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Nifty’s Two-Point Gain Keeps Record Closing Streak Alive

Everything you need to know about what’s moving markets today.

Pedestrians walk in front of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) building in Mumbai. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)
Pedestrians walk in front of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) building in Mumbai. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Closing Bell: Nifty Inches Higher To An All-Time Closing High

Indian equity benchmarks ended flat as gains in metal stocks were offset by losses in PSU banking shares.

The S&P BSE Sensex fell 26 points or 0.07 percent to 37,665.80 while the NSE Nifty 50 index inched marginally higher to an all-time closing high of 11,389.

Six out of 11 sector gauges compiled by the National Stock Exchange ended higher led by the Nifty Metal index's 1.2 percent gain. On the other hand, the Nifty PSU Bank index was top loser, down 2.14 percent.

The mid- and small-cap shares underperformed their larger peers as the Nifty Midcap 100 index fell 0.3 percent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index declined 0.85 percent.

Sheela Foam, KPR Mill Among Stocks Moving On Heavy Volumes

  • Techno Electric & Engineering: The Kolkata-based professional engineering service provider fell as much as 3.6 percent to Rs 274. Trading volume was 6.8 times its 20-day average.
  • Sheela Foam: The Ghaziabad-based mattress maker rose as much as 5.2 percent to Rs 1,535. Trading volume was 28.5 times its 20-day average.
  • KPR Mill: The Coimbatore-based apparel maker rose as much as 1.7 percent to Rs 655. Trading volume was 8.4 times its 20-day average.
  • Schaeffler India: The Mumbai-based fabricated metal products maker fell as much as 1.11 percent to Rs 5,216. Trading volume was 10 times its 20-day average.

TVS Motor Company Falls After June Quarter Profit Misses Estimates

Shares of the Chennai-based two wheeler maker swung between gains and losses after it reported June quarter earnings.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Net profit at Rs 147 crore versus estimate of Rs 172 crore
  • Revenue at Rs 4,150 crore versus estimate of Rs 4,220 crore

Adani Ports Extends Losses After Q1 Profit Miss

Shares of the Ahmedabad-based shipping port operator extended losses and fell as much as 7 percent, the most in three months, to Rs 369.20 after its profit missed Bloomberg consensus estimates in June quarter.

Nifty’s Two-Point Gain Keeps Record Closing Streak Alive

Intellect Design arena Rises On Winning Multimillion Dollar Contract

Shares of the Chennai-based financial technology company rose as much as 3.36 percent to Rs 210.50 after it won a large multimillion dollar deal with a leading bank in Asia, the company said in an exchange filing.

Stocks Push Higher On Earnings

Most major stocks gauges advanced on Tuesday as earnings season continued, helping buoy investor sentiment against a backdrop of trade angst and geopolitical noise. The dollar slipped against major peers and Treasuries edged higher.

Nifty’s Two-Point Gain Keeps Record Closing Streak Alive

Mahindra & Mahindra Rises On Beating Estimates In Q1

Shares of the Mumbai-based utility vehicle and farm equipment maker rose 0.6 percent after it beat Bloomberg consensus estimates in June quarter.

Key earnings highlights (Mahindra & Mahindra + MVML):

  • Revenue up 23 percent at Rs 13,358 crore versus 10,878 crore (YoY); estimate of Rs 13,542 crore
  • Net profit up 67 percent at Rs 1,257 crore versus Rs 752 crore (YoY); estimate of Rs 1,176 crore
  • Ebitda up 47 percent at Rs 2,110 crore versus Rs 1,434 crore (YoY); estimate of Rs 2,011 crore
  • Margin at 15.8 percent versus 13.2 percent (YoY)

Alembic Surges After Profit More Than Doubles In June Quarter

Shares of the Gujarat-based pharma company rose as much as 7 percent to Rs 48.35 after its profit more than doubled in June quarter.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Net profit up 106 percent at Rs 6.91 crore versus Rs 3.35 crore (YoY)
  • Revenue up 50 percent at Rs 44.52 crore versus Rs 29.61 crore (YoY)

PNB Reports Loss Of Rs 940 Crore; Stock Fluctuates

Shares of the Delhi-based PSU bank fluctuated between gains and losses after it reported June quarter earnings.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Net interest income up 22 percent at Rs 4,692 versus Rs 3,855 (YoY)
  • Net loss at Rs 940 crore versus profit of Rs 343 crore (YoY)
  • Net non-performing loans as a percentage of total advances at 10.58 percent versus 11.24 percent (QoQ)
  • Gross non-performing loans as a percentage of total advances at18.26 percent versus 18.38 percent (QoQ)
  • Provisions for non-performing loans at Rs 4,982 crore versus Rs 16,203 crore (QoQ)
  • Bank recovered Rs 336 crore from one NPA account under NCLT in June quarter
  • Provisioning coverage ratio at 61.8 percent

Motherson Sumi Falls After Profit Misses Estimates In June Quarter

Shares of the Noida-based auto parts maker fell as much as 3.56 percent to Rs 303 after its profit missed Bloomberg consensus estimates in June quarter.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Revenue up 13 percent at Rs 14,775 crore versus estimate of Rs 15,788 crore
  • Net profit up 59 percent at Rs 443 crore versus estimate of Rs 502 crore
  • Ebitda up 24 percent at Rs 1,412 crore versus Rs 1,135 crore (YoY)
  • Margin at 9.6 percent versus 8.7 percent (YoY)

PNB Swings Ahead Of Earnings

Shares of the Delhi-based government-owned lender swung between gains and losses ahead of June quarter earnings. Below are Bloomberg consensus estimates of June quarter earnings:

  • Net interest income (NII) seen 7.8 percent lower at Rs 3,555 crore versus Rs 3,855 crore
  • Net loss seen at Rs 2,335 crore versus profit of Rs 343 crore (Net loss estimates ranges from Rs 566 crore to Rs 5,985 crore)

Infosys Holds Gains After Block Deal

  • Infosys has 14 lakh shares change hands in a block. Stock up 0.47 percent at Rs 1,366.

Buyers and sellers were not immediately known

Source: Bloomberg

Market Update: Sensex, Nifty Erase Gains

  • Indian equity benchmarks erased gains as heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India came under selling pressure.
  • The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2 percent or 74 points to 37,616 and the NSE Nifty 50 index declined 0.2 percent or 23 points to 11,364.
  • Sixteen out of 19 sector gauges were trading lower led by the S&P BSE Energy index's 1 percent drop.
  • The mid- and small-cap shares were underperforming their larger peers as the S&P BSE MidCap and S&P BSE SmallCap indexes fell over 0.5 percent.
  • the overall breadth turned negative as 1,270 shares were declining while 1,070 were advancing on BSE.
Nifty’s Two-Point Gain Keeps Record Closing Streak Alive

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Dilip Buildcon Rises On Emerging As Lowest Bidder

Shares of the Bhopal-based road construction company rose as much as 2.3 percent to Rs 913.90 after it emerged as the lowest bidder for mine developer cum operator (MDO) of Pachhwara Central Coal Block of Punjab State Power Corporation.

The project is valued at Rs 32,158 crore, Dilip Buildcon said in an exchange notification.

PNB Has 16 Lakh Shares Change Hands Ahead Of Q1

  • Punjab National Bank has 16 lakh shares change hands in a block ahead of earnings. Stock down 1.6 percent at Rs 88.60.

Buyers and sellers were not immediately known

Source: Bloomberg

Eros International Surges After RIL Buys 5% Stake In Parent Company

Shares of the Mumbai-based movie distributor rose as much as 8 percent, the most since July 24, to Rs 134.45 after Reliance Industries acquired stake in its parent company Eros International Plc.

Reliance Industries completed acquisition of 5 percent stake in Eros International Plc. by acquiring 3,111,088 newly listed A ordinary shares from Eros at $15 per share for total consideration of $46.6 million, Business Wire reported.

State Bank Of India Declines After Block Deal

  • State Bank of India has 16 lakh shares change hands in a block. Stock down 0.47 percent at Rs 307.

Buyers and sellers were not immediately known

Source: Bloomberg

Dhanlaxmi Bank Slumps On Reporting Loss In June Quarter

Shares of the Thrissur-based private sector lender fell as much as 7.5 percent to Rs 15.95 after it reported loss and asset quality deterioration in June quarter.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Net interest income down 5 percent at Rs 81.1 crore versus Rs 85.4 crore
  • Net loss at Rs 45 crore versus net profit of Rs 8 crore
  • Provisions at Rs 65 crore versus Rs 80.1 crore (QoQ)
  • GNPA at 8.94 percent versus 7.35 percent (QoQ)
  • NNPA at 3.79 percent versus 3.19 percent (QoQ)

Kwality Advances After Block Deal

  • Kwality has 14.9 lakh shares change hands in a single block. Stock up 3.15 percent at Rs 16.35.

Buyers and sellers were not immediately known

Source: Bloomberg

Avanti Feed Slumps On Weak June Quarter Earnings

Shares of the Hyderabad-based shrimp feed maker fell as much as 11 percent, the most in over two months, to Rs 581 after its net profit declined over 40 percent in June quarter.

Key earnings highlights:

  • Revenue up 4.2 percent at Rs 1,040.2 crore versus Rs 998.2 crore
  • Net profit down 41.6 percent at Rs 85.7 crore versus Rs 146.7 crore
  • Ebitda down 41.3 percent at Rs 132 crore versus Rs 225 crore
  • Margin at 12.7 percent versus 22.5 percent

Adani Ports Falls On Q1 Profit Miss

Shares of the Ahmedabad-based shipping port operator fell as much as 3.47 percent, the most in over a month, to Rs 383.55 after its profit missed Bloomberg estimates in June quarter.

Adani Ports' net profit declined for a second quarter in a row due to foreign exchange losses.

Its net profit fell 9 percent to Rs 691 crore from Rs 761 crore a year ago. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg had estimated it to report net profit of Rs 795 crore.

Opening Bell: Sensex, Nifty Rise To Record Highs

Indian equity benchmarks rose to record highs led by Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun Pharma, Infosys and IndusInd Bank.

The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.49 percent or 185 points to 37,877 and the NSE Nifty 50 index climbed 0.37 percent or 42 points to 11,429.

Sixteen out of 19 sector gauges compiled by BSE were trading higher led by the S&P BSE Metal index's 0.9 percent gain. On the other hand, the S&P BSE telecom index was top loser, down 0.2 percent.

The mid- and small-cap shares advanced in line with larger peers as both the S&P BSE MidCap and S&P BSE SmallCap indexes rose 0.2 percent.

Nifty’s Two-Point Gain Keeps Record Closing Streak Alive

A Year Of Windfall That Wasn’t For Tata Sons

Rupee Edges Lower Against Dollar

  • Rupee edged lower to 68.93 per dollar against yesterday's close of 68.89.

Money Market heads Up: Bond Market Will Remain In A Range Ahead Inflation Data

The results of an auction of nearly $2 billion worth of bonds by Indian states will be keenly watched for investor appetite amid falling volumes in the sovereign-debt market.

Trading volumes dropped to a little over Rs 18,000 crore on Monday versus an average Rs 37,600 crore for the month.

The bond market will remain in a range ahead of the release of inflation data next week, according to Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed against the dollar.

In other news, The Economic Times reported that India will hold talks with the RBI on easing capital norms for banks. Such a move would free up an estimated Rs 60,000 crore at state-owned lenders, helping boost lending.

Brokerage Radar: How To Play Adani Ports, Britannia Industries Post Q1

Elara Capital on V-Mart Retail

  • Initiated ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 3,316.
  • Pioneer in value retailing in the organized space.
  • One of the best plays in India’s organized apparel retail sector.
  • Huge untapped opportunity up for grabs; Retail market to touch $1.3 trillion by March 2020.
  • Expect revenue, Ebitda and net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 25 percent, 32 percent and 31 percent over FY18-20.
  • Strong RoCE and free cashflow generation to continue.

Brokerages On Adani Ports

CLSA

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 490.
  • Low SEZ booking and forex losses hurt net profit.
  • Market-beating volume growth led by crude and containers.
  • New bulk ports – early signs of revival.

Macquarie

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 385 from Rs 388.
  • Adjusted for forex loss, core operating performance was in-line.
  • Cargo volume was helped by recovery in crude volumes and higher coal volumes.
  • Volume guidance for 2018-19 is achievable, but growth likely to taper off from April 2019.

Goldman Sachs

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 455 from Rs 466.
  • Revenue miss driven by lower than expected logistics income and volume at Dhamra port.
  • Non-availability of rakes hurt June quarter’s performance.
  • Expect the problem to be resolved by the next two quarters.

Brokerages On Britannia

UBS

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 7,700.
  • Margin improvement led improving gross margin and optimising other expenses.
  • Efforts to restructure international units with sub-par profitability to continue.
  • Key beneficiary of rural upswing, diversification on track.
  • Maintain buy on good revenue and earnings growth visibility compared to peers.

Goldman Sachs

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 7,235.
  • Ebitda came below estimates as better gross margin was offset by higher other expenses.
  • International markets remained flat.
  • Believe Britannia has re-invested gross margin benefit in ad-spend to support volume growth.
  • Bullish stance on ability to drive premiumisation by launching affordable packs of premium products.

Brokerages On Arvind

UBS

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 515.
  • June quarter’s revenue growth below expectation due to subdued textile performance.
  • Robust quarter for brand and engineering.
  • Management maintained strong growth guidance for 2018-19.
  • See marginal increase in competitive intensity for Arvind.

CLSA

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 550.
  • Juen quarter was a mixed quarter.
  • B&R business scaling up well; Textiles margins correct.
  • Lower DEPB rates, currency hedges impact textiles margins.
  • In final stages of demerger approvals; Expect approvals to come in by early Q2.

Brokerages on Ujjivan

Macquarie

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 490.
  • June quarter was a bit of a mixed bag.
  • Aggressive branch opening; but slower growth.
  • Expect credit costs to drop quite significantly in 2018-19.
  • Ujjivan is top pick in microfinance.

Spark Capital

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 399.
  • Lower MFI growth, higher opex leads to net profit miss.
  • Calculated net interest margins seems to have declined QoQ to 9.79 percent.
  • Gross NPAs came in at 2.7 percent versus 3.7 percent (QoQ).

Investec on Dixon Technologies

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 3,460.
  • June quarter was impacted by one-off debtor write-off, forex and commodity cost increase.
  • Lighting business delivered stellar margins.
  • Dixon added new large customers which significantly improves revenue visibility.
  • See several drivers that should contribute to strong earnings growth.

HSBC on SAIL

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 100 from Rs 110.
  • Ebitda missed estimates, largely driven by higher than expected costs.
  • Ebitda/tonne benefited from ramping up of expanded and upgraded plants.
  • Guidance for rising employee costs a concern.
  • Volume guidance of 17 metric tonnes looks realistic now.

Macquarie on Graphite India

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 1,410 from Rs 1,260.
  • June quarter’s operating income came above estimates led by higher realization.
  • Higher prices and utilisation should absorb cost increase in 2018-19.
  • Cost to gradually increase but little risk to margins.
  • Price strength to sustain; Volumes to grow with higher utilisation.

BQ Heads Up! Who's Meeting Whom And Insider Trades

Who's Meeting Whom

  • Balaji Telefilms to meet UBS on August 7
  • Vedanta to meet investors from August 7-8

Insider Trades

  • Srikalahasthi Pipes promoters acquired 35,000 shares from Aug. 2-3

(As reported on Aug. 6)

Bulk Deals And F&O Cues To Watch

Bulk Deals

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

  • First State Indian Subcontinent Fund bought 4.64 lakh shares or 0.9 percent equity at Rs 500 each.
  • Smaller Cap World Fund Inc. sold 26.17 lakh shares or 5.1 percent equity at Rs 501.75 each.

TCI Express

  • Manulife Global Fund India Equity Fund sold 2.26 lakh shares or 0.6 percent equity at Rs 697.03 each.

Nath Bio-Gene

  • Satpal Khattar bought 2 lakh shares or 1.1 percent equity at Rs 493.11 each.

F&O Cues

  • Nifty August futures ended at 11,414.2, with a premium of 27 points versus 34.9 points.
  • August series-Nifty open interest (OI) up 0.5 percent and Bank Nifty OI up 12 percent.
  • India VIX ended at 12.5, up 4 percent.
  • Max OI for August series call at 11,500 strike price call option, OI at 34.5 lakh shares, up 10 percent.
  • Max OI for August series put at 11,000 strike price put option, OI at 50 lakh shares, up 3 percent.

Earnings/Earnings Reaction To Watch: Adani Ports, Avanti Feeds, M&M, PNB And More!

Nifty Earnings Today

  • Mahindra & Mahindra

Other Earnings

  • Adani Enterprises
  • Adani Transmission
  • Au Small Finance Bank
  • Bombay Dyeing
  • Edelweiss Financial Services
  • Future Lifestyle Fashions
  • Future Supply Chain Solutions
  • Glaxosmithkline Consumer Healthcare
  • Inox Wind
  • Mcdowell Holdings
  • Motherson Sumi
  • Mphasis
  • Punjab National Bank
  • Sobha
  • Somany Ceramics
  • SRF
  • Thomas Cook
  • TVS Motor
  • Wonderla Holidays

Earnings Reaction To Watch

Nava Bharat Ventures (Q1 YoY)

  • Revenues up 106.2 percent at Rs 740.8 crore versus Rs 359.3 crore
  • Net profit up 5.6 times at Rs 85.4 crore versus Rs 15.3 crore
  • Ebitda up 6.2 times at Rs 275.6 crore versus Rs 44.7 crore
  • Margin at 37.2 percent versus 12.4 percent

Ujjivan Financial Services (Q1 YoY)

  • Net interest income grew 61 percent to Rs 222.4 crore versus Rs 138.2 crore
  • Net profit at Rs 45 crore versus loss of Rs 74.9 crore
  • Provisions at Rs 15.1 crore versus Rs 34.7 crore (QoQ)
  • GNPA at 2.7 percent versus 3.6 percent (QoQ)
  • NNPA at 0.3 percent versus 0.7 percent (QoQ)

Max Financial Services (Q1 YoY)

  • Revenues up 37 percent at Rs 129 crore versus Rs 94 crore
  • Net profit up 12 percent at Rs 75 crore versus Rs 67 crore

Praj Industries (Q1 YoY)

  • Revenues up 3.1 percent at Rs 191.6 crore versus Rs 185.9 crore
  • Net profit at Rs 3.5 crore versus Rs 40 lakhs
  • Ebitda up 4.7 times at Rs 4.2 crore versus Rs 0.9 crore
  • Margin at 2.2 percent versus 0.5 percent

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (Q1 YoY)

  • Revenues down 12.2 percent at Rs 2,411 crore versus Rs 2,745.1 crore
  • Net profit down 9.2 percent at Rs 690.7 crore versus Rs 760.7 crore
  • Ebitda up 1.4 percent at Rs 1,588.32 crore versus Rs 1,566.64 crore
  • Margin at 65.9 percent versus 57.1 percent

Adani Power (Q1 YoY)

  • Revenues down 30.9 percent at Rs 3,829.7 crore versus Rs 5,543.4 crore
  • Net loss at Rs 825.2 crore versus loss of Rs 452.8 crore
  • Ebitda down 25.8 percent at Rs 1,158.8 crore versus Rs 1,561.3 crore
  • Margin at 30.3 percent versus 28.2 percent

Syndicate Bank (Q1 YoY)

  • Net interest income down 5.9 percent at Rs 1,505.9 crore versus Rs 1,600.5 crore
  • Net loss at Rs 1,281.8 crore versus loss of Rs 263.2 crore
  • Provisions at Rs 1,774.1crore versus Rs 35,44.7crore (QoQ)
  • GNPA at 12.59 percent versus 11.53 percent (QoQ)
  • NNPA at 6.64 percent versus 6.28 percent (QoQ)

Dalmia Bharat Sugar Q1 YoY

  • Revenues up 2.6 percent at Rs 653.3 crore versus Rs 636.6 crore
  • Net profit up 12.5 percent at Rs 62 crore versus Rs 55.1 crore
  • Ebitda down 13.9 percent at Rs 83.9 crore versus Rs 97.4 crore
  • Margin at 12.8 percent versus 15.3 percent

Avanti Feeds Q1 YoY

  • Revenues up 4.2 percent at Rs 1,040.2 crore versus Rs 998.2 crore
  • Net profit down 41.6 percent at Rs 85.7 crore versus Rs 146.7 crore
  • Ebitda down 41.3 percent at Rs 132 crore versus Rs 225 crore
  • Margin at 12.7 percent versus 22.5 percent

Dhanlaxmi Bank (Q1 YoY)

  • Net interest income down 5 percent at Rs 81.1 crore versus Rs 85.4 crore
  • Net loss at Rs 45 crore versus net profit of Rs 8 crore
  • Provisions at Rs 65 crore versus Rs 80.1 crore (QoQ)
  • GNPA at 8.94 percent versus 7.35 percent (QoQ)
  • NNPA at 3.79 percent versus 3.19 percent (QoQ)

Stocks To Watch: Sun Pharma, ONGC, Reliance Industries And More!

  • Sun Pharma launches Kapspargo Sprinkle in U.S.
  • ONGC board approves its entire stake sale of 49 percent in Pawan Hans (PTI)
  • Unichem Labs receives four observations for its API manufacturing facility in Maharashtra.
  • Three Indian ports may acquire majority stake in Dredging Corporation of India.
  • Kridhan Infra receives civil work order worth Rs 132.6 crore in UP.
  • IZMO wins multi-crore contract from leading European Automotive OEM.
  • Sagar Cements sales for July up 13.4 percent at 219,748 million tonnes versus vs 193,76 million tonnes (YoY)
  • Kwality says its results will be delayed due to technical problems.
  • Rolta India says due to unforeseen circumstances the group will be unable to perform its obligations under restructuring pact.
  • Reliance Industries completes purchase of 5 percent stake in Eros International.

Talking Points: Iran Sanctions, Indra Nooyi, Justice KM Joseph’s Seniority And More!

SGX Nifty Indicates A Tepid Start

Good Morning!

Asian stocks climbed though risk appetite remained subdued despite a positive U.S. session on earnings. The yen strengthened as the dollar steadied.

Equity benchmarks ticked higher in Japan and were little changed in Australia and South Korea, while Hong Kong futures pointed to gains. The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index's performance in India was little changed at 11,433 as of 7:58 am.

Currencies

  • The Japanese yen rose 0.1 percent to 111.31 per dollar after declining 0.2 percent.
  • The offshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.8633 per dollar.
  • The euro was at $1.1561 after reaching the weakest in almost 13 months on its fifth straight decline.
  • The British pound traded at $1.2943, near the weakest in about 11 months.
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed around the highest in more than two weeks.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $68.86 a barrel.
  • Gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,208.80 an ounce.

Here are some key events coming up this week:

  • Earnings season includes results from: Japan Post Bank, Disney, 21st Century Fox, Deutsche Telekom, China Mobile, Glencore and Adidas.
  • Tuesday brings the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting that is forecast to produce no change in either the record-low cash rate or the long-term guidance.
  • The Bank of Japan releases a summary of opinions Wednesday from its July 30-31 meeting, at which it tweaked elements of its stimulus policy to make it more sustainable.
  • Samsung Electronics unveils its next Galaxy Note smartphone.
  • U.S. consumer prices probably rose in July, consistent with a pickup in inflation that’s projected to keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest-rate increases, economists forecast before Friday’s release.