All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On August 3
A street stands empty in Santiago, Chile. (Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg)

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On August 3

Asian markets have begun the new trading week on a mixed note. Rising Covid-19 cases and simmering tensions between U.S. and China are keeping investors at bay.

The U.S. Dollar has risen while treasuries are declining.

U.S. markets posted their fourth straight monthly advance, led by Technology shares.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of the Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, fell 0.4% to 11,058 as of 6:55 a.m.

Short on time? Well, then listen to this podcast for a quick summary of All You Need To Know before the opening bell.

Let’s take a look at the factors that may influence equities in today’s session:

  • Markets in Japan have opened higher while those in Australia and South Korea are declining.
  • Futures on the Dow Jones are little changed. The index ended 0.4% higher on Friday.
  • Among key events this week - the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of England will be announcing their policy decisions on Thursday.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said that he plans to ban the video-sharing app TikTok while Microsoft confirmed that it is talks to buy TikTok's U.S. operations.
  • Bitcoin rose above the $12,000 mark over the weekend - the first such instance since August 2019.
  • Yield on the 10-year treasuries stood at 0.55%.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $39.93 per barrel.

Get your daily fix of the global markets here.

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On August 3

Earnings Fineprint: Tata Motors Q1FY21

  • Net loss widens to Rs 8,438 crore from Rs 3,698 crore
  • Revenue down 48% to Rs 31,983 crore
  • Ebitda down 79% to Rs 653.3 crore
  • Ebitda margin down to 2% from 4.87%
  • Finance costs rise due to high gross borrowing
  • JLR revenue down 44% to 2,859 million pounds
  • Outlook remains uncertain for the year as infections continuing to rise
  • Expect gradual recovery of demand and supply in the coming months
  • Committed to significantly deleverage the business in the coming years
  • Aims to generate positive free cash flows for last three quarters of the year
  • JLR will continue to manage costs and investment spending rigorously
  • Volumes may not pick-up sufficiently to generate a profit in Q2FY21
  • Standalone business has called out a cash improvement program of Rs 6,000 crore

Also read: Tata Motors Q1 Results: Yet Another Quarterly Loss As Covid-19 Hits Sales

Earnings Fineprint: UPL Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 1% to Rs 7,833 crore
  • Net profit up 93% to Rs 551 crore
  • Ebitda up 29% to Rs 1,704 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 21.8% from 16.7%
  • Net working capital days down by 31 days to 84 days
  • Net debt maintained at Rs 22,000 crore
  • Latin America revenue down 16% to Rs 2,015 crore
  • North America revenue down 14% to Rs 1,027 crore
  • North America revenue impacted by Covid-19 related Pre-buying in Q4FY20
  • Europe revenue up 1% to Rs 1,703 crore
  • India revenue up 27% to Rs 1,511 crore
  • Rest of the World revenue up 10% to Rs 1,578 crore
  • Remain well positioned to deliver revenue and Ebitda growth for the full year
  • Strong liquidity in place to meet debt maturities in the next 18-24 months
  • Committed to debt reduction and to maintain investment grade credit rating

Stocks To Watch

  • Indian Oil Corporation: Approves integrated para-xylene and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) complex project plant at Paradip for an investment of Rs 13,805 crore. The project will be completed by early 2024. The petchem complex will have a para-xylene production capacity of 8 lakh tonnes per annum. The company's Mono-Ethyleve Glycol production facility is already under implementation at Paradip and will be operational towards the end of 2021.
  • Tata Motors: Date for completion of the precedent conditions mentioned in the scheme of arrangement between itself and Tata Advanced System for the transfer of the defence undertaking has been extended to December 31. The board has also approved Scheme of Arrangement for the transfer of the passenger vehicle undertaking as a going concern on a slump sale business. Approval has also been given to reduce the company's share capital without extinguishing or reducing its liability on any of its shares by writing down a portion of its securities premium account amounting to Rs 11,173.5 crore, with a corresponding adjustment to the accumulated losses of the company.
  • Bandhan Bank: Promoter Bandhan Financial Holdings intends to sell 33.7 crore shares in a block deal as per the term sheet. The floor price of Rs 311 per share is a 9.9% discount to Friday's closing price. The promoters intend to raise over 10,000 crore or over $1.4 billion from the stake sale.
  • IOL Chemicals & Pharma: Board approves setting up a new unit for manufacturing of 'Metformin' with additional capacity of 7,200 MT per annum. Capex for the same is Rs 28 crore which will be fully funded through internal accruals. The current operating capacity for Metformin is 4,000 MT per annum which is fully utilised.
  • IRB Infra: Gets Letter of Award from NHAI for Hybrid Annuity Project under Bharatmala Pariyojana for a Rs 1,241.8 crore project. The project involves construction of eight-lane controlled expressway of Vadodara-Mumbai expressway in Gujarat for a 27 km stretch.
  • Coal India: Production for the month of July down 3% to 37.36 MT. Offtake down 6.9% to 43.39 MT. Comparison is on a year-on-year basis.
  • Cadila Healthcare: Gets tentative approval from the U.S. FDA to market Carbidopa and Levodopa Extended-Release Capsules. The drug is used in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. The drug will be manufactured at its manufacturing facility in SEZ, Ahmedabad.
  • Kalpataru Power: The company's JV Kohima-Mariana Transmission has commissioned two parts of the scheduled commercial operations. The third part has achieved significant progress and is fast nearing completion. The JV is between the company and Techno Electric & Engineering, with the company holding 74% equity in the venture.
  • Prism Johnson's Q1FY21 Update: Overall cement sales drop 20%. The recovery in May and June volumes was much better than anticipated. Cement demand was reasonably good in the rural areas. Not availed moratorium facility as extended by the banks as per RBI guidelines. Serviced debt obligations as per schedule.
  • Covid-19 Impact on Thermax: Four facilities abroad have operated at a considerably scaled-down pace. Disruption has pulled down revenue and impacted profitability for this quarter. Negative customer sentiment and dip in demand has led to reduction in new order pipeline. Consumer and investor sentiment to be impacted for a year or two and is likely to have a negative impact on the company's performance in FY21.
  • Covid-19 Impact on Muthoot Capital Services: Expect slippages post the end of the moratorium period and enhanced cost of collection. Made contingency provisions to the extend of Rs 50 crore over the last two quarters. Dealerships are seeing a stop-start scenario and hence the impact on disbursements could be severe. Demand of two-wheelers may rise substantially due to importance of proper social distancing and restrictions on public transport.
  • Covid-19 Impact On Just Dial: Average daily traffic in July down 12% as compared to February. Impact on Q1 monetisation saw a decline of 52% year-on-year. Has a strong balance sheet and robust cash position.
  • Yes Bank: Appoints S Radhakrishnan as nominee (non-executive director) of SBI on the bank's board.
  • GIOCL Corporation: Shareholders to consider proposal to raise $150 million through equity or debt on August 5
  • Godrej Properties: Board approves allotment of NCDs worth Rs 1,000 crore on a private placement basis.
  • Redington India: Has entered into an agreement to sell its entire shareholding in Ensure - an after sales service provider, to Accel for Rs 31 crore.
  • Edelweiss Financial Services: Pabrai Investment increased stake to 5.04% from 4.95% on July 29.
  • Punjab National Bank: Reduces MCLR between 15-25 basis points across various tenors from August 1. One-month MCLR now at 6.8% while one-year MCLR at 7.35%
  • Indian Bank: Reduces MCLR by 5 basis points across various tenors from August 3. One-month MCLR at 7.1% and one-year MCLR at 7.35%.
  • Reliance Capital: The Company fails to service debt of interest obligations due on August 2, 2020 with respect to the non-convertible debentures. Company states the failure of non payment was due to its inability to proceed with its asset monetization which is in line with Delhi High Court order dated November 20, 2019 which prohibited to dispose off any possession of assets.
  • MT Educare: On account of strict protocols for educational centres during lockdown, the profitability during April-June quarter was significantly impacted. But since April 2020, more than 350 teaching staff is using the online/web version to cater to students. The company has reduced / delayed majority of its capital expenditure plans, baring marginal replacement cost.

Earnings Reported After Market Hours

Godrej Agrovet Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 8.7% to Rs 1,554.2 crore
  • Net profit up 16.4% to Rs 88.5 crore
  • Ebitda up 16.9% to Rs 165.9 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 10.7% from 8.3%
  • Lower raw material costs aid margins
  • Animal feed business revenue down 15% to Rs 748 crore
  • Vegetable oil business revenue up 8% to Rs 157.4 crore
  • Crop Protection Business revenue up 12% to Rs 320.8 crore
  • Dairy business revenue down 26% to Rs 236.4 crore
  • Poultry and Processed food business revenue up 22% to Rs 165.5 crore
  • All numbers are consolidated and compared on a year-on-year basis

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Q1FY21

  • Net Interest Income up 30% to Rs 458 crore
  • Net profit down 41.4% to Rs 55 crore
  • Gross NPA flat at 0.97%
  • Net NPA at 0.18% from 0.2% last quarter
  • Total provisions made for Covid-19 at Rs 199 crore
  • Additional provisions made for Covid-19 at Rs 129 crore this quarter
  • Advances up 22% to Rs 14,366 crore
  • Deposits up 39% to Rs 11,057 crore
  • All numbers are standalone and compared on a year-on-year basis

Tata Chemicals Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 9.1% to Rs 2,348.2 crore
  • Net profit down 91.3% to Rs 13.3 crore
  • Ebitda down 30.1% to Rs 359.8 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 15.3% from 19.9%
  • Higher input costs impact margins
  • Higher input costs partially offset by lower power, fuel and freight expenses
  • Lower other income and higher depreciation costs impact net profit
  • Basic Chemistry products revenue down 14% to Rs 1,672 crore
  • Specialty products revenue up 7% to Rs 675.9 crore
  • All numbers are consolidated and compared on a year-on-year basis

IOL Chemicals & Pharma Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 6.6% to Rs 460.1 crore
  • Net profit up 49.5% to Rs 127.5 crore
  • Ebitda up 5.2% to Rs 152.1 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 33.1% from 29.3%
  • Lower material costs and lower other expenses aid margins
  • Raw Material costs as % of sales down to 53.9% from 57%
  • Finance costs down 78% to Rs 1.3 crore
  • Deferred tax reversal of Rs 18.2 crore this quarter contributes to profit
  • Chemicals segment revenue down 21% at Rs 155.8 crore
  • Drug segment revenue up 1% to Rs 313.1 crore
  • All numbers are consolidated and compared on a year-on-year basis

Relaxo Footwear Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 44% to Rs 364 crore
  • Net profit down 51% to Rs 24.2 crore
  • Ebitda down 60% to Rs 57.1 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 15.7% from 21.9%
  • Other income up to Rs 6.9 crore from Rs 1.2 crore
  • Observed good demand in open footwear

CreditAccess Grameen Q1FY21

  • Net Interest Income up 55% to Rs 383.2 crore
  • Net profit down 22% to Rs 74.6 crore
  • Gross Loan Portfolio up 53.9% to Rs 11,724 crore
  • Borrowers up 56.4% to 40.1 lakh
  • Total Covid-19 additional provisioning buffer at Rs 245.6 crore
  • Gross NPA at 1.62% and Net NPA of 0
  • Collection efficiency of 74% in June and 76% in July
  • Moratorium book down to 26% in June from 100% in April
  • Provision Cover of 16.4% of Moratorium book in June
  • Cumulative disbursements of Rs 573 crore in June and July

Vinati Organics Q1FY21

  • Revenue down 22% to Rs 231.6 crore
  • Net profit down 12% to Rs 72.3 crore
  • Ebitda down 22.4% to Rs 97.1 crore
  • Ebitda margin at 41.9% from 42.3%
  • All numbers are compared on a year-on-year basis

July Auto Sales

Maruti Suzuki

  • Total sales down 1.1% to 1,08,064 units
  • Domestic sales up 1.3% to 1,01,307 units
  • Exports down 27% to 6,757 units
  • Mini+Compact segment sales flat to 68,787 units
  • Passenger car sales down 2% to 70,090 units
  • Domestic PV sales up 1.3% to 97,768 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

Hero MotoCorp

  • Overall sales up 14% to 5,14,509 units
  • Motorcycle sales at 4,78,666 units
  • Scooter sales at 35,843 units
  • Exports at 7,563 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

Mahindra & Mahindra

  • Overall sales up 33% to 25,678 units
  • PV sales up 37% to 11,025 units
  • Domestic sales up 31% to 24,211 units
  • Exports up 72% to 1,467 units
  • M&HCV sales up 37% to 70 units
  • Overall farm equipment sales down 30% to 25,402 units
  • Farm equipment exports up 34% to 939 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

Ashok Leyland

  • Overall sales almost double to 4,775 units
  • LCV sales up 87% to 3,070 units
  • M&HCV Truck sales more than double to 1,461 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

TVS Motor

  • Overall sales up 27% to 2,52,744 units
  • Two-wheeler sales up 28% to 2,43,788 units
  • Exports up 17% to 62,389 units
  • Three-wheeler sales up 23% to 8,956 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

Eicher Motors

  • Royal Enfield overall sales up 6% to 40,334 units
  • Exports up 55% to 2,409 units
  • Models with engine capacity up to 350 cc up 4% to 36,384 units

VST Tiller Tractors

  • Power Tiller sales up 14% to 3,040 units
  • Tractor sales up 6% to 850 units
  • Numbers in comparison to the previous month

Escorts

  • Overall sales down 51% to 5,322 units
  • Domestic sales down 53% to 4,953 units
  • Exports up 62% to 369 units
  • Faced supply chain challenges in the month of July
  • Could operate only at about 50% of capacity resulting in unfilfilled demand
  • Expect to go back to full capacity anytime up to mid-August 2020
  • Supply side situation may remain dynamic for another couple of months
  • Company and channel inventory remain at very low levels

Brokerage Radar

Kotak Securities On State Bank of India

  • Buy rating maintained
  • Price target of Rs 340
  • Strong quarterly performance overall
  • Expect further resolutions from the corporate NPL pool
  • See lower-than-expected impact on the bank due to Covid-19
  • Value the bank at 0.8 times book and 7 times June 2022E EPS
  • Preferred idea among PSU Banks
  • Strong liability franchise, healthy operating profits and leading market share in most of its subsidiaries
  • Valuations are attractive

Morgan Stanley On State Bank of India

  • Equalweight rating maintained
  • Price target raised to Rs 215 from Rs 205
  • Better than expected margins, strong deposit growth and lower moratorium aids good quarter
  • Macro climate is tough and will weigh on margins and asset quality in H2FY21
  • Need to see if this good performance can be sustained
  • Remain on the sidelines due to relatively low margin on safety despite cheap valuations

Kotak Securities On Tata Motors

  • Sell rating maintained
  • Price target of Rs 90
  • Substantial pick-up in volumes is essential for return to profitability
  • See limited visibility of the company returning to profitability anytime soon
  • Have a weak outlook on volumes
  • Standalone entity continues to remain under pressure
  • PV business likely to burn cash

Macquarie On Sun Pharma

  • Outperform rating maintained
  • Price target raised to Rs 578 from Rs 516
  • Quarter was a mixed bag with muted topline offset by cost savings
  • Expect 17% EPS CAGR over FY20-23E aided by domestic share gains and higher specialty sales
  • Opportunities to gain share in existing portfolio as well as benefit from new launches
  • Further delay in specialty ramp-up due to Covid-19 is a concern
  • Lower FY21E EPS by 3% but raise FY22/23E by 3% due to favourable forex
  • Taro's DoJ settlement largely lifts a major overhang
  • Domestic strength lends earnings visibility

Investec On UPL

  • Buy rating maintained
  • Price target raised to Rs 665 from Rs 530
  • Revenue miss offset by margin performance
  • Lower energy prices can impact consumption of agrochemicals in crops in Americas.
  • Well placed amidst disruptions due to diverse geographical spread, expanding product portfolio and synergy benefits
  • Raise FY21/22E estimates by 2-4% to factor in higher margins
  • Valuations offer a favourable risk-reward

Morgan Stanley On UPL

  • Equal-weight rating maintained
  • Price Target of Rs 426
  • Revenue and Ebitda guidance of 6-8% and 10-12% for FY21
  • Net debt/Ebitda target of 2 times by FY21-end
  • Cumulative revenue and cost synergy of $247 million and $120 million since Arysta acquisition
  • Assume Ebitda CAGR of 9% for FY20-23, cost of equity of 15.4%, and long-term PAT CAGR of 10%

Edelweiss On Tata Motors

  • Buy rating maintained
  • Price target raised to Rs 141 from Rs 127
  • Robust performance by JLR during the quarter
  • Continues to outperform on balance sheet as well as cost control initiatives
  • Wholesales will lag retail sales for JLR in the near-term as it aims to normalise dealer inventory
  • Q2FY21 may see a double-digit decline in volumes
  • Remain positive on JLR's upcoming product pipeline
  • Believe that the capex cycle for JLR has peaked

Morgan Stanley On Dr Lal Pathlabs

  • Underweight rating maintained
  • Price target of Rs 1,503
  • Limited pricing power, modest growth and rich valuations keep us underweight
  • High quality diagnostic franchise in India
  • Management expects core business to be around 90% of June to continue till September / October

Bulk Deals

  • Dynemic Products: Promoter Prahladbhai Patel sold 74,500 shares (0.66%) at Rs 205 per share
  • Rushil Décor: Aspire Emerging Fund sold 74,992 shares (0.50%) at Rs 101 per share

Pledged Share Details

  • Ajanta Pharma: Promoters created pledge of 4.75 lakh shares on July 30
  • Adani Enterprises: Promoter Adani Tradeline revoked pledge of 15.5 lakh shares on July 29
  • Hatsun Agro Products: Promoter RG Chandramorgan released pledge of 56.4 lakh shares on July 31
  • JSPL: Promoters revoked pledge of 35.84 lakh shares between July 24-27
  • Dish TV: Promoter Direct Media Distribution invoked pledge of 1.67 crore shares on July 27
  • Adani Ports & SEZ: Promoters revoked pledge of 20.55 lakh shares between July 29-31

As reported on July 31

Trading Tweaks

  • AGM Date: Titan, Bharti Infratel, CESC, Mahindra EPC Irrigation, Wockhardt, ICICI Securities, Lupin, JK Cement
  • Fund Raising: Bank of India
  • Price Band Revised From 10% To 5%: MPS, Weizmann
  • Move Out Of ASM Framework: Indiabulls Ventures
  • Move Into Short-Term ASM Framework: Capri Global Capital, Persistent Systems, Intellect Design Arena, Edelweiss Financial Services

Money Market Updates

  • The rupee ended little changed, capping a rangebound week of trade for the local currency.
  • The rupee ended at 74.81 against the U.S. Dollar as compared to Thursday's close of 74.85.
  • Through the week, the rupee has traded in a 25 paise range, with a weekly low of 74.66 and a high of 74.90.
  • On a weekly basis, the currency was the joint worst performer in Asia, on-par with the Hong Kong dollar.
All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On August 3

F&O Cues

  • Nifty August futures end at 11,104; premium of 31.5 points from discount of 18 points
  • Nifty August futures shed 1.4% and 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Nifty Bank August futures end at 21,695; premium of 55 points from discount of 28 points
  • Nifty Bank August futures add 3% and 44,000 shares in Open Interest

Nifty: August 6 Expiry

  • Maximum Open Interest on Call side at 11,500 strike (25.9 lakh shares)
  • Maximum Open Interest on Put side at 11,000 strike (18.6 lakh shares)
  • Active Options: 10,800 Put (+6.9 lakh shares) and 11,200 Call (+12.4 lakh shares)

Nifty: August 27 Expiry

  • Maximum Open Interest on Call side at 11,500 strike (20 lakh shares)
  • Maximum Open Interest on Put side at 11,000 strike (32.8 lakh shares)
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