Electronic board indicating stock figures are reflected in a glass facade at the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Oil, Rupee To Drive Market This Week, Say Experts

With quarterly earnings largely over, market sentiment this week will be guided by rupee movement, trend in global crude oil prices and macroeconomic data, according to experts.

“With fourth quarter results below estimates, 2018-19 estimates are likely to be downgraded. Decelerating macro trends like increase in bond yield, rising inflation, rupee depreciation and a gap in current account deficit might impact market performance over the medium term,” said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services.

Volatility may be seen with derivatives expiry on Thursday. Data for gross domestic product growth rate will also steer market movements, experts said.

“The Nifty has been plagued by a rising crude and an appreciating dollar for some time,” said VK Sharma, head private client group and market strategy at HDFC Securities.

Over the past couple of weeks, the rupee has been depreciating sharply against the U.S. dollar. The domestic unit on Friday clocked its biggest single-session rally, surging 56 paise to close at 67.78 against the greenback.

Auto stocks will also be in focus as investors await monthly sales data, to be announced on Friday. PMI data for the manufacturing sector will influence trading sentiment.

Last week, the Sensex scored a moderate gain of 76.57 points, or 0.22 percent, to end at 34,924.87.

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