The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) logo is displayed in front of a bronze bull statue at the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

India Better Placed Than Peers Amid Trade War, Says JPMorgan’s Bharat Iyer

India is better placed than most of its peers if the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China dominates investor sentiment over the next six-seven months, according to Bharat Iyer, head of India equity research at JPMorgan. India is a very small part of the global supply value chain, he said, making the case for global money coming into the country.

JPMorgan estimates an earnings growth of 15 percent for Indian companies over the next two years from 7-8 percent growth seen in the financial year 2017-18. The improvement could be attributed largely to a low base in the previous quarters as Indian companies struggled in the aftermath of demonetisation and disruptions due to the Goods and Services Tax.

But with the general elections less than a year away, could we see a temporary slowdown? Iyer discusses this and more in an interview with BloombergQuint.

Key Highlights:

  • Expects lower returns and higher volatility in markets in the ongoing financial year.
  • Markets are now chasing earnings growth. Advocating neutral stance towards Indian markets.
  • India is facing cyclical headwinds, dependence on external energy and capital; investors to monitor trade war for the next six months; see India performing well.
  • Expects two more rate hikes in India and three-four in the U.S.
  • Expects earnings growth at 15 percent for the next two years; expects 20 percent earnings growth in the first quarter due to low base effect.
  • Stronger urban consumption and retail banking sector to aid earnings growth.
  • Expects eight to 10 percent growth in the IT sector.
  • Reclassification of mutual fund schemes triggered a sell-off in mid caps.

Watch the full interview here: