China's Economy Accelerates as Retail, Investment Pick Up
China’s Gross domestic product increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier
(Bloomberg) -- China’s economy accelerated for a second-straight quarter as investment picked up, retail sales rebounded and factory output strengthened amid robust credit growth and further strength in property markets.
Gross domestic product increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 6.8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. It was the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years.
Other indicators released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed:
- Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 9.2 percent for the first three months, accelerating from 8.1 percent growth last year
- Retail sales increased 10.9 percent from a year earlier in March, compared with a median estimate of 9.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey
- Industrial output rose 7.6 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with an estimated 6.3 percent rise
"For the first time in the recent years, China starts a year with a strong headline GDP," said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong, who correctly forecast the growth pace. "Thanks to strong investment and property, the economy is performing well."
The expansion further cements a rebound as producer prices surge, industrial output picks up and soaring credit fuels investment. Policy makers have shifted to a more neutral monetary stance as they seek to ease financial risk and reduce excess industrial capacity.
"The first quarter growth is mainly driven by reflation and very strong property sales and investment," said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. "This strong data would give more confidence to maintain a tightening stance."
The broadest measure of new credit rose more than estimated last month amid strong growth in shadow banking. Aggregate financing grew 2.12 trillion yuan ($308 billion).
Nominal Surge
In current-price terms, the economy expanded 11.8 percent from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
"That’s making the problem of excess leverage look a little more manageable – at least as long as factory reflation stays strong," BI economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a report.
The labor market has been holding up too: The surveyed jobless rate fell in March from February, while the level in big cities was below 5 percent at end of last month, the NBS said. China added 3.34 million new jobs in the first quarter.
Other data pointed to further rebalancing away from the old industrial growth drivers. Consumption contributed 77.2 percent to growth in the first quarter, an NBS spokesman said at a briefing in Beijing. Last year, 64.6 percent of growth came from consumption.
"The rebound in retail sales growth was particularly important as it indicates that consumer spending remains strong," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit in Singapore. "The upturn in Chinese growth is a very positive indicator for the Asia Pacific and world growth in 2017, as well as underpinning the near-term outlook for global commodities."
Brighter Outlook
Forecasters responded by raising full-year growth estimates. Zhu Haibin, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, boosted his to 6.7 percent from 6.6 percent, citing expectations for "solid growth momentum for the rest of the year." Nomura Holdings Inc. analysts Yang Zhao and Wendy Chen raised their projection to 6.7 percent from 6.5 percent.
One measure of consumer earnings slowed. Growth of median per-capita disposable income decelerated to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down from 8.3 percent last year and slower than GDP expansion for the first time since NBS began releasing the gauge in March 2014.
Despite recent property tightening measures, investment momentum is likely to stay strong in coming months amid heavy infrastructure investment. The April 1 announcement of the new Xiongan economic zone portends massive construction spending and suggests authorities are likely to remain reliant on investment to help support longer-term growth.
New Area
The Xiongan New Area will "hugely" promote economic development, an NBS spokesman said at a briefing in Beijing.
Elsewhere in data released Monday:
- China, which produces half the world’s steel, churned out a record quantity in March as production of crude steel expanded 1.8 percent from a year earlier
- Coal production rebounded in March after the government said it doesn’t intend to reintroduce widespread restrictions this year as long as prices remain acceptable to regulators
- Oil production stagnated in the first quarter, averaging 3.91 million barrels a day
Investment in property development rose 9.1 percent in the first three months from a year earlier, compared with 8.9 percent in the first two months and 6.9 percent in 2016. Yet developers may find 2017 more challenging, as about a dozen cities have imposed tighter restrictions on purchases to curb a frenzy of speculation.
"Growth remained strong on the back of continued strength in housing activity, resilient infrastructure investment, and better external demand," said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "The strong growth and better external demand has provided room for a faster pace of countercyclical monetary policy tightening."
--With assistance from Miao Han Kevin Hamlin Yinan Zhao and Ramsey Al-Rikabi
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at xpi1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns
With assistance from Xiaoqing Pi