A pedestrian walks past men looking at an electronic monitor displaying shares prices outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan. (Photographer: Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg)

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 28

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A selloff in stocks triggered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showed signs of abating in Asia as investors assessed the trajectory of U.S. interest rate increases. Treasury yields and the dollar maintained gains.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, fell 0.6 percent to 10,499 as of 7:10 a.m.

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DayBreak

Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities on Wednesday.

Global Cues

  • U.S. stocks sold off for the first time in three sessions and Treasuries slumped as investors weighed the potential for added interest rate hikes this year following Powell’s assessment that the economy is strengthening and inflation could be gaining speed.
  • The S&P 500 Index is set to round out its biggest monthly slide since January 2016.
  • Investors marked up the probability of a Fed rate hike in the fourth quarter to about 50 percent following Powell’s remarks. Odds of increases in the second and third quarters ticked up to about 80 percent and 70 percent, respectively, while the chances of a boost when the Fed next meets in March remained near 100 percent.

Europe Check

  • European stocks ended a two-day streak of gains as losses in real estate companies offset gains in media firms.

Asia Check

  • Japan’s Topix index fell less than 0.1 percent in Tokyo and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.2 percent.
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed.
  • Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1 percent.
  • S&P 500 futures contracts were up 0.2 percent.

Here are some key events scheduled for this week:

  • In China, the official and Caixin purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday and Thursday respectively may show growth momentum slowed slightly in February, though the signal may be clouded by the holidays.
  • The European Union will publish a draft Brexit treaty on Wednesday and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech Friday on Britain’s relationship with the European Union.
  • Japan capital spending is out on Thursday.

India

  • 10:30am: Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI for Feb.; prior 52.4
  • 4:30pm: Fiscal Deficit in rupees for April-Jan. period
  • 5pm: Eight infrastructure industries index for Jan. (Prior
  • +4.0 percent)
  • 5:30pm: India GDP annual FY18 estimates through March 31 YoY;
  • estimate 6.5 percent (Prior 7.1 percent)
  • 5:30pm: India GDP YoY for three months ended Dec. 31, estimate 7.0 percent, prior 6.3 percent
  • 5:30pm: India GVA YoY for three months ended Dec. 31, estimate 6.7 percent, prior 6.1 percent

Commodity Cues

  • West Texas Intermediate crude extended a 1.7 percent slump, falling 0.3 percent to $62.80 a barrel.
  • Brent snaps four-day winning streak trades lower at $66.63 per barrel; down 1.3 percent.
  • Gold was steady at $1,318.72 an ounce after falling 1.2 percent.
  • Sugar ended lower for third day at 12.9 cents per pound, the lowest since September 2015; down 4.2 percent, the most since August 2017.

Indian ADRs

Stocks To Watch

  • HDFC QIP floor price set at Rs 1,824.63 apiece. Panel will consider QIP issue price on March 5.
  • Cipla partnered with Roche Pharma India to create greater access to key medicines.
  • DLF’s subsidiary emerged as the highest bidder for 11.76-acre Gurugram land at Rs 1,500 crore.
  • ICICI Bank said that it has no exposure to the Nirav Modi Group.
  • Religare Enterprises said that it sees no direct impact from proceedings in the Delhi High Court.
  • Kridhan Infra acquired 31.5 percent stake in Vijay Nirman.
  • Moody’s changed its outlook on IDBI Bank to positive from stable.
  • Sadbhav Infrastructure Projects declared lowest bidder for Rs 1,047 crore NHAI order.
  • Larsen & Toubro to sell up to 34.38 lakh shares, or 2 percent stake in L&T Infotech to achieve the minimum public shareholding.
  • Bharat Forge completed stake sale in power equipment joint venture with GE.
  • Sona Koyo got approval to change name to JTEKT India.
  • Dalmia Bharat: Bain-backed consortium is said to win bid to buy Binani Cement, reported Bloomberg.

Bulk Deals

  • Narayana Hrudayalaya: First State Investments bought 11.14 lakh shares, or 0.5 percent equity, at Rs 300 each.
  • Punjab Alkalies and Chemicals: IDBI Bank sold 1.50 lakh shares, or 0.6 percent equity, at Rs 23.98 each.
  • Supreme Infra: Discord Exim sold 1.42 lakh shares, or 0.6 percent equity, at Rs 69.3 each.

Harrisons Malayalam

  • Promoter Instant Holdings sold 14.20 lakh shares, or 7.7 percent equity, at Rs 84.2 each.
  • Vayu Udaan Aircraft bought 14.20 lakh shares, or 7.7 percent equity, at Rs 84.2 each.

IPO

Who’s Meeting Whom

  • Jyothy Laboratories to meet Mondrian Investments Partners on Feb. 28.
  • Maithan Alloys to meet investors and analysts in Mumbai on Feb. 28.

Insider Trades

  • Apollo Tyres promoter Neeraj Consultants Pvt. Ltd. acquired 4.90 lakh shares from Feb. 23 to Feb. 26.
  • Capital Trust promoter and director Yogen Khosla acquired 10,000 shares on Feb. 23.
  • Nandan Denim promoter Vedprakash Devkinandan Chiripal acquired 59,349 shares on Feb. 23.
  • Alembic Pharma promoter Alembic acquired 16,809 shares from Feb. 23 to Feb. 26.
  • Digjam promoter iPro Capital sold 1 lakh shares from Feb. 20 to Feb. 26.

Rupee

  • Rupee ended at 64.89/U.S. dollar versus 64.80/U.S. dollar on Monday.

Index Trends

Top Gainers And Losers

F&O Cues

  • Nifty March futures closed trading at 10,564, a premium of 10 points versus 18.4 points on Monday.
  • All series-Nifty Open Interest up 4 percent, Bank Nifty OI down 5 percent.
  • India VIX ended at 13.9, up 1.6 percent.
  • Maximum OI for March series at 10,700 call strike, OI at 32.5 lakh, up 22 percent.
  • Maximum OI for March series at 10,400 Put, OI at 35.6 lakh, up 12 percent.

F&O Ban

  • In Ban: Fortis Healthcare, JP Associates, Oriental Bank of Commerce
  • New In Ban: None
  • Out Of Ban: None

Alert: Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in F&O ban. There is a penalty in case of rollover of these intraday positions.

Put-Call Ratio

  • Nifty PCR at 1.42 versus 1.46
  • Nifty Bank PCR at 1 versus 1.42

Fund Flows

Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change

Brokerage Radar

HSBC on Motherson Sumi

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; Cut price target to Rs 400 from Rs 425.
  • Stock correction triggered by weak December quarter is overdone.
  • Expect businesses to return to strong growth trajectory.
  • Remain convinced on long-term potential.
  • TP cut to factor in delays in plant commissioning.
  • Motherson well placed to benefit from increasing role of auto component suppliers.
  • Motherson prepared to make multiple acquisitions which should help achieve its 2020 goals.

Kotak on Infosys

  • Maintained ‘Add’ with price target of Rs 1,250.
  • Infosys expects strong macro to translate into better fiscal 2019.
  • Ramp-up of deal wins will propel growth in banking vertical.
  • Challenges remain in retail and telecom; other verticals strong.
  • Infosys has strong capabilites in digital.
  • Does not expect any meaningful changes to strategy or organisation structure.

Macquarie on Strides Shasun

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 996.
  • Strong foothold in Australia – a key differentiator for Strides.
  • Strides has a robust and vertically integrated business in Australia.
  • With growth, margin levers and strategy in place, execution remains key.
  • Sustained revenue uptick in Australia and US will be key margin driver.
  • Expect Strides to generate 100 percent return over three years.

Credit Suisse on Nestle India

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 9,000.
  • Nestle dividing India into 15 clusters for focused targeting.
  • New ‘cluster approach’ a welcome change.
  • In food category, cluster approach is needed even more.
  • Focus on new launches to continue.
  • Nestle is in a turnaround phase.

Macquarie on Indian Real Estate

  • Office market – strength in Bangalore market remains highest.
  • Residential – recovery in selective places, launches picking up ex-NCR.
  • CLSS scheme attracting some developers.
  • Implementation of RERA and GST will help in market share gains.
  • Preferred picks are Prestige Estates and Phoenix Mills.

ICICI Direct on Music Broadcast

  • Initiated ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 450.
  • Radio industry to thrive on expanding presence.
  • Wide reach, balanced approach to aid growth.
  • Growth driven by prudent investments as major capex is behind.
  • Margins to expand since cost increase would be inflationary.
  • Healthy topline, margins expansion to drive earnings growth.
  • Expect revenue and operating income to compound at 14 percent and 17 percent respectively over the fiscal 2017-2020.
  • Strong cash flow generation over next three years.
  • Return ratios to improve; Expect company to start paying dividend.
  • Expect strong return on capital employed and return on equity of 21.5 percent and 13.8 percent by March 2020.

Motilal Oswal on UPL

  • Initiated ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 945; implying a potential upside of 31 percent from the last regular trade.
  • UPL in sweet spot to grab impending opportunity in generics market.
  • Products worth $3 billion going off-patent – Opportunity for UPL.
  • Generic pesticides, backward integration to drive profitability.
  • New launches and branded products to drive growth.
  • Strong dealers & distribution network enables superior reach.
  • Robust growth across geographies to continue.
  • Ebitda margin to expand on better product mix and operating efficiency.
  • Expect revenue and net profit to compound at 12 percent and 14 percent respectively over the fiscal 2018-2020.
  • Strong free cash flow generation to improve balance sheet.
  • Return ratios to remain healthy.
  • Re-rating to continue on back of multiple drivers.
  • Bull case price target of Rs 1,213, implying a potential upside of 68 percent form the last regular trade.
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