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Negotiators have until the end of the week to agree North American trade pact, EU and the U.K. abandon October Brexit deal deadline, and Turkish meltdown leaves a mark. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
U.S. officials said that there’s no wiggle room on the Friday deadline to complete a new North America trade deal, despite Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland only joining the talks yesterday afternoon. If key issues remain for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, markets are nevertheless confident a compromise will be reached. For President Donald Trump, the deal may prove something of a damp squib, as analysts and industry experts doubt whether it will help bring jobs back to the U.S. or improve trade balances.
Getting an agreement on a Brexit deal by the end of October is no longer seen as realistic by EU and U.K. negotiators, with both sides now expecting talks to run well into November, according to people familiar with opposing positions. For British Prime Minister Theresa May, there are risks in drawing out talks as rumors fly around Westminster about a possible leadership challenge from Boris Johnson at October’s Conservative Party conference. May said she will fight any challenge and lead the party into the next general election.
Emerging-market funds owned by BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and others saw losses of more than 5 percent in the three weeks following the meltdown in Turkey’s financial market. Money-managers are warning that investors won’t return any time soon, after the country’s bonds slumped 31 percent in August. The lira dropped again today, losing as much as 2 percent against the dollar, despite efforts from the central bank to shore up investor sentiment by moving to tighten liquidity by ending unrestricted overnight funding to local banks.
Markets remain quiet. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.5 percent higher as hopes remained high of successful conclusion to North American trade talks. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time as Italian markets remained under pressure. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.871 percent and gold was higher.
The correlation between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices is at the lowest level since 2015, as U.S. production continues to be landlocked while facing pipeline constraints. A U.S. sale of 11 million barrels of oil from its emergency stockpile, set to hit markets in October and November, is not expected to do much to offset the effect of Iran sanctions which could remove as much as 1 million barrels a day from the global market by early November. A barrel of WTI for October delivery was trading at $68.75 at 5:45 a.m.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- The Treasury yield curve is finally going mainstream.
- California moves towards 100% clean power by 2045.
- Trump warns Google, Facebook and Twitter to “be careful.”
- The new financial stability star the Fed needs to navigate by.
- Italian bond traders aren’t going to sit and wait for the next storm.
- Aston Martin makes long-awaited move for IPO in London.
- Long-sought decay of Higgs boson observed.
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