Gujarat Poll Of Polls: Congress Inroads Into BJP’s Stronghold
Battle for Gujarat boils down to Central Gujarat says pollster
Pollsters, political pundits and analysts are largely predicting a win for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party in Gujarat, with the rider that it is turning out to be a closer fight than expected.
“Whenever a trend is in one direction, it tends to go higher on election day,” said R Jagannathan, editorial director of Swarajya magazine that describes itself as “a big tent for liberal right of centre discourse”. He was referring to various pre-election surveys that give the BJP an edge in number of seats and project a drop in margins for the the party since August.
The BJP’s margin is going down consistently in all the polls, which is why it is difficult to say now that the BJP is home and dry. This time, if they pull it off it will be quite a miracle.R Jagannathan, Editorial Director, Swarajya
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder editor of CVoter, which conducted its own pre-election surveys, said performance in central Gujarat will be a crucial determinant of the final outcome.
The Congress seems to have an edge in the northern and southern parts of the state, Deshmukh explained, while the BJP is stronger in Saurashtra. But the Congress’ advantage evens out as Saurashtra has more seats. Central Gujarat, with 60 odd seats, is where the battle lies, he said.
The final battle remains in Central Gujarat which is also known as the epicentre of the 2002 riot region.Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder Editor, CVoter
But even within Central Gujarat, the verdict could be split between rural and urban areas, according to Desmukh. While the BJP seems stronger in the urban areas, the Congress may have an advantage in the rural hinterland.
And Gujarat being one of the most urbanised states in India, election outcome will be determined by one crucial factor. “If BJP does not manage to hold on to its seats in urban areas, then it could be a keener contest,” Deshmukh said.
The biggest boost for the ruling party, though, will come from Prime Minister Modi’s campaign. Deshmukh pointed out that the polls which predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Congress were conducted when the Congress campaign was at its peak and Modi had not started his campaign in full force.
Now that the worst for the BJP is over and the Prime Minister has started his campaign, I believe that a lot of critical damage control can be done could be through the campaign of the Prime Minister alone.Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder Editor, CVoter
Also Read: Modi May Face Photo Finish on Home Turf