S&P Sees Obrador Steady on Mexico Fiscal Stance, Less So on Oil

(Bloomberg) -- S&P Global Ratings says Mexican presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador could alter the pace at which a new energy opening is carried out but won’t substantially change the nation’s fiscal or monetary stance if he wins the July election.

The ratings company said Lopez Obrador has generated uncertainty about private investment in the oil sector because of his criticism of the 2013 energy reform, but it didn’t expect the candidate would be able to undo the law, as it would take a two-thirds majority in congress that’s "unlikely," according to an S&P statement.

"We don’t expect a substantial change on fiscal or monetary policy," the statement says. But unlike the other presidential candidates, Lopez Obrador "presents less certainty."

Ricardo Anaya, the standard bearer of the opposition PAN party-led coalition who’s running second to Lopez Obrador in polls, and Jose Antonio Meade, the candidate for the ruling PRI party, can be expected to largely keep current economic policies, S&P says. The comments came in a report in which S&P affirmed its stable outlook for Mexico’s BBB+ credit rating, reflecting an expectation of continuity in economic and fiscal policies in the coming two years.

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