French Slump, Weidmann’s Silence, Slow Global Recovery: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started and send you into the weekend:

• France’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the final quarter of 2019. GDP readings for Spain, Italy and the entire euro area are due later Friday
• While Jens Weidmann’s colleagues at the European Central Bank have been eagerly airing views on the policy review that will occupy them this year, the Bundesbank president has been conspicuously quiet
• Trade pain. Policy uncertainty put a dent in global trade, with prolonged tensions pointing to a slow recovery in 2020
• Gaining potency. Denmark’s subzero policy rates for almost eight years is finally becoming more effective. Danish savers who want to avoid charges on deposits are either forced to invest abroad or consume more
• Policy leak? The U.K. financial watchdog is examining the spike in the British pound that occurred about 15 seconds before Thursday’s Bank of England’s interest-rate decision
• Gung-ho. Britons are more optimistic about their personal financial situation and the wider economy after Boris Johnson’s election win. Johnson’s government wants to return the economy to growth rates it enjoyed before the financial crisis. Mark Carney isn’t convinced that’s realistic
• Viral impact. The coronavirus pandemic could take China’s first-quarter GDP growth down to 4.5%, the weakest since quarterly data began in 1992, writes Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu. Tom Orlik wraps potential repercussions for the mainland and across the globe
• Demand fades. The longest pullback in U.S. business investment since 2009 shows little sign of ending and could weigh on the economy just as household spending also slows. Meanwhile, Thursday’s growth data may be partly an optical illusion even as President Donald Trump says the U.S. economy has become a “roaring geyser of opportunity”
• Second chance. India’s annual budget on Saturday is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second opportunity in seven months to refresh policy priorities to support an economy on a downward spiral

To contact the reporter on this story: Anirban Nag in Mumbai at anag8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Devidutta Tripathy

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