All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 12
Investors are bracing for another bumpy ride after the return of volatility delivered the biggest weekly rout in Asian stocks since 2011.
The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, rose 0.3 percent to 10,495 as of 7:00 a.m.
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Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities on Monday.
- U.S. equities ended their worst week in two years on a positive note, but rate-hike fears that pushed markets into a correction remain as investors await American inflation figures on Feb. 14.
- The Cboe Volatility Index ended at 29, almost three times higher than its level Jan. 26.
- The VIX’s bond-market cousin reached its highest since April during the week, and a measure of currency volatility spiked to levels last seen almost a year ago.
- Pressure on equities came from the Treasury market, where yields spiked to a four-year high, raising concern the Federal Reserve would accelerate its rate-hike schedule.
- Yields ended the week at 2.85 percent, near where they started, as Treasuries moved higher when equity selling reached its most frantic levels.
- European stocks plunged the most since January 2016 this week as global turmoil persisted amid rate angst.
- The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.4 percent in Sydney.
- Contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1 percent.
- Futures on the S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent.
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 6.5 percent last week after falling 1.7 percent Friday.
- West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $59.18 a barrel. It slumped 9.6 percent last week.
- Gold was steady at $1,316.10 an ounce.
- Brent crude inched higher by 0.06 percent to trade at 62.8 per barrel.
- Sugar ended lower for second day at 13.55 cents per pound; down 0.3 percent.
- Steel trades lower for fourth day; down 0.6 percent.
- Aluminium trades lower for second day; down 0.8 percent.
- Zinc trades lower; down 0.7 percent.
- Copper trades lower for fourth day; down 1.4 percent.
- Rubber snaps nine-day losing streak; up 0.1 percent.
Nifty Earnings To Watch
- GAIL India
Other Earnings To Watch
- Bank of India
- Britannia Industries
- CG Power And Industrial Solutions
- Corporation Bank
- Eris Lifesciences
- General Insurance Corporation of India
- Glaxosmithkline Consumer
- Indian Bank
- Indian Hotels
- J Kumar Infraprojects
- JK Tyre
- MEP Infra
- Power Finance Corporation
- UFO Moviez India
- United Bank of India
Earnings Reaction To Watch
Coal India Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 5 percent at Rs 20,708.47 crore.
- Net Profit up 4.21 percent to Rs 3004.8 crore.
- EBITDA up 18.23 percent to Rs 4,617.9 crore.
- EBITDA Margin at 21.3 percent versus 19.08 percent.
Tata Steel Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 21 percent at Rs 33,447 crore.
- Net profit up 433 percent at Rs 1,294 crore.
- EBITDA up 57 percent at 5,697 crore.
- Margins at 17 percent versus 13.1 percent.
Bata India Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 6 percent at Rs 674 crore.
- Net profit up 79 percent at Rs 68 crore.
- EBITDA up 42 percent at Rs 112 crore.
- Margins at 16.6 percent versus 12.4 percent.
Himatsingka Seide Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 9 percent at Rs 596 crore.
- Net profit up 11 percent at Rs 50 crore.
- EBITDA up 26 percent at Rs 117 crore.
- Margins at 19.6 percent versus 16.9 percent.
Sun TV Network Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 16 percent at Rs 683 crore.
- Net profit up 11 percent at Rs 267 crore.
- EBITDA up 12 percent at Rs 492 crore.
- Margins at 72 percent versus 74.6 percent.
Avanti Feeds Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 32 percent at Rs 706 crore.
- Net Profit up 98 percent at Rs 100.5 crore.
- EBITDA up 123 percent at Rs 154 crore.
- Margins at 21.7 percent versus 12.9 percent.
Centrum Capital Q3 (YoY)
- Total Income up 4 percent at Rs 26.9 crore.
- Net Profit up 182 percent at Rs 6 crore.
Sobha Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 27 percent at Rs 692 crore.
- Net Profit up 64 percent at Rs 53.4 crore.
- EBITDA up 43 percent at Rs 137.5 crore.
- Margins at 19.9 percent versus 17.9 percent.
National Aluminium Co. Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 20 percent at Rs 2389 crore.
- Net Profit up 401.5 percent at Rs 722 crore.
- EBITDA up 20.5 percent at Rs 344 crore.
- Margins at 14.4 percent versus 14.3 percent.
Mahindra & Mahindra Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 10.3 percent at Rs 11,491.5 crore.
- Net Profit up 16.8 percent at Rs 1305 crore.
- EBITDA up 19.6 percent at Rs 1693 crore.
- Margins 14.73 percent versus 13.6 percent.
Marico Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 15 percent at Rs 1624 crore.
- Net profit up 17 percent at Rs 220.5 crore.
- EBITDA up 8 percent at Rs 319 crore.
- Margins at 19.4 percent versus 20.6 percent.
Capacite Infraprojects Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 16 percent at Rs 366.5 crore.
- Net profit up 40 percent at Rs 22.7 crore.
- EBITDA up 9 percent at Rs 50 crore.
- Margins at 13.6 percent versus 14.4 percent.
Mahanagar Gas Q3 (QoQ)
- Net Sales up 9 percent at Rs 581 crore.
- Net profit down 0.6 percent at Rs 124 crore.
- EBITDA flat at Rs 201 crore.
- Margins at 34.6 percent versus 37.6 percent.
Oil India Q3 (QoQ)
- Revenue up 15.3 percent at Rs 2853 crore.
- Net Profit up 9 percent at Rs 705.2 crore.
- EBITDA down 21 percent at Rs 1224.5 crore.
- Margins at 42.9 percent versus 40.9 percent.
SBI Q3 (QoQ)
- NII flat at Rs 18,688 crore.
- Net Loss at Rs 2417 crore versus net profit of Rs 1581.5 crore.
- Domestic NIM at 2.61 percent.
- GNPA at 10.35 percent.
- NNPA at 5.61 percent.
Bank of Baroda Q3 (YoY)
- NII up 40 percent at Rs 4,394 crore.
- Net Profit down 56 percent at Rs 111.8 crore.
- NIM at 2.72 percent versus 2.31 percent (QoQ)
- GNPA at 11.31 percent versus 11.16 percent (QoQ)
- NNPA at 4.97 percent versus 5.05 percent (QoQ)
BPCL Q3 (QoQ)
- Revenue up 13.7 percent at Rs 60,616.4 crore.
- Net Profit down 9.1 percent at Rs 2144 crore.
- EBITDA down 9.6 percent at Rs 3188 crore.
- Margins at 5.3 percent versus 6.6 percent.
ONGC Q3 (QoQ)
- Revenue 21.3 percent At Rs 22,996 crore.
- Net Profit down 2.3 percent at Rs 5015 crore.
- EBITDA up 19.5 percent at Rs 10,919 crore.
- Margins at 47.5 percent versus 48.2 percent.
Kitex Garments Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 3.5 percent at Rs 147 crore.
- Net profit down 45 percent at Rs 17.6 crore.
- EBITDA down 24 percent at Rs 36.7 crore.
- Margins at 24.9 percent versus 34.1 percent.
SJVN Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 12 percent at Rs 437 crore.
- Net profit down 21 percent at Rs 206 crore.
- EBITDA down 22 percent at Rs 300 crore.
- Margins at 68.6 percent versus 77.6 percent.
Apex Frozen Foods Q3 (QoQ)
- Revenue down 8 percent at Rs 263 crore.
- Net profit down 15 percent at Rs 19 crore.
- EBITDA down 3 percent at Rs 30 crore.
- Margins at 11.4 percent versus 10.8 percent.
Suzlon Energy Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 33.5 percent at Rs 2204 crore.
- Net Loss at Rs 28 crore versus net profit of Rs 282.5 crore.
- EBITDA down 69 percent at Rs 231 crore.
- Margins at 10.5 percent versus 22.4 percent.
Syndicate Bank Q3 (YoY)
- NII up 17 percent at Rs 1623.2 crore.
- Net Loss at Rs 869.8 crore versus net profit of Rs 93.6 crore.
- GNPA at 9.62 percent versus 9.39 percent (QoQ).
- NNPA at 5.44 percent versus 5.76 percent (QoQ).
MOIL Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 16 percent at Rs 300 crore.
- Net Profit up 2.3 percent at Rs 103.8 crore.
- EBITDA down 6 percent at Rs 123 crore.
- Margins at 41 percent versus 36.8 percent.
Meghamani Organics Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 40.4 percent at Rs 450.43 crore.
- Net profit up 130.9 percent at Rs 62.61 crore.
- EBITDA up 93.4 percent at Rs 117.2 crore.
- Margins at 26 percent versus 18.9 percent.
Kesoram Industries Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 0.74 percent at Rs 883.01 crore.
- Net loss at Rs 43.17 crore versus net loss of Rs 74.67 crore.
- EBITDA loss at Rs 26.4 crore versus EBITDA profit of Rs 9.6 crore.
- Margins at -3 percent vs 1.1 percent.
- Other income at Rs 158.2 crore versus Rs 18.72 crore.
Wonderla Holidays Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 6.4 percent at Rs 63.8 crore.
- Net profit up 49 percent at Rs 6.5 crore.
- EBITDA up 58.4 percent at Rs 19.1 crore.
- Margins at 29.9 percent versus 17.6 percent.
Atul Auto Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 4.3 percent at Rs 129.0 crore.
- Net profit down 19.7 percent at Rs 9.7 crore.
- EBITDA down 17.3 percent at Rs 15.6 crore.
- Margins at 12.1 percent versus 13.9 percent.
Great Eastern Shipping Company Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 20.3 percent at Rs 864.7 crore.
- Net profit at Rs 30.06 crore versus net loss of Rs 2.6 crore.
- EBITDA down 2.2 percent at Rs 77.67 crore.
- Margins at 9.0 percent versus 11.1 percent.
VA Tech Wabag Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue up 20.3 percent at Rs 864.7 crore.
- Net profit at Rs 30.06 crore versus net loss of Rs 2.56 crore.
- EBITDA down by 2.2 percent at Rs 77.67 crore.
- Margins at 8.9 percent versus 11.1 percent.
Ramky Infrastructure Q3 (YoY)
- Revenue down 31.2 percent at Rs 256.8 crore.
- Net profit down 96.8 percent at Rs 0.86 crore.
- EBITDA loss at Rs 68.33 crore versus Rs 107.93 crore.
- Margins at -26.6 percent versus 28.9 percent.
Stocks To Watch
- ONGC Videsh led Indian Consortium comprising of ONGC Videsh, Indian Oil Corporation Limited and Bharat Petro Resources Limited to acquire 10 percent stake in Lower Zakum Concession, Offshore Abu Dhabi for $600 million. Indian Consortium annual share shall be about 2 MMT.
- Cadila Healthcare's Moraiya facility successfully completes U.S. FDA inspection
- Ajanta Pharma’s formulation facility at Dahej was inspected by U.S. FDA from Feb. 5-9. Form 483 was not issued by the FDA.
- Fortis Healthcare says it is still evaluating fund raising options.
- Tata Motors Group global wholesales at 114,797 in January 2018.
- NMDC total production and sales until Jan. 31 at 27.87 million tonnes and 28.89 million tonnes respectively.
- UCO Bank to allot preferential shares to government against infusion of Rs 5,130 crore.
- Dredging Corp secures Rs 30.76 crore contract for dredging of naval sites at Mumbai.
- Avadh Sugar & Energy: Anil Kumar Goel bought 54,000 shares or 0.5 percent equity at Rs 789.7 each.
- Fortis Healthcare: Societe Generale bought 38.11 lakh shares or 0.7 percent equity at Rs 141.53 each.
- Aster DM Healthcare IPO opens. Issue Price: Rs 180 - Rs 190 per equity share.
- Claris Lifesciences acquisition window from Feb12 to Feb. 20.
- Galaxy Surfactants added to BSE IPO Index.
- Gujarat NRE Coke suspended from trading.
Who's Meeting Whom
- Tata Motors to meet FII funds like Abu Dhabi Inv, Ontrio Teachers, Blackrock and others on Feb. 12 – 14.
- Crisil to meet analysts and institutional investors on Feb. 14.
- Alembic Limited bought 16,714 Alembic Pharma shares on Jan. 7-8.
- Rupee ended at 64.40 per dollar on Friday versus 64.23 On Thursday
Top Gainers And Losers
- Nifty February futures trade at 10,469.7 premium of 14.8 points versus discount of 3.7 points.
- February series-Nifty open interest up 7 percent , Bank Nifty open interest down 3 percent.
- India VIX ended at 19.2, up 8.2 percent.
- Max open interest for February series at 11,100 call strike , open interest at 57.6 lakh, open interest down 1 percent.
- Max open interest for February series at 10,000 Put, open interest at 57.6 lakh, up 3 percent.
- In ban: Balrampur Chini Mills, GMR Infrastructure, HDIL, Jain Irrigation.
- Out of ban: Fortis Healthcare
- Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in F&O ban. There is penalty in case of rollover of these intraday positions.
- Nifty PCR unchanged at 1.09.
- Nifty Bank PCR at 0.96 versus 0.87.
Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change
Deutsche Bank on ONGC
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 250.
- December quarter’s net profit was below estimates; Ebitda remained inline.
- Non-operating costs drag down profits.
- Other expenses increased due to higher workover expenses.
- Valuations still inexpensive.
- Expect earnings per share to compound at 11 percent through the financial years till March 2020.
Nomura on ONGC
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with price target of Rs 200.
- December quarter’s Ebitda and net profit were below estimates.
- Weak result driven by higher opex and depletion charges.
- Near-term gas production to increase from Vashistha field.
- Expect dividend announcement in next few weeks.
- Continue to prefer OMCs over upstream; Pecking order IOCL > BPCL > HPCL.
Deutsche Bank on BPCL
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 645.
- December quarter’s net profit and Ebitda were below estimates.
- Lower than expected inventory gains, higher other expenses depreciation impacted quarter.
- Marketing segment performance should improve in current quarter.
Motilal Oswal on BPCL
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 549.
- Ebitda significantly below estimate.
- Kochi refinery expansion is yet to stabilise.
- Pressure seen on marketing margins as commensurate price hikes not taken.
- Current decline in oil provides ample room for normalisation of margins.
IDFC Securities on HPCL
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 515.
- Inventory gains more than offset muted margins.
- Excluding inventory gains, core refining metrics were weak.
- Marketing earnings and volumes weak for the quarter.
- Miss on margins notwithstanding HPCL’s positive prospects over the financial years through March 2020.
Deutsche Bank on HPCL
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 535.
- December quarter’s net profit was above estimates.
- Higher-than-expected refining margin and inventory gains aided December quarter.
- Inventory gains offset weak marketing margins.
- Increase in margins since Jan to help marketing operating income in current quarter.
Edelweiss on SBI
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 420 from Rs 399
- December quarter’s performance disappointed in terms of revenue & slippage.
- Slippages high, but overall stress pool contained.
- Divergence and investment depreciation play spoilsport.
- Operating metrics seem to have bottomed out this quarter.
- Expect NIM to sustain or improve from current levels.
JPMorgan on SBI
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with price target of Rs 320.
- December quarter results missed on asset quality and treasury.
- Slippages were up due to NPA divergence arising from RBI inspection report.
- Loan growth remained subdued due to contraction of corporate loan book.
- Expect weak set of results to remain an overhang on the stock in near term.
Macquarie on Tata Steel
- Upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Underperform’; raised price target to Rs 800 from Rs 572.
- December quarter’s operating income above estimates led by strong margins in India.
- Strong India results partially offset by weak margins in Europe.
- Buoyant steel market fixes balance sheet.
- Stronger balance sheet + focus on domestic growth => Re-rating.
- Witnessing price tailwinds as steel market remains resilient.
- Rights issue to address leverage issues and growth capital.
JPMorgan on Tata Steel
- Maintained ‘Overweight’ with price target of Rs 1,015.
- December quarter reported highest ever India EBITDA; PAT impacted by provisions.
- TATA Europe lower seasonally weak quarter.
- TATA ideally positioned in the current upturn in steel environment.
- Stressed Asset Auction: TATA is among the lower bids so far.
- Q4 should see higher margins, but volumes in India could be impacted.
- Steel environment remains very supportive.
Jefferies on Mahindra and Mahindra
- Maintained ‘Hold’; raised price target to Rs 820 from Rs 757
- December quarter’s operating income missed slightly, led by better gross margins
- Better rural demand should support growth and margins in the next financial year.
- Structural issues in UV business could worsen post BS-VI implementation.
- Expect a downturn in tractor cycle in the financial year ending-March 2020 post three years of up-cycle
- Expect domestic tractor volume growth of 18 percent, 10 percent and -10 percent respectively over the current and next two financial years respectively.
Motilal Oswal on Mahindra and Mahindra
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 889.
- Operating performance miss led by higher other expense.
- Volume and realization growth drives revenues.
- Higher other expense dent operating income.
- High other income, low interest and depreciation support bottomline.
- Expect strong growth in tractor volumes on the back of normal monsoon.
- Expect passenger UVs to benefit from rural recovery and new launches.
Deutsche Bank on Marico
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 350.
- Marico has once again navigated the downturn well.
- Preference for volumes and market share over margins continues.
- Price hikes in Parachute will still not cover the sharp rise in Copra.
- Wholesale and rural largely recovered; Initial signs of shift to organised is visible.
- E-way bill may bring medium-term disruptions in the wholesale channel.
JPMorgan on Marico
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with price target of Rs 330.
- December quarter beat led by Parachute; VAHO/Saffola disappoint.
- Coconut Oil – Share gains drive strong performance.
- Male Grooming – Good performance.
- EBITDA margin performance above expectations led by sales and lower A&P.
- Copra inflation continues to weigh on gross margins.
Macquarie on Sun TV
- Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 1,132 from Rs 956.
- Ad growth at multi-quarter high.
- Digitisation in Tamil Nadu picking up gradually.
- Gearing to make its first non-south foray in the next fiscal.
- Expect ad outlook to improve and subscription uptick in TN.
- Upcoming launch of Colors Tamil is a key monitorable.
Axis Capital on Sun TV
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 1,280.
- December quarter’s ad revenue saw strong growth across its four languages.
- Healthy volumes and improved yield on market share gains led previous quarter.
- Believe worst is behind for Sun TV.
- Sun to benefit from revival in ad spends, strong subscription and turnaround in IPL.
Morgan Stanley on Bank of Baroda
- Maintained ‘Equal-weight’ with price target of Rs 195.
- December quarter missed driven by higher NPA provisions partially offset by higher PPoP.
- Key surprise was margins at 2.72 percent versus 2.31 percent last quarter.
- Await details on the impact on net interest.
Motilal Oswal on Bank of Baroda
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 185.
- Strong operational performance; Stressed assets declining rapidly.
- NII growth led by traction in loan growth, improvement in domestic CASA mix, slower growth in low-margin international business and improvement in asset mix.
- Slippages were elevated due to slippages from restructured book.
- Near-term earnings volatility likely to continue.
- Expect stress addition and credit costs to moderate from the next fiscal.
Deutsche Bank on Oil India
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 455.
- December quarter’s net profit and operating income was below due to high other expenses and low other income.
- Oil India benefiting from higher oil price.
- Expect higher oil net realisation driven by rise in global oil prices.
- Expect production to grow driven by supplies to Assam Gas cracker.
Jefferies on Oil India
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 465.
- December quarter’s a good quarter with EBITDA above estimates.
- Lower opex and higher LPG revenues with production steady QoQ.
- Higher oil prices bring higher subsidies; Govt.'s next fiscal’s subsidy budget is inadequate.
- Subsidies are key risk but keep Buy noting inexpensive valuations.
Macquarie on Strides Shasun
- Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 996 from Rs 1,100.
- Previous quarter saw an uptick in both the U.S. and Australia.
- New launches picking up well.
- Australia to be a key margin driver.
- EM & Institutional business to recover in the next quarter.
- Continue to like Strides and believe a continued revenue uptick in regulated markets.
- Expect earnings momentum to pick up in the next fiscal.
IDFC Securities on Strides Shasun
- Maintained ‘Outperformer’; cut price target to Rs 976.
- December quarter was weak, Institutional segment drags.
- Inline regulated market revenues and GMs.
- Sharply lower institutional revenues and other income.
- Expect pickup in EBITDA growth to drive earnings growth from next fiscal onwards.
- Remains positive on the growth potential of the new entity.
Motilal Oswal on Mahanagar Gas
- Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’; raised price target to Rs 1,228.
- December quarter’s operating income was above estimate.
- Operating income beat led by higher volumes and lower opex.
- Expect 6 percent and 8 percent volume growth in the next two fiscal.
- Current EBITDA/scm not sustainable; Expect EBITDA/scm of Rs 7.5/7 in the next two fiscal.
- Expect operating income and warnings per share to compound at 7 percent each over the financial years till March 2020.
Morgan Stanley on Aditya Birla Capital
- Maintained ‘Equal-weight’ with price target of Rs 185.
- Growth trends were strong across businesses.
- Miss on estimates driven by higher costs on account.
- NBFC - Some moderation in growth momentum and NIM; Rise in NPLs.
Axis Capital on Bata India
- Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’; raised price target to Rs 825 from Rs 725.
- December quarter was above estimates supported by change in mix towards higher ASP products.
- New launches, strong marketing campaigns to drive sales growth.
- Higher thrust on comfort and fashion to aid product mix and improve profitability.
- Expect Bata to benefit in the GST era.
Axis Capital on Alkem Laboratories
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 2,500.
- Strong gross margin and higher India and U.S. sales led to operating income beat
- Strong India growth on channel restocking; Scale-up in U.S. on track.
- Expect tax rate to normalize to 18 percent in the next fiscal.
- Expect strong growth in India sales given strong positioning.
- Ramp-up in the U.S. to drive operating leverage.
- Expect cumulative FCF generation of Rs 960 crore over the next two financial years.
IDFC Securities on Suzlon
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with price target of Rs 21.
- Strong execution in a challenging environment.
- Execution improved with Feed in Tariff PPAs getting approval.
- Believe Suzlon’s better product portfolio to help company.
- Strong order book and framework agreement bodes well.
- Expect strong execution and earnings recovery in the next fiscal.
Motilal Oswal on Coal India
- Maintain buy with TP of Rs 401.
- Q3FY18: In-line; e-auction offset drag of power sector priority.
- E-auction realization surprised positively, increasing 24 percent QoQ.
- Concerns around grade slippage and wage hike are now behind.
- Believe coal will continue to be the key fuel for electricity generation.
- Expect Coal India to achieve 6-7 percent volume growth.
- Expect earnings to compound at 30 percent over the financial years through March 2020.
- Valuations are attractive with 5-8 percent dividend yield.