All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 11
Asian stocks began the week on a cautious note as doubts on the possibility for progress ahead of a potentially pivotal week for U.S.-China trade talks crept back into markets.
Shares in Sydney edged lower, while Korean stocks were little changed. Futures indicated a lower start for equities in Hong Kong. Chinese exchanges reopen after a one-week holiday during which a gauge of the country’s firms traded in Hong Kong fell. Japan is shut for a holiday, so Treasuries won’t trade until the London.
The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, fell 1.14 percent to 10,943.60 as of 7:11 a.m.
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Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities today.
U.S. Market Check
- U.S. stocks ended virtually unchanged Friday after a tech-led rally in the final minutes of trading salvaged the session.
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 2.63 percent, the lowest in more than a week.
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent.
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.1 percent.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures retreated 0.4 percent.
- Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed. The underlying gauge rose 0.1 percent Friday.
- Brent crude traded 0.32 percent lower at $61.90 per barrel.
- West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.3 percent $52.55 a barrel.
- Gold advanced 0.5 percent to $1,315.61 an ounce Friday.
London Metal Exchange
- Aluminium ended lower for the third day, down 0.69 percent.
- Tin resumed rally after a one-day blip, ended 0.48 percent lower.
- Zinc resumed declines after a one-day rally, ended 0.99 percent lower.
- Copper ended lower for the second day, down 0.58 percent.
- Nickel resumed declined after a one-day rally, ended 3.2 percent lower.
- Lead ended flat.
(As on Feb. 8)
Key Events To Watch This Week
- Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to keep interest rates at minus 0.25 percent on Wednesday after the first increase in more than seven years in December.
- Data Wednesday is expected to show U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in January, after falling 0.1 percent in December.
- If no deal is reached on the U.S-Mexico border wall, parts of the federal U.S. government may shut down again later this week when stopgap government funding expires.
Stocks To Watch
- Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories: Received a Form 483 with 11 observations from the U.S. FDA after the inspection of Formulations Manufacturing Plant in Hyderabad. The company said they will address the above issue comprehensively within the stipulated time.
- Bharti Airtel’s Kenya arm signed an agreement with Telkom Kenya to combine operations and will be called ‘Airtel-Telkom’. Both companies will merge their mobile, enterprise and carrier services. The company says that finalisation and closure of the transaction is subject to approval by the relevant authorities.
- Reliance ADAG Group: Edelweiss Financial Services and L&T Finance said that all actions taken on the Reliance ADAG Group share are legal. The financial services companies stated that they had granted credit facilities against pledge of shares to Reliance ADAG Group. Despite reaching out numerous times to the Anil Ambani led Group to address concerns on shortfall in margins, the group failed to address any of the concerns raised by Edelweiss Group and L&T Finance, but also there was a breach of contractual obligations. On Feb. 4 Edelweiss Group liquidated its collaterals as per the agreed terms, while L&T Finance enforced its rights of invocation and sold pledged shares to the extent of its outstanding dues by following the due process of contract and law.
- State Bank of India reduced its interest rates on home loans up to Rs 30 lakh by 5 basis points. Rajnish Kumar, Chairman, SBI said, “As the nation’s largest lender, we have always kept customer interests at the centre. SBI has the highest market share of the home loans market and it is only appropriate that we empower the large lower and middle class segment by transmitting the rate cut announced by the RBI”.
- Reliance Industries: Reliance Brands increased its stake in Future 101 Design to 15 percent for Rs 2 crore. The company also stated that its arm Reliance Retail Ventures increased its stake in Genesis Colours to 29.07 percent for Rs 45 crore.
- Prakash Industries said that it has modernised its Rolling Mill in Chattisgarh to improve the production of wire rods. The company also stated that it is on schedule to complete its Sponge Iron Kiln by March 2019, thereby adding sponge iron production capacity of 2 lakh tonnes per annum along with waste heat power co-generation. Lastly the company has also raised its product prices by over Rs 3,000 per tonne due to rising global steel prices.
- Rural Electrification Corporation: Board approved incorporation of 5 project specific Special Purpose Vehicles for its transmission arm.
- Allahabad Bank, Punjab National Bank, Corporation Bank: RBI Imposed a penalty of Rs 1.5 crore on Allahabad Bank and Rs 1 crore on Punjab National Bank due to regulation issues. The central bank also penalised Corporation Bank Rs 2 crore due to lapses in monitoring of end use of funds and exchange of information with other banks.
- EID Parry: The company released its sales data for January with sugar sales at 0.24 MT and export sugar sales at 0.19 MT. That’s with recovery at 10.97 percent and power export of 284 lakh units. The company also stated that around 7.94 lakh MT of sugarcane was crushed for the afore-mentioned period, while 57 lakh liters of alcohol was sold.
- Power Finance Corporation: NCLT approved amalgamation of the company’s wholly owned arm ‘PFC Green Energy’ with self.
- KIOCL’s board approved shareholders agreement between and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd. for setting up of a 2 MTPA capacity pellet plant on joint venture basis at RINL’s premises in Vishakapatnam.
- Balkrishna Industries expects the first phase of Carbon Black’s 60,000 MTPA facility will be commissioned by the end of March quarter.
- KEC International has completed its entire stake sale in ‘KEC Bikaner Sikar Transmission’ to Adani Transmission, after obtaining regulatory approvals.
- KRBL: Board approved to challenge the demand order given by the IT Department. The demand order is for Rs 1,296 crore pertaining assessment proceeding from 2010 to 2017. The company will appeal this matter to the appellate authorities.
- Adani Transmission completed acquisition of KEC International’s project for Rs 228 crore. With the completion of this acquisition, the cumulative network of ATL will reach around 13,450 ckt km, out of which around 10,355 ckt km are under operation and the balance 3,095 ckt km, are under various stages of construction. With this scale of operations, ATL will enjoy substantial benefits in terms of cost optimisation, shared resources and will fortify its position of being the largest private sector transmission company in the country.
- Cipla said that its subsidiary InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc has completed the first tranche of 33.3 percent stake buy in U.S.-based speciality business firm Avenue Therapeutics.
- Lupin received two observations from the U.S. FDA after the inspection of Goa manufacturing facility. The company said that both the observations are procedural in nature and the company is confident of addressing them confidently.
- TVS Srichakra: Board approved company’s plan for setting up Indonesia and Vietnam units.
- Time Technoplast said Aburi Ltd., U.K. had withdrawn the complaint filed against the company with Economic Offences Wing of Mumbai Police and has resumed business ties.
- IndusInd Bank to raise funds via debt on Feb 13.
- Voltas to invest over Rs 500 crore in setting up a manufacturing facility in South India. To company plans to expand the capacity of Pantnagar plant and start the construction of new manufacturing facility spread over 65 acres in Tirupati.
- Engineers India to provide project management consultancy services to Mongol Refinery for setting up of an oil refinery in Mongolia.
- IDFC to sell stake in IDFC Securities to TCG in one or more tranches over a period of time. Yet to sign definitive agreement.
Nifty Earnings To Watch
- Eicher Motors
Other Earnings To Watch
- Aarti Drugs
- Amara Raja Batteries
- Motherson Sumi Systems
- PI Industries
- Power Finance Corporation
- Andhra Bank
- Andhra Cements
- Andrew Yule
- Spencers Retail
- Somany Ceramics
- Astral Poly Technik
- Avadh Sugar & Energy
- Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances
- Caplin Point Laboratories
- CARE Ratings
- Tide Water Oil Company
- CESC Ventures
- Corporation Bank
- Triveni Turbine
- Dynamatic Technologies
- Everest Kanto Cylinder
- Sterling Biotech
- Federal-Mogul Goetze
- GE T&D
- Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals
- Gujarat Industries Power
- Hindustan Aeronautics
- Hindustan Copper
- India Cements
- Ind-Swift Laboratories
- ITD Cementation
- Jay Shree Tea & Industries
- Jaypee Infratech
- JBM Auto
- JBF Industries
- KNR Constructions
- LKP Finance
- Maharashtra Seamless
- Mangalam Drugs And Organics
- Max Financial Services
- Max India
- McDowell Holdings
- Reliance Home Finance
- Great Eastern Shipping Company
- Meghmani Organics
- Nectar Lifesciences
Earnings Reaction To Watch
Tata Steel (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 23.2 percent to Rs 41,219.9 crore.
- Net profit up 76.5 percent to Rs 2,284.1 crore.
- Ebitda up 18 percent to Rs 6,723.4 crore.
- Margin at 16.3 percent versus 17.03 percent.
BPCL (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 9.5 percent to Rs 79,168.9 crore.
- Net profit down 59.4 percent to Rs 495.1 crore.
- Ebitda down 69.5 percent to Rs 737.3 crore.
- Margin to 0.9 percent versus 3.3 percent.
- Other income up 80 percent to Rs 967.2 crore.
- GRM at $2.78/bbl versus $5.57/bbl.
- Declares interim dividend of Rs 11 per share.
NALCO (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 13.81 percent to Rs 2,719 crore.
- Net profit down 58.2 percent to Rs 301.8 crore.
- Ebitda up 49.2 percent to Rs 513.1 crore.
- Margin at 18.9 percent versus 14.4 percent.
- Exceptional gain of Rs 801.5 crore in base quarter.
- Employee benefit expenses down 34 percent to Rs 486.7 crore.
Thermax (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 28.6 percent to Rs 1,436.6 crore.
- Net profit up 28 percent to Rs 75 crore.
- Ebitda up 12.2 percent to Rs 107.3 crore.
- Margin at 7.5 percent versus 8.6 percent.
- Raw material costs up 41 percent to Rs 748.1 crore.
- Deferred tax reversal of Rs 97.4 crore in current quarter.
JK Lakshmi Cement (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 11.7 percent to Rs 935 crore.
- Net profit up 72.1 percent to Rs 14.8 crore.
- Ebitda up 4.2 percent to Rs 98.3 crore.
- Margin at 10.5 percent versus 11.3 percent.
NHPC (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 4.9 percent to Rs 1,571.4 crore.
- Net profit down 73.5 percent to Rs 182.2 crore.
- Ebitda down 24.1 percent to Rs 595.9 crore.
- Margin at 37.9 percent versus 52.4 percent.
- Deferred tax of Rs 113.3 crore in base quarter.
- Employee benefit expenses up 47 percent to Rs 551.3 crore.
Avanti Feeds (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 18.2 percent to Rs 835.3 crore.
- Net profit down 26.7 percent to Rs 73.6 crore.
- Ebitda down 28.6 percent to Rs 109.6 crore.
- Margin at 13.1 percent versus 21.7 percent.
- Raw material costs up 29 percent to Rs 633.5 crore.
SKF India (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 9.6 percent to Rs 767.7 crore.
- Net profit up 2.7 percent to Rs 88.5 crore.
- Ebitda down 1.1 percent to Rs 121.7 crore.
- Margin at 15.9 percent versus 17.6 percent.
- Other Income up 69 percent to Rs 33.8 crore.
Sun TV Network (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 32.4 percent to Rs 904.5 crore.
- Net profit up 31.6 percent to Rs 351.3 crore.
- Ebitda up 35.6 percent to Rs 667.3 crore.
- Margin at 73.8 percent versus 72 percent.
Amber Enterprises (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 14.9 percent to Rs 388.8 crore.
- Net profit to Rs 3.8 crore versus Rs 0.1 crore.
- Ebitda down 8.3 percent to Rs 22.1 crore.
- Margin at 5.7 percent versus 7.1 percent.
- Finance cost of Rs 16.6 crore in base quarter.
- Inventory loss of Rs 36.4 crore in the current quarter.
Visaka Industries (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue down 0.8 percent to Rs 239.9 crore.
- Net profit down 36.4 percent to Rs 9.1 crore.
- Ebitda down 29.4 percent to Rs 24.3 crore.
- Margin at 10.1 percent versus 14.2 percent.
Balkrishna Industries (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 9 percent to Rs 1,205.6 crore.
- Net profit down 23.6 percent to Rs 144.7 crore.
- Ebitda up 3.8 percent to Rs 300.9 crore.
- Margin at 25 percent versus 26.2 percent.
- Other Income of Rs 77.7 crore in base quarter.
VA Tech Wabag (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue down 23.5 percent to Rs 661.9 crore.
- Net profit down 48.8 percent to Rs 15.4 crore.
- Ebitda down 36.5 percent to Rs 49.3 crore.
- Margin at 7.4 percent versus 9 percent.
Allcargo Logistics (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 22 percent to Rs 1,803 crore.
- Net profit up 37 percent to Rs 48 crore.
- Ebitda up 20 percent to Rs 112.5 crore.
- Margin at 6.2 percent versus 6.4 percent.
PSP Projects (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 53 percent to Rs 261 crore.
- Net profit up 43 percent to Rs 21.5 crore.
- Ebitda up 33 percent to Rs 36 crore.
- Margin at 13.8 percent versus 15.8 percent.
Mirza International (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 21 percent to Rs 307 crore.
- Net profit down 64 percent to Rs 7.5 crore.
- Ebitda down 36 percent to Rs 29.5 crore.
- Margin at 9.6 percent versus 18.1 percent.
TVS Srichakra (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 18 percent to Rs 582 crore.
- Net profit down 23 percent to Rs 24 crore.
- EBITDA down 4.5 percent to Rs 63 crore.
- Margin at 10.8 percent versus 13.4 percent.
IDFC (Q3, YoY)
- Net interest income down 33 percent to Rs 8 crore.
- Net profit to Rs 26 crore versus Rs 2 crore.
- Tax credit of Rs 31 crore in current quarter.
Seshasayee Paper (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 20 percent to Rs 354.5 crore.
- Net profit up 63 percent to Rs 50.5 crore.
- Ebitda up 75.5 percent to Rs 82.5 crore.
- Margin at 23.3 percent versus 15.9 percent.
Finolex Industries (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 5 percent to Rs 757 crore.
- Net profit up 14 percent to Rs 79 crore.
- Ebitda up 10.5 percent to Rs 126 crore.
- Margin at 16.6 percent versus 15.8 percent.
Toul Auto (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 44 percent to Rs 186 crore.
- Net profit up 60 percent to Rs 16 crore.
- Ebitda up 60 percent to Rs 24 crore.
- Margin at 12.9 percent versus 11.6 percent.
Lumax Auto (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 15.5 percent to Rs 320 crore.
- Net profit up 31 percent to Rs 17 crore.
- Ebitda flat to Rs 28.5 crore.
- Margin at 8.9 percent versus 10.1 percent.
VRL Logistics (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 13 percent to Rs 551 crore.
- Net profit up 8 percent to Rs 27 crore.
- Ebitda up 14 percent to Rs 70 crore.
- Margin at 12.7 percent versus 12.6 percent.
Thyrocare Technologies (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 15 percent at Rs 96.3 crore.
- Net profit down 6 percent to Rs 20.2 crore.
- Ebitda up 0.4 percent to Rs 35.5 crore.
- Margin at 36.9 percent versus 42.2 percent
Som Distilleries (Q3, FY19)
- Revenue up 58 percent to Rs 130 crore.
- Net profit up 14 percent to Rs 4.4 crore.
- Ebitda up 3.3 percent to Rs 11.7 crore.
- Margin at 13.8 percent versus 17.4 percent.
Apollo Hospitals (Q3, FY19)
- Revenue up 17 percent to Rs 2,169 crore.
- Net profit up 29 percent to Rs 86.9 crore.
- Ebitda up 21 percent to Rs 267.9 crore.
- Margin at 12.3 percent versus 11.9 percent.
Balkrishna Industries (Q3, YoY)
- Revenue up 9 percent to Rs 1205.6 crore.
- Net profit down 23.6 percent to Rs 144.7 crore.
- Ebitda up 3.8 percent to Rs 300.9 crore.
- Margin to 25 percent versus 26.2 percent.
- Foreign exchange loss of Rs 32.4 crore versus Foreign exchange gain of Rs 73 crore.
- Spencer’s Retail: UTI MF sold 5.15 lakh shares at Rs 128.2 each
- HMG Globetrotter acquired 4.43 lakh shares or 2.78 percent equity at Rs 111.5 each.
- Algot Holding APS sold 2.55 lakh shares or 1.6 percent equity at Rs 111.5 each.
- Liljeborg Invest APS sold 1.87 lakh shares or 1.17 percent equity at Rs 111.5 each.
- Ajanta Pharma ex-date for share buyback.
- Siti Networks to move into ASM Framework.
- Reliance Home Finance to move into Short Term ASM Framework.
Who’s Meeting Whom
- Escorts to meet Nippon Life, Artisan Partners and other investors from Feb. 11-19
- Greaves Cotton to meet ICICI Prudential MF on Feb. 11
- Mahanagar to meet Oppenhimer and Times Square Capital Management on Feb. 12
- Dixon Technologies to meet Jupiter AMC, Polar Capital and other investors from Feb. 11-12
- Raymond promoter group JK Investors acquired 1.5 lakh shares on Feb. 7
- Srikalahasthi Pipes promoters acquired 1.5 lakh shares from Feb. 5-7
- Bajaj Auto promoter Bajaj Holdings and Investment acquired 1.08 lakh shares on Feb. 7
(As reported on Feb. 8)
Money Market Update
- Rupee ended at 71.31/$ versus 71.45/$ on Thursday.
- Nifty February futures closed trading at 10957, premium of 13 points.
- Max OI for February series at 11,000 Call, OI at 37.3 lakh shares.
- Max OI for February series at 10,400 Put, OI at 31.5 lakh shares.
Stocks In F&O Ban
- In Ban: Adani Enterprises, IDBI, DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Power.
- New in Ban: Adani Enterprises.
- Nifty PCR at 1.59 versus 1.78.
- Nifty Bank PCR at 1.04 versus 1.12.
CLSA on Aurobindo Pharma
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 820
- December quarter was in line and reported a healthy growth in the U.S. region.
- Focus in 2019-20 will be to integrate recent acquisitions.
- Performance of these acquisitions could drive a rerating.
CLSA on Sun TV
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 770.
- Big beat on subscriptions, advertisement revenues and movies.
- Growing focus on SunNxt. Management confident of breaking even in two years.
- Stock inexpensive at a 30 percent discount to five-year average.
CLSA on Dr. Lal PathLabs
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 1,320.
- Margin missed in December quarter; Volume-led growth focus to continue.
- City-specific approach to expand in West and South.
- Catalysts: Kolkata region growth and volume/realisation growth.
CLSA on United Spirits
- Maintained ‘Sell’; cut price target to Rs 450 from Rs 500.
- Negatives: rising input prices, difficulty in product price hikes.
- Recent commentary from USL, Diageo and Radico Khaitan points to uncertainty ahead.
- Stress on state fiscal adds to further risks of higher taxation on liquor.
CLSA on Gujarat Gas
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 150 from Rs 156.
- Big beat driven by margin surprise.
- Volume growth disappoints.
- Soft LNG price is a tailwind for 2019.
Nomura on Cummins India
- Downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 765 from Rs 890.
- Weaker exports and poll-related infra award slowdown to impact gross margins.
- Turning cautious on weak export outlook.
- Revival in infra awarding activity is a key upside risk.
Nomura on Gujarat State Petronet
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 200.
- December quarter missed estimates on lower realised tariff, higher operating expenses.
- Expect transmission volumes to fall Reliance’s plants ramp up.
- Outlook muted over medium term.
Investec on Endurance Tech
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 1,385 from Rs 1,400.
- Sustained outperformance; strong revenue growth for India business.
- Traction in proprietary business increasing.
- Outlook for Europe remains uncertain, new order wins reinforces core thesis.
Investec on Bandhan Bank
- Initiated ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 645.
- Superior franchise which can withstand crises and emerge stronger.
- Significant opportunity at the bottom of the pyramid – especially in East.
- Premium valuations justified given the superior franchise quality and high return ratios.
Motilal Oswal on NALCO
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 69 from Rs 90.
- Disappointment in form of higher cost of production.
- Cutting estimates due to lower alumina prices/higher cost of production.
- Best placed to benefit from higher prices; expect volumes to improve.
Citi on Balkrishna Industries
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 1,200.
- December quarter review: Operationally in-line; Net profit hit by forex losses.
- Unchanged volume guidance somewhat allays demand concerns.
- Expect healthy RoEs and if volumes recover stock could rerate.
On Alkem Labs
- Maintained ‘Neutral’; hiked price target to Rs 1,800 from Rs 1,750.
- December quarter missed estimates on weak India revenue; International report another strong quarter.
- Management expects normalization in India business in coming quarters.
- Mid term margin outlook of 18 percent seem to indicate gradual improvement.
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 2,365 from Rs 2,500.
- Profitability impacted by lower gross margin.
- Strong US growth; key domestic formulation business suffers.
- Cut earnings estimated for the current and the next two financial years by 3 percent, 5 percent and 4 percent respectively to factor in increased cost and slowdown.
- Maintained ‘Sell’; hiked price target to Rs 300 from Rs 240.
- Strong refining and lower inventory loss drive December quarter’s earnings beat estimates.
- Marketing segment sees market share losses in key fuels.
- Weak benchmark GRMs and upcoming elections are headwinds.
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 360.
- December quarter beat mainly due to forex gains.
- Refining segment reported better results while marketing segment was weak.
- Outlook is weak with more refining capacity coming online.
On Tata Steel
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 739 from Rs 787.
- Operationally in-line; Thyssen JV – on track.
- Cut estimates to reflect cost inflation and remove SEA operations.
- Reiterate Tata Steel as preferred ferrous proxy.
- Maintained ‘Overweight’; cut price target to Rs 880 from Rs 980
- December quarter was in-line but should improve further.
- Higher iron ore and European JV not priced in.
- Rising iron ore prices bodes well for Tata Steel.