347.3 each.
- Alliancebernstein India Growth Mauritius sold 11.1 lakh shares or 1.78 percent equity at Rs 347.3 each.
- Ab Sicav I - India Growth Portfolio acquired 7.1 lakh shares or 0.78 percent equity at Rs 258.4 each
- Alliancebernstein India Growth Mauritius sold 7.1 lakh shares or 0.78 percent equity at Rs 258.4 each
- Electrosteel Castings promoter acquired 1.3 lakh shares between Oct. 25-26.
- Confidence Petroleum promoter acquired 1.2 lakh on Oct. 29.
- GPT Infraprojects to move into ASM framework.
- Cochin Shipyard record date to determine buyback eligibility.
- Motherson Sumi Systems record date for 1:2 bonus issue
- Jindal Worldwide ex-date for share split from Rs 5 to Re 1.
- CESC record date for spinoff.
Money Market Update
- Rupee closed at 73.68/$ in trade on Tuesday versus 73.45/$ on Monday.
- Nifty October futures closed trading at 10,229, premium of 31 points.
- Nifty November open interest down 1.1 percent; Nifty Bank November open interest down 5.3 percent.
- Max open interest for November series at 10,700 strike value call option (open interest at 20.9 lakh shares)
- Max open interest for November series at 10,000 strike value put option (open interest at 42.3 lakh shares)
Stocks In F&O Ban
- Adani Power
Put Call Ratio
- Nifty PCR at 1.49 from 1.51.
- Nifty Bank PCR at 0.89 from 1.26.
Goldman Sachs on Page Industries
- Initiated ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 28,695, implying a potential downside of 1 percent from the last regular trade.
- Positive on medium-term revenue and margin prospects.
- Risk-reward balanced as robust revenue/profit prospects are balanced by high valuation.
- Company has a track record for steady margins and consistently high cash returns.
- Expect Revenue and net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 20 percent ad 21 percent respectively over FY18-21.
HSBC on Grasim Industries
- Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’; cut price target to Rs 910 from Rs 1,140, implying a potential upside of 13 percent from the last regular trade.
- Holding company discount hits a record high.
- Weak subsidiary performance has led to expansion in discount.
- Find steep discount unjustified; Valuation attractive.
JPMorgan on Bank of Baroda
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 100, implying a potential downside of 9 percent from the last regular trade.
- Good set of operational numbers; Bank’s transformation efforts clearly visible.
- Net profit misses estimate due to higher MTM losses.
- Saw asset quality improvement; Fresh slippages more than halved on a sequential basis.
CLSA on Ramco Cement
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 850 from Rs 960, implying a potential upside of 41 percent from the last regular trade.
- Flat unit EBITDA (QoQ) despite multiple external pressures.
- Cut EPS estimates by 12-18 percent to factor lower realisation and higher costs.
- Like Ramco’s growth focus and cost-saving agenda.
On Coal India
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 330, implying a potential upside of 20 percent from the last regular trade.
- Much expected stake sale to remove one key overhang.
- Operating environment strong given price hikes and strong E auction prices.
- Struggle to see stock breaking out Rs 260-330 range on growth concerns beyond April 2019.
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 335, implying a potential upside of 21 percent from the last regular trade.
- Divestment has been a key overhang; Recommend subscriber to offer for sale.
- Coal India well placed given current tightness in domestic coal market.
- Estimated dividend yield of 7 percent for 2018-19 has upside risk, given government’s fiscal stress.
On Tech Mahindra
- Upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’; raied price target to Rs 830 from Rs 820, implying a potential upside of 30 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter results lower than estimates at revenue level but better at EBIT margin level.
- New deal wins running high; 5G capex still sometime away.
- Raise EPS by 1-2 percent; Upgrade on cheap valuations.
- Upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Underperform’; maintain price target at Rs 790, implying a potential upside of 16 percent from the last regular trade.
- Revenue miss led by enterprise as telecom recovers.
- Margin continues to recover.
- Upgrade on improved demand environment and FX support.
On Cummins India
Deutsche Bank Research
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 880, implying a potential upside of 31 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s net profit reported big beat on strong revenue growth and operating leverage.
- Solid growth seen in industrial and exports segment.
- Expect guidance for exports to be raised given favourable performance and tailwinds.
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 975, implying a potential upside of 45 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter earnings surpassed expectations on all parameters.
- Margin ahead of estimates due to strong operating leverage and rupee depreciation.
- Strong revenue growth is likely to lead to upward revision.
On IRB Infra
Deutsche Bank Research
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 250 from Rs 290, implying a potential upside of 98 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter was below estimates due to lower margins and higher finance cost.
- Order book execution to pick up pace in the second half.
- Cut price target to factor in lower EPC margins from HAM projects.
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 250 from Rs 330, implying a potential upside of 98 percent from the last regular trade.
- Toll collection mixed; Rajasthan roads remain strong.
- EPC execution picks up but margins down.
- EPS estimates cut by 4-6 percent for FY19-20; Stock offers deep-value.
On ABB India
Deutsche Bank Research
- Maintained ‘Hold’; raised price target to Rs 1,340 from Rs 1,320, implying a potential upside of 11 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter was ahead due to improving margins and revenue growth.
- Initial sings of industrial recovery translating to orders.
- Valuations fair given low growth in T&D segments.
- Maintained ‘Underperform’; raised price target to Rs 967 from Rs 893, implying a potential downside of 20 percent from the last regular trade.
- Revenue growth was strong helped by strong growth across all segments.
- Biggest concern has been on margins, which continue to disappoint.
- Prefer Cummins on play the recovery in the capex cycle.
- Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 430 from Rs 590, implying a potential upside of 6 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter results were below estimates on lower-than-expected volume.
- Believe recovery in key brands is critical for a re-rating.
- Cut price target to factor in lower earnings and lower valuation multiple.
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 490 from Rs 675, implying a potential upside of 21 percent from the last regular trade.
- Weak growth and weak margins in September quarter; Mgmt. commentary positive in the second half.
- Cut EPS on lower revenue and margin estimates; Retain Buy on relatively cheaper valuations.
- One of the worst-performing stocks due to multiple concerns.