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Nifty Stocks That Surprised And Disappointed The Most This Financial Year

From the biggest surprise in 3 years, FY18 turned out to be disappointing compared to the previous fiscal for Nifty.



A broker reacts while looking at financial data on computer screens the trading floor during a charity day at BGC Brokers L.P., a unit of BGC Partners Inc., in London, U.K. (Photographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg)
A broker reacts while looking at financial data on computer screens the trading floor during a charity day at BGC Brokers L.P., a unit of BGC Partners Inc., in London, U.K. (Photographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg)

From the biggest surprise in three years, 2017-18 turned out to be disappointing compared to last fiscal year for Nifty 50 companies.

Thirty-five companies out of the 50-stock index returned gains beating analyst estimates till Jan. 29 when India’s benchmark closed at a record, according to Bloomberg. A global sell-off and the finance minister’s decision to bring back a tax on long-term equity gains spooked investors. The number of stocks surpassing forecasts fell to 27 at the end of the financial year’s last trading day.

That was lower than the financial year-ended 2017, where 34 shares surpassed price target.

Nifty rose more than 21 percent from April till Jan. 21 as demonetisation helped funnel household savings into mutual funds and insurance, which they ploughed in stocks. The index then lost part of the gains to close the financial year 10 percent higher.

Domestic investors pumped in a little more than Rs 1 lakh crore, nearly five times more than their overseas counterparts.

Nifty Stocks That Surprised And Disappointed The Most This Financial Year

Here are the stocks that surpassed analyst estimates the most or underperformed forecasts.

Outperformers

Bajaj Finance Ltd. beat the Bloomberg consensus forecast by the highest margin, aided by its strong asset under management in focus. The non-bank lender, added to the index in September, rose 60 percent more than consensus target price.

India’s largest FMCG company Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUL), billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd. and the country’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. were the other stocks that surprised analysts by outperforming forecasts.

Nifty Stocks That Surprised And Disappointed The Most This Financial Year

Interestingly, HUL and IndusInd Bank Ltd. beat analysts forecasts over the last four years, Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. and Eicher Motors Ltd. surpassed the 12-month Bloomberg target for the previous four years and three years, respectively.

Bengaluru-based software services provider Infosys Ltd. the surpassed price target marginally by 1 percent, surprised the street four times in the last five years.

Underperformers

Drugmakers led the companies that failed to live up to the street expectations as rising concerns of regulatory action in the U.S., among their largest markets, hurt pricing and margins. Lupin Ltd. was the biggest negative surprise, with the stock missing the target by 55 percent.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Aurobindo Pharma Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. were among the top underperformers.

Nifty Stocks That Surprised And Disappointed The Most This Financial Year