(Bloomberg) -- The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 2 percent for the first time since September 2008, marking a rebound to a key psychological level last seen during the depths of the global financial crisis.
The past 14 months have witnessed a remarkable reversal for the coupon maturity that’s most sensitive to Federal Reserve expectations. After failing to eclipse 1 percent through much of 2016, the yield surged following President Donald Trump’s election victory, and kept climbing throughout 2017 as policy makers delivered on their promised three rate increases.
Data Friday showing that the underlying pace of U.S. inflation accelerated last month finally drove it above 2 percent, as the market-implied probability of a Fed rate increase in March exceeded 80 percent. Treasuries fell broadly, with the difference between yields on five- and 30-year maturities approaching the smallest since 2007.
The last time investors saw two-year Treasuries yielding 2 percent was Sept. 30, 2008, about two weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which sparked a global flight to safety. On Sept. 15, the day of the bankruptcy filing, the yield plunged 50 basis points, driving it below 2 percent on an intraday basis.
After a turbulent stretch where the Treasury and the Fed tried to bolster confidence in the financial system, the yield closed below 2 percent at the end of September 2008 and remained below that mark until today. In September 2011, it set a record low of 0.143 percent, with the Fed’s benchmark rate locked near zero.
Now, in a development that may have seemed unthinkable during much of the economic recovery, the two-year note provides investors with more income than dividends on the S&P 500 Index.
Just 18 months ago, investors grappled with the prospect of an unprecedented drop in 30-year yields below 2 percent. While that didn’t happen, the yield spread between long- and short-maturity Treasuries has continued to shrink, flattening the yield curve.
Bond traders are betting the Fed will gradually raise rates in 2018, meaning the two-year yield may have more room to climb. At the same time, any sign that policy makers will pause could halt the momentum that’s sent the yield higher for six consecutive quarters, the longest stretch since 2000.
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