Where Will Global GDP Growth Come From Over the Next Year
China’s share of global GDP growth is expected represent 28 percent of the total followed by India at 13.7% and the U.S. 10.5%.
(Bloomberg) -- The global economy is expected to hold roughly at a 3.6 percent pace of annual GDP growth through 2024, according to International Monetary Fund projections. But, who are the biggest contributors to this growth?
Bloomberg used IMF projections, adjusted for purchasing power parity, to dissect where this growth will come from over the next year.
China’s share of global GDP growth is expected represent 28 percent of the total followed by India and the U.S.. The top five are rounded out by Indonesia and Russia. Russia will play a larger role in global growth than many Group of Seven countries including Germany, Japan, U.K., France, Spain or Italy.
Even though China’s growth rate has slowed, the size of its economy and its pace of growth means that it will remain the top contributor to global GDP growth by a large margin in the near term. The U.S., while still expected to contribute a sizable portion of global growth, is projected to see its share shrink to 10.5 percent from 12.3 percent last October as the democratization of GDP growth spreads.
Since Bloomberg last conducted this exercise in October, global growth will increasingly come from Asian emerging markets. India is expected to take 13.7 percent of global grow - up from 12.9 percent last fall. Indonesia and South Korea both add a tenth of a percentage point too.
Major economies such as Italy, Canada, Germany and France are all expected to be less of a factor in global GDP growth in the coming year.
To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net;Wei Lu in New York at wlu30@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net, Marco Babic
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