All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Nov. 12

Asian stocks kicked off the week with declines following a weak U.S. session on Friday.

Shares fell in Japan, Australia and South Korea. Futures trading from late Friday pointed to declines in Hong Kong. The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, fell 0.3 percent to 10,595 as of 6:55 a.m.

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Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities today.

U.S. Market Check

• U.S. stocks fell amid a fresh round of selling in technology shares sparked by weak earnings, while crude capped its longest losing streak ever on concern over a supply glut.
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.19 percent.

Europe Market Check

Stocks in Europe were mostly lower, breaking two days of gains, dragged by concerns China may force banks to step-up private sector lending to prop up the economy, a bear oil market, and declines on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve remained on course for higher rates.

Asian Cues

• Japan’s Topix index declined 0.6 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo.
• Hang Seng Index futures dropped 0.5 percent.
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.5 percent.
• South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.8 percent.
• S&P 500 Index futures were little changed.

Commodity Cues

• West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1 percent to $60.78 a barrel. It’s dropped about 20 percent from an Oct. 3 peak.
• Brent crude snapped its four-day decline, up 1.2 percent.
• Gold was steady at $1,210.77 an ounce, after sinking 1.2 percent Friday to hit the weakest in a month.

Shanghai Exchange:

• Copper fell for the fifth day, down 0.8 percent.
• Zinc rose for the second day, up 1.1 percent.
• Steel resumed declines after a one-day rally, down 2.2 percent.
• Aluminium fell for the second day, down 0.4 percent.
• Rubber fell for the third day, down 0.9 percent.

Here are the key events to watch out for this week:

• U.S. bond markets are closed Monday in observance of Veterans’ Day.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook at a regional development conference in Idaho Falls, Idaho.
• Tuesday marks the deadline set by EU for Italy to revise its budget.
• Chinese industrial production and retail sales data due Wednesday.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discusses national and global economic issues with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed.
• U.S. consumer inflation probably rebounded in October after easing in September. The consumer price index data is projected to show a 0.3 percent increase for the prior month.
• Policy decisions are coming from central banks in Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand.

Indian ADRs

Stocks To Watch

• Tata Motors’ JLR October sales down 4.6 percent to 44,282 units on a year-on-year basis. Retails sales rose strong in the U.K. by 46.9 percent and North America by 24.1 percent , but the company stated that these gains were offset by China’s sales decline by 49 percent on account of trade tensions with the U.S. Felix Brautigam. Jaguar Land Rover Chief Commercial Officer said, “As announced last week, we are implementing a turnaround plan and taking all the necessary steps to rejuvenate our business especially in China. This involves working closely with our sales network and balancing production with demand in the present market conditions to achieve healthy development for our future that is not unduly dependent on incentives.”
• Bharti Airtel’s dollar-denominated bonds due in 2023 surges the most in five years after the company offered to buy back the securities at above the market price amid the risk of a rating downgrade.
• Wipro’s acquired entity Appirio launched a new office in Porto, Portugal to expand its European operations. The new office will have a commercial cloud digital centre, delivery centre and an innovation hub.
• Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore’s auditors report that the company has a net loss of Rs 66.3 crore in this quarter and the net-worth of the company has been fully eroded. In their Emphasis of Matter paragraph in their Limited Review, they also stated that there exists a condition of material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt as to company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
• Amara Raja Batteries’ board approves capex of Rs 540 crore towards deployment of advanced stamped grid technology, second punching line for two-wheeler battery plant in a phased manner and debottlenecking in MVRLA plant.
• Premier Explosives received arm license from Arms License Issuance Authority for manufacture of ammunition, propellants and compounds at greenfield Katepally plant in Telangana.
• Orient Press received an approval from Maharashtra Pollution Control Board to restart manufacturing at Tarapur plant. Company derives 46.54 percent of gross revenues from plant.
• Jet Airways board likely to consider multiple fundraising options today, according to a report by Business Standard.
• Government plans to sell 149 fields of ONGC to private companies, PTI reported.

Data To Watch

• 5:30 p.m.: India Sept. industrial production YoY; estimate 4.26 percent (prior 4.3 percent).
• 5:30 p.m.: India Oct. YoY consumer price inflation; estimate 3.6 percent (prior 3.77 percent).

Nifty Earnings To Watch

• Coal India
• Eicher Motors

Other Earnings To Watch

• Apex Frozen Foods
• Aurobindo Pharma
• Bank of India
• Brigade Enterprises
• Britannia Industries
• Jamna Auto Industries
• Jet Airways
• Jindal Saw
• JK Paper
• Mcleod Russel India
• NALCO
• NMDC
• Oil India
• Quick Heal Technologies
• Uco Bank
• Union Bank Of India
• Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers

Earnings Reactions To Watch

Titan (Q2, YoY)

• Net profit up 3 percent at Rs 314 crore.
• Net sales up 26 percent at Rs 4,406 crore.
• Ebitda up 5 percent at Rs 466 crore.
• Margin 10.6 percent versus 12.7 percent.

Shankara Building Products (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 12.6 percent at Rs 643.9 crore.
• Net profit down 47.4 percent at Rs 9.1 crore.
• Ebitda down 24.3 percent at Rs 31.1 crore.
• Margin at 4.8 percent versus 7.2 percent.

Igarashi Motors (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 9.5 percent at Rs 125.5 crore.
• Net profit down 11 percent at Rs 14.6 crore.
• Ebitda down 6.6 percent at Rs 25.3 crore.
• Margin at 20.2 percent versus 23.6 percent.

HealthCare Global Enterprises (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 15.9 percent at Rs 244.7 crore versus Rs 211.1 crore.
• Net Loss at Rs 6.5 crore versus net profit of Rs 10 crore.
• Ebitda up 5.8 percent at Rs 32.9 crore.
• Margin at 13.4 percent versus 14.7 percent.

Sobha (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 1.9 percent at Rs 658.7 crore.
• Net profit up 22.1 percent at Rs 61.4 crore.
• Ebitda up 12.3 percent at Rs 140.2 crore.
• Margin at 21.3 percent versus 19.3 percent
• Increase in inventory worth Rs 15.5 crore in the current quarter.

VST Tillers Tractors (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 17.6 percent at Rs 144.6 crore.
• Net profit down 50.8 percent at Rs 9.2 crore.
• Ebitda down 88.5 percent at Rs 2.8 crore.
• Margin at 1.9 percent versus 13.9 percent.
• Other Income at Rs 16 crore versus Rs 5.8 crore.

EID Parry (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 14.1 percent at Rs 5838.4 crore.
• Net profit down 50.4 percent at Rs 106.1 crore.
• Ebitda up 2.1 percent at Rs 603.6 crore.
• Margin at 10.3 percent versus 11.6 percent.
• Other Income of Rs 73.2 crore in base quarter.

Goodricke (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 9.2 percent at Rs 219.1 crore.
• Net profit down 3.6 percent at Rs 53.1 crore.
• Ebitda down 7.9 percent at Rs 53.4 crore.
• Margin at 24.4 percent versus 28.9 percent.

India Energy Exchange (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 19.9 percent at Rs 66.9 crore.
• Net profit up 30.6 percent at Rs 42.7 crore.
• Ebitda up 17.6 percent at Rs 54.7 crore.
• Margin at 81.8 percent versus 83.3 percent.

Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 11.8 percent at Rs 534 crore.
• Net loss at Rs 51.9 crore versus net profit of Rs 2.8 crore.
• Ebitda down 85.3 percent at Rs 13 crore.
• Margin at 2.4 percent versus 14.7 percent.

Fortis Malar Hospitals (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue flat at Rs 37.1 crore
• Net profit down 79 percent at Rs 0.4 crore.
• Ebitda loss at Rs 0.5 crore versus Ebitda of Rs 1.2 crore.

Wockhardt (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 10 percent at Rs 1,126 crore.
• Net loss of Rs 23 crore versus net loss of Rs 3 crore
• Other income of Rs 55 crore in base quarter
• Ebitda up 6.5 times at Rs 52 crore versus Rs 8 crore.
• Margin at 4.6 percent versus 0.8 percent.

IFGL Refractories (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 10 percent at Rs 219 crore
• Net profit up 47 percent at Rs 14 crore.
• Ebtida up 13 percent at Rs 30.5 crore.
• Margin at 13.9 percent versus 13.6 percent.

Bulk Deals

• Texmaco Infra & Holdings: Promoter Zuari Global acquired 17.2 lakh shares or 1.35 percent equity at Rs 58 each.
• Setco Automotive: Promoter Setco Engineering sold 15 lakh shares or 1.12 percent equity at Rs 38 each.

Who’s Meeting Whom

• Great Eastern Shipping to meet Nalanda Capital on Nov. 12.
• TVS Motor to meet JP Morgan on Nov. 28.

Insider Trading

• Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers promoter McDowell Holdings sold 33,000 shares on Nov. 06.

(As reported on November 9)

Trading Tweaks

• Sakuma Exports ex-date for share split from Rs 10 to Rs 1.
• Nalco and NLC ex-date for buyback window to open.
• Eldeco Housing & Industries price band revised to 10 percent.
• Elpro International , KIC Metaliks price band revised to 5 percent.

Money Market Update

• Rupee ended at 72.50/$ on Friday versus 73/$ on Tuesday.

F&O Cues

• Nifty November futures closed trading at 10624, premium of 38 points.
• Nifty November OI down 0.4 percent; Nifty Bank Nov OI up 7.6 percent.
• Max OI for November series at 11,000 Call, OI at 29.9 lakh shares.
• Max OI for November series at 10,200 Put, OI at 32.4 lakh shares.

Put-Call Ratio

• Nifty PCR at 1.61 from 1.60.
• Nifty Bank PCR at 1.17 from 1.11.

Fund Flows

Brokerage Radar

On Titan

Deutsche Bank Research

• Maintained ‘Buy’; hiked price target to Rs 1,100 from Rs 1,050
• Good September quarter with strong jewellery sales growth
• Second half of the current financial year is expected to be better with retail sales growing 29 percent on a yearly basis in first 40 days of December quarter.
• Expect virtuous cycle of market share gains to continue.

Morgan Stanley

• Maintained ‘Overweight’ with a price target of Rs 1,250
• September quarter’s Ebitda adjusting for one-offs is below estimates on account of higher ad and other expenses.
• Believe Titan is on track to achieve above 25 percent revenue growth in jewellery for the current financial year.
• Watch segment performance ahead of expectations.

More Calls

Nomura on Tata Motors

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 260.
• JLR October 2018 global retail sales remained weak.
• Company indicated that the turnaround plan with dealers to balance production with demand in China.
• JLR will have a tough December quarter due to inventory corrections.

Motilal Oswal on Amara Raja

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 902 from Rs 858.
• Strong revenues supported by growth in auto/industrial/exports.
• Ebitda margin driven by favorable mix and lower lead price.
• Expect healthy growth in Industrial and four wheeler battery revenue.

Motilal Oswal on India Cement

• Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 93 from Rs 96.
• Revenue inline; net profit miss due to forex headwinds.
• Revenue growth led by healthy demand in south market.
• Cut estimates to factor in higher depreciation and interest rate on announced capacity expansion.