All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 17

Japanese stocks led Asian equities lower on Monday after the country reported a much deeper economic contraction than expected before any hit from the coronavirus.

The Topix Index slid more than 1 percent in early trading. Shares dipped in South Korea and Australia, but U.S. futures were slightly higher. Volumes may be lower than average Monday due to a U.S. holiday. Treasuries won’t trade. The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, fell 0.2 percent to 12,105 as of 6:55 a.m.

Short on time? Well, then listen to this podcast for a quick summary of All You Need To Know before the opening bell.

Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities today

• The benchmark for American equities jumped 1.6 percent last week, ending at an all-time high. The S&P 500 Index advanced four out of five days, posting three records along the way.
• Crude held firm on Monday, following its biggest weekly gain of the year, after China, Hong Kong and Singapore pledged extra stimulus measures to help the region’s economy recover from the impact of coronavirus.

Get your daily fix of global markets here.

Earnings Reaction To Watch

ONGC (Q3, QoQ)

• Revenue down 3.2 percent at Rs 23,710.1 crore (Estimate: Rs 24,007 crore)
• Net profit down 33.7 percent at Rs 4,151.6 crore (Estimate: Rs 5,258 crore)
• Ebitda down 7.5 percent at Rs 12,298.4 crore (Estimate: Rs 12,124 crore)
• Margin at 51.9 percent versus 54.3 percent (Estimate: 50.5 percent)
• Net realisations at $58.24/barrel versus $60.3/barrel
• Other Income down 47 percent at Rs 1,402.5 crore

SAIL (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue up 4.5 percent at Rs 16,541.3 crore
• Net loss at Rs 429.6 crore versus net profit of Rs 616.3 crore
• Ebitda down 61.3 percent at Rs 997.6 crore
• Margin at 6 percent versus 16.3 percent

Balkrishna Industries (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue down 3.5 percent at Rs 1,155.8 crore
• Net profit up 48.2 percent at Rs 223.8 crore
• Ebitda up 13.4 percent at Rs 346.2 crore
• Margin at 30 percent versus 25.5 percent

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue up 7.1 percent at Rs 2,735.6 crore
• Net profit up 64.1 percent at Rs 190.8 crore
• Ebitda up 1.3 percent at Rs 440.2 crore
• Margin at 16.1 percent versus 17 percent

Embassy Office Parks REIT (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue from operations up 14 percent at Rs 545.9 crore
• Net operating income up 16 percent at Rs 463.9 crore
• Portfolio occupancy up 220 basis points to 95.1 percent

IRB Infra (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue down 2.6 percent at Rs 1,742.6 crore
• Net profit down 27 percent at Rs 159.7 crore
• Ebitda down 6.2 percent at Rs 713.6 crore
• Margin at 41 percent versus 42.5 percent

Muthoot Finance (Q3, YoY)

• Net Interest Income up 43.8 percent at Rs 1702.5 crore
• Net profit up 63.7 percent at Rs 841 crore
• Gross NPA in Gold Loan Business at 1.87 percent

Sun TV Network (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue down 9.7 percent at Rs 847.8 crore
• Net profit up 7.2 percent at Rs 384.5 crore
• Ebitda down 12.3 percent at Rs 595.2 crore
• Margin at 70.2 percent versus 72.3 percent

Edelweiss Financial Services (Q3, YoY)

• Net Interest Income down 60.2 percent at Rs 209.6 crore
• Net profit down 92.6 percent at Rs 16.7 crore
• Impairment cost up 93 percent at Rs 220.5 crore

Finolex Cables (Q3, YoY)

• Revenue down 6.3 percent at Rs 702.4 crore
• Net profit up 10.1 percent at Rs 102.7 crore
• Ebitda down 8.9 percent at Rs 99.9 crore
• Margin at 14.2 percent versus 14.6 percent

Earnings To Watch

• Firstsource Solutions
• Huhtamaki PPL

Indian ADRs

Stocks To Watch

• Telecom AGR Issue: Bharti Airtel has told DoT it will deposit Rs. 10,000 crore of the AGR dues by Feb. 20. The operator will pay the remaining balance amount before the next date of hearing. The AGR dues case will come up in Supreme Court on March 17.
• CARE Ratings to institute enquiry in the matter of interference by officials of the ratings agency including the erstwhile Chairman SB Mainak and the erstwhile MD and CEO Rajesh Mokashi in the rating process in the last 3 years. The board has already initiated the process of appointing the MD and CEO. SEBI has directed the company to start the enquiry. Forensic auditor’s report brings out prima facie findings of interference by the erstwhile MD in influencing the rating process, hence, a stringent action is required against the erstwhile MD. Board to constitute a Committee of independent directors to oversee the enquiry proceedings.
• Hero MotoCorp said that the ongoing issue of coronavirus in China has affected the supply of some components to the company’s manufacturing facilities in India. This is likely to impact planned production by around 10 percent for February. However, the wholesale dispatches of vehicles to the dealers during the month remain unaffected. Any further impact on production will depend on the developing situation in China.
• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories received zero observation by U.S.FDA for its formulations plant in Andhra Pradesh.
• Lupin has launched Moxifloxacin Ophthalmic Solution. The drug is indicated for the treatment of bacterial conjunctivitis.
• MT Educare promoters to sell 7.71 percent stake via offer for sale. Promoters to sell up to 55.65 lakh shares at a floor price of Rs 14.5 per share for Rs 8.07 crore. The floor price is at a discount of 7 percent to the closing price as on Feb. 14. Another five percent discount will be offered to retail investors at cut off price.
• CCI approved the acquisition of Wabco Holding by ZF Friedrichshafen AG, subject to compliance of certain modifications.
• Rites emerged as the successful bidder for supply of locomotives and coaches for Rs 680 crore to Indian Railways.
• Avenue Supermart OFS to Non-Retail investors gets 3.4 times demand on Day 1.
• HUDCO achieved loan sanctions of Rs 7,507.19 crore and loan releases of Rs 7,730.53 crore as on Jan. 31, for the current fiscal year.
• Dilip Buildcon received a letter of acceptance from Airports Authority of India for EPC project in Gujarat, whose bid cost stood at Rs 570.1 crore.
• Mangalam Cement: Board approved a proposal to increase clinker capacity by 3MTPA with a capital investment of Rs 125 crore in existing plant in Rajasthan.
• UCO Bank: Shareholders approved a proposal of issue of 129.5 crore shares at Rs 6.54 per share, aggregating to Rs 2142 crore on a preferential basis to Government of India.
• Andhra Bank reduced MCLR across various tenors with effect from Feb. 15. One Month MCLR at 7.8 percent and One Year MCLR at 8.2 percent.
• Prabhat Dairy: Board approved the merger of wholly-owned arm Cheese Land Agro with the company.
• Titagarh Wagons commissioned its second research vessel for the Government of India.

Brokerage Radar

CLSA On Sun TV

• Advertising and broadcast revenues were lower than expected with a 14 percent YoY decline
• Subscription revenues were ahead at 18 percent YoY growth
• Cut our 20-22 revenue and Ebitda estimates by 9-13 percent to factor in the ad revenue miss
• Reiterate Buy with Rs 600 target price based on 12.5 times PE.

Morgan Stanley on Indusind Bank

• Maintained ‘Overweight’; cut price target to Rs 1,450 from Rs 1,800.
• Cut EPS estimates for the next two financial years by 29 percent and 11 percent respectively.
• Lower earnings estimates driven by continued credit challenges (led by telecom).
• Increased our credit cost estimates by around 95 basis points and 20 basis points for the next two financial years respectively.
• Expect stock to remain range-bound near term, after sharp de-rating, and do well over next year as NPL formation slows

CLSA on Vodafone Idea

• Cut price target to Rs 3.5 from Rs 5.5.
• Encouraging 3QFY20 results, but retain Sell rating on adverse court order.
• Vodafone Idea’s AGR burden is huge at Rs44200 cr/US$6bn.

On AGR Dues

Edelweiss

• Bharti Airtel: Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target at Rs 634.
• Bharti Infratel: Maintained ‘Hold’ with a price target at Rs 284.
• See this event as a net positive for Bharti Airtel on potential market share gains.
• Bharti Airtel is better placed to gain revenue market share considering it is the only private operator left with 2G network.
• Bharti Infratel will have negative consequences of change in market structure.
• Chances of government intervention slim, but cannot be ruled out considering potential impact on PSUs with AGR liabilities.

SBICAP

• Bharti Airtel: Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target at Rs 580.
• RIL: Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target at Rs 1,898.
• Duopoly is now seemingly certain.
• Positive for Jio as it may gain market share.
• Ability to raise tariffs to help Jio.
• Bharti Airtel would have thrived better in Vodafone's presence.
• Given significant uncertainty around survival of Vodafone Idea our target and ratings remain under review.

Motilal Oswal

• Bharti Airtel: Raised price target to Rs 650
• Remain positive on Bharti Airtel.
• Far-reaching serious ramifications on the telecom and banking sectors
• Vodafone faces a risk of a shutdown with large-scale debt default, job losses and subscriber churn/annoyance
• Government could see the biggest impact through deferred spectrum debt default Rs 90000 cr
• A duopoly market will likely benefit Bharti (along with RJio) with incremental Ebitda potential of Rs 10000 crore in 2021-22.

Axis Capital

• Bharti Airtel to continue to gain market share, now at accelerated pace
• Vodafone has limited ability to raise further debt from the banking system.
• Current total AGR liability implies steep equity dilution for Vodafone (current market capitalisation of Rs 9900 crore; promoters shareholding: ~72 percent) if it plans to infuse equity capital.
• The adverse judgment has put Vodafone’s viability in question.

On ONGC

Nomura

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target at Rs 175
• Q3 miss driven by lower oil sales/realisation and higher opex
• Weak volumes, oil production fell 4 percent YoY and gas production fell 7.7 percent YoY
• Oil prices are weaker in 4Q and gas prices poised for further of more than 20 percent cut from April 1.
• OVL’s profitability improved despite lower oil production.

CLSA

• Reiterate ‘Buy’ cut price target to Rs 180 from Rs 225.
• In-line Ebitda but 18 percent miss on Q3 PAT.
• 14-20 percent cut in FY20-22 EPS estimates.
• EPS cut on weaker 4QFY20 crude price, lower oil production, a weaker gas price, and higher depletion.

Bulk Deals

Godrej Agrovet

• Promoter Godrej Industries acquired 16.1 lakh shares (0.84 percent) at Rs 538.93 each
• Vsciences Investments sold 18.92 lakh shares (0.99 percent) at Rs 539.13 each

Sudarshan Chemical

• Promoters Kishor Rathi and Rohit Rathi sold 10 lakh shares (1.44 percent) at Rs 455 each
• Axis MF acquired 7.5 lakh shares (1.08 percent) at Rs 455 each

India Grid Trust

• Lant Employees Welfare Foundation acquired 1.04 crore shares at Rs 96.35 each
• Vedanta sold 1.29 crore shares at Rs 96.35 each

Pledge Share Details

• Sun Pharma created a pledge of 1.08 crore shares on favour of Barclays Merchant Bank on Feb. 11.
• Forbes promoter Shapoorji Pallonji revoked pledge of 9.5 lakh shares on Feb. 11.
• JSPL promoter OPJ Trading revoked pledge of 30 lakh shares on Feb. 14.
• JSW Energy promoter Glebe Trading created pledge of 1.3 crore shares on Feb. 12.

Trading Tweaks

• Gujarat Borosil ex-date for amalgamation
• Noida Toll Bridge to move into ASM Framework
• Reliance Capital, Jain Irrigation Systems, Adhunik Industries, JBF Industries, Apollo Finvest to move out of ASM Framework
• HSIL, Setco Automotive, Shemaroo Entertainment, Veto Switchgears And Cables to move into short term ASM Framework
• Setco Automotive price band revised to 10 percent
• Mcleod Russel, RattanIndia Power price band revised to 5 percent

Who’s Meeting Whom

• Dr Lal Pathlabs to meet Hermes Investment, Mathews International and Comgest on Feb. 17.
• KEC International to meet Antique Group and HDFC Securities from Feb. 18-20.
• Cigniti Technologies to meet Narnolia Financial Advisors, IndiaNivesh PMS and other investors from Feb. 17-18.
• SH Kelkar to meet Harding Loevner on Feb. 17.
• Pidlite Industries to meet Blackrock on Feb. 17.
• Majesco to meet Amansa Holdings on Feb. 17.
• Cipla to meet Credit Suisse, ICICI Pru Life Insurance and SBI MF from Feb. 18-19.
• Tata Steel to meet Thornburg Investment Management and Fidelity International from Feb. 17-18.

Money Market Update

• Rupee closed at 71.37/$ on Friday from 71.33/$ on Thursday.

F&O Cues

Futures

• Nifty February futures closed at 12,129.6, premium of 16.2 points
• Nifty February futures OI down 2.4 percent, sheds 3 lakh shares in OI
• Nifty Bank Feb futures closed at 30,902.1, premium 67.3 points versus 1 point.
• Nifty Bank futures OI down 1 percent, sheds 10,000 shares in OI

Options

• Nifty PCR at 1.27 versus 1.48 (across all series)

Nifty Weekly Expiry: Feb 20

• Max OI on call side at 12,200 (24.9 lakh shares)
• Max OI on put side at 12,000 (14 lakh shares)
• OI addition seen at 12,200C (+9.6 lakh shares), 12,300C (+9.4 lakh shares)

Nifty Monthly Expiry: Feb 27

• Max OI on call side at 12,500 (27 lakh shares)
• Max OI on put side at 12,000 (36.9 lakh shares)

Stocks In F&O Ban

• Yes Bank