State-Run Power Producers Likely To Outperform Private Peers

State-owned power producers are expected to fare better than their private peers in the quarter ended September, helped by improved output.

All-India power demand rose 5.2-percent at 201 billion units on a yearly basis during the quarter. Thermal power generation rose 9.5-percent, hydel output fell 5.5 percent and nuclear generation declined 20-percent during the quarter, a report by Edelweiss said. The plant load factor remained flat at near 65 percent, it said.

Overall revenue is expected to grow 5.9-percent, according to a consensus of analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Net profit is estimated to rise 6.2-percent while the operational profit (Ebitda) is likely to increase 6.8 percent over the year-ago quarter.

Edelweiss

• Power Grid: Strong earnings on healthy commissioning.
• NTPC: Growth following improvement in generation volume.
• Adani Power: Likely to extend losses.
• Tata Power: Subdued results.
• JSW Energy: May take a hit due to lower generation at Vijayanagar and Ratnagiri.
• CESC: Expect subdued results.

Citi

• Power Grid: Watch out for capitalisation and capex growth.
• NTPC: Track management commentary.

Motilal Oswal

• NTPC: Growth partly offset by impact of change in gross calorific value measurement.
• Power Grid: Expect growth driven by regulated equity.
• Tata Power: Higher global coal prices (since the company has stake in Indonesian mines) will offset fuel price hike at its Mundra plant. Expect underrecovery at Mundra to halve over the previous three months.
• JSW Energy: Ratnagiri load factor at 51 percent and Vijayanagar at 39 percent.