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All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Asian stocks traded mixed following a decline in their American counterparts. 

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S. (Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg)
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S. (Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg)

Asian stocks traded mixed following a decline in their American counterparts while shorter-dated U.S. Treasuries extended losses amid a massive debt issuance.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, rose 0.5 percent to 10,383 as of 6:59 a.m.

Short on time? Well, then listen to this podcast for a quick summary of the article!

DayBreak

Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities on Wednesday.

Global Cues

  • U.S. stocks halted a six-day rally as disappointing results from Walmart Inc. weighed on major indexes as the dollar pushed higher.
  • Treasuries fell amid a heavy slate of U.S. debt issuance, with short-end auctions drawing some of the highest yields in almost a decade. The 10-year rate was up to 2.89 percent.
  • While speculators are turning bearish, money managers are looking at the highest U.S. yields in years as a buying opportunity in a world where shorter-term Japanese and German notes still carry negative yields.

Europe Check

  • European stocks rose for the fourth time in five days, resuming gains as the U.S. market reopened after a three-day weekend with equities looking to add to last week’s rally.
All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Asian Cues

  • Japan’s Topix index was flat as of 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Australia’s S&P/200 Index dropped less than 0.1 percent.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index declined 0.5 percent, the biggest drop in more than a week.

Here are some of the key events scheduled for this week:

  • The Federal Reserve will release minutes on Wednesday of its Jan. 30-31 meeting, Janet Yellen’s last as chair, where officials kept the rate unchanged.
  • Fed policy makers speaking this week include New York Fed President William Dudley and Atlanta Fed President Raphael
  • Bostic. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is among speakers at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York City.
  • Companies announcing earnings this week include Glencore, Woolworths, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland.
  • Chinese markets reopen on Thursday after holidays.
  • India’s Monetary Policy Committee minutes after 5 pm.

Commodity Cues

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $61.65 a barrel.
  • Gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,330.47 an ounce after dropping 1.3 percent.

Indian ADRs

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Earnings Reactions To Watch

Mahindra CIE Q4 (YoY)

  • Revenues up 40 percent to Rs 561.5 crore.
  • Net profit up 33 percent to Rs 14.6 crore.
  • Ebitda up 72 percent to Rs 58.5 crore.
  • Margin at 10.4 percent versus 8.5 percent.

Huhtamaki PPL Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenues up 7 percent to Rs 562 crore.
  • Net profit up 75 percent to Rs 21 crore.
  • Ebitda up 11 percent to Rs 60 crore.
  • Margin at 10.7 percent versus 10.3 percent.

Stocks To Watch

  • Reliance Industries to acquire 5 percent stake in Eros International Plc for $48.75 million, announces Joint Partnership to set-up an Rs 1,000 crore corpus to co-produce and consolidate content.
  • Union Bank said that it classified Rotomac Global account as a non-performing asset in October 2016.
  • Bank of Baroda discloses Rs 456.6 crore exposure to Rotomac Global.
  • Weizmann Forex postponed the demerger of wind power operations in Karma Energy for fundraising.
  • Edelweiss units invoke 3.9 percent stake in Fortis Healthcare; reduces shareholding to 4.17 percent.
  • Dilip Buildcon bags order worth Rs 380 crore from NHAI in Karnataka.
  • The NSE to exclude futures and options contracts of HDIL from April 27.
  • Central Bank of India to consider raising up to Rs 4,835 crore via preferential issue on Feb. 23.
  • Nitin Spinners approves preferential issue of 3.32 lakh equity shares at Rs 120.5 apiece to promoters.
  • Mawana Sugar to acquire the entire stake of Usha International in Mawana Foods Pvt. Ltd. for Rs 24.83 crore.
  • Max India said that its joint venture partner is exploring stake in Max Healthcare.
  • High Court asked cops to probe into allegations against Gitanjali Gems promoter Mehul Choksi.

Bulk Deals

Fortis Healthcare

  • Societe Generale bought 76.64 lakh shares or 1.5 percent equity at Rs 142.95 each, on an average.
  • ECL Finance sold 1.49 crore shares, or 2.9 percent equity at Rs 141.38 each, on an average.

Century Enka

  • Cygnet Industries bought 4.15 lakh shares, or 1.9 percent equity at Rs 349.5 each.
  • Camden Industries sold 4.15 lakh shares, or 1.9 percent equity at Rs 349.5 each.

Kesar Petroproducts

  • Aspire Emerging Fund sold 7 lakh shares, or 0.7 percent equity at Rs 44.04 each.

Mangalam Cement

  • Cygnet Industries bought 8 lakh shares, or 3 percent equity at Rs 336.5 each.
  • Camden Industries sold 8 lakh shares, or 3 percent equity at Rs 336.5 each.

Mangalam Timber Products

  • Cygnet Industries bought 6.53 lakh shares, or 3.6 percent equity at Rs 31.5 each.
  • Camden Industries sold 6.53 lakh shares, or 3.6 percent equity at Rs 31.5 each.

Who’s Meeting Whom

  • NBCC to meet Wellington Management Group on Feb. 21.
  • PI Industries to meet HDFC Mutual Fund on Feb. 22.
  • Greenlam Industries to meet several fund houses including Edelweiss, JM Finance and Antique on Feb. 22.

Insider Trades

  • Apollo Tyres promoter Neeraj Consultants Pvt. acquired 1.05 lakh shares on Jan. 19.
  • Lumax Industries promoter Dhanesh Kumar Jain (HUF) acquired 8,500 shares on Jan. 14.
  • Lasa Supergenerics promoter Svaks Biotech India Pvt. sold 8,429 shares between Feb. 15-16.
  • KCP Sugar & Industries’ promoters acquired 50,000 shares between Feb. 15-16.

Rupee

  • Rupee ended at Rs 64.79 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday versus Rs 64.21 per U.S. dollar on Friday.

Index Trends

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Top Gainers And Losers

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

F&O Cues

  • Nifty February futures closed at 10,343.7, discount of 16 points.
  • Nifty March Futures at 10,371, premium of 11 points versus 37 points on Monday.
  • All series-Nifty open interest up 22 percent, Bank Nifty open interest up 11 percent.
  • Rollover: Nifty Rollover at 30 percent, Bank Nifty at 21 percent.
  • India VIX ended at 16.8, up 1.2 percent.
  • Maximum open interest for February series at 11,100 call strike; open interest at 48.4 lakh, open interest down 1 percent.
  • Maximum open interest for February series at 10,300 Put, open interest at 54.8 lakh, up 20 percent.
  • March series maximum open interest at 10,000 Put and 11,000 Call.

F&O Ban

  • In Ban: Balrampur Chini, Dish TV, Fortis Healthcare, GMR Infra, IFCI, Jain Irrigation, JP Associates
  • New in ban: IFCI
  • Out of ban: HDIL, Oriental Bank

Alert: Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in F&O ban. There is a penalty in case of a rollover of these intraday positions.

Put-Call Ratio

  • Nifty PCR at 1.10 versus 1.06.
  • Nifty Bank PCR at 0.79 versus 0.89.

Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Fund Flows

All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 21

Brokerage Radar

Macquarie on Indian IT services

  • Next fiscal guidance hints at marginal improvement.
  • Strong GDP growth momentum in developed markets to aid growth.
  • Expect most large companies in India to grow at industry level in the next financial year.
  • Headcount growth to remain lower than revenue growth rate.
  • Expect fiscal revenue growth to be marginally better than current fiscal.
  • Large cap pecking order: HCL Tech > Infosys > TCS > Wipro and Tech Mahindra.
  • In Mid-cap space: prefer L&T Infotech and Hexaware.

Deutsche Bank on Ambuja Cement

  • Maintained ‘Hold’; raised price target to Rs 275 from Rs 252.
  • December quarter results surprise positively.
  • Ebitda significantly above estimates due to better volumes and margins.
  • Realisations improved marginally, but barely adequate to compensate cost inflation.
  • Expect earnings per share to grow at a compounded rate of 17 percent by 2019.

Macquarie on Ambuja Cement

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’ with price target of Rs 300.
  • December quarter’s operating income was significantly higher than estimates due to an inventory gain.
  • Strong volume push in previous quarter.
  • Capacity to constrain volume growth.
  • Ambuja-ACC merger final step still awaited.

Deutsche Bank on Titan

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 970.
  • Expect growth of exchange gold usage to sustain through the financial years till March 2020.
  • Use can increase as flat gold prices since 2013 means gold is not an appreciating asset.
  • Exchange gold possess a risk to near to medium term revenue growth.

Macquarie on Titan

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 907.
  • Believe recent bank fraud case has implications on Titan’s market share.
  • Big opportunity for Titan to accelerate the pace of market share gains.
  • Demand from trusted players like Tanishq to further accelerate.
  • Big opportunity for Tanishq for store expansion in medium term.
  • Compulsory Hallmarking- another step towards formalization of jewellery.

Morgan Stanley on Coal India

  • Maintained ‘Underweight’ with price target of Rs 221.
  • Execution and timelines for private coal mining are key.
  • Could take few years for mining to start.
  • Positive for India's coal production; Pose downside risk to coal imports.
  • For Coal India, key will be aggression in auction bids.

Morgan Stanley on Maruti Suzuki

  • Maintained ‘Overweight’ with price target of Rs 10,563.
  • Expect Japanese Yen to rise sharply against U.S. dollar.
  • Impact on next fiscal’s earnings per share will be moderate, but the earnings per share is expected to take a hit by 4-8 percent in the financial year-ending March 2020.
  • With Maruti’s focus on reducing FX exposure, risk is manageable.

Credit Suisse on Tata Steel

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 860.
  • Bhushan bid implies EV at six times adj. Ebitda.
  • Valuation not cheap, but with steel cycle picking up; Deal can be EPS accretive.
  • Disagree with market concerns about bid being too aggressive.
  • Minor working capital plus capex would be needed for the asset.

Macquarie on Tata Steel

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 800.
  • Bid appears 10–15 percent higher than expectations.
  • See Bhushan assets as an attractive strategic fit for Tata.
  • Quality assets with high integration.
  • Assets offer growth optionality and attractive strategic fit.
  • Valuations need to evaluate factors beyond headline capacity.
  • Stock correction on headline bid provides a buying opportunity.

Credit Suisse on Hexaware

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’; raised price target to Rs 330 from Rs 265.
  • Strategy looks well thought-out and realistic.
  • Business can sustain low to mid-teen growth.
  • Not much scope for margin expansion.
  • Expect dividend payout to increase.
  • Rich valuations and stake sale by Baring an overhang.