Virus Impact, Scramble for Data, French Growth Optimism: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your week started:

• China’s Hubei province is now in the third week of a shutdown triggered by the virus that has killed hundreds of people -- and halted an industrial powerhouse the size of Sweden
  • Stable employment -- a top priority for China -- is under threat from the virus outbreak. The damage will determine the intensity of stimulus, writes Chang Shu, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg Economics. Chinese travel over the Spring Festival period declined 40% from a year earlier, the transport ministry said
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has confessed that it’s “very hard” to understand China’s economy, and the coronavirus has made that exponentially more difficult
• Meanwhile, the virus is leading to a mad scramble for the best data, as economists grapple with ways to gauge the real-time impact on the world economy
• Denmark and Switzerland have long shared the world record in negative interest rates, at minus 0.75%. But that may be about to change
• France’s central bank is expecting a punchy rebound by the economy at the start of the year after disruption by strikes and a surprise contraction at the end of 2019

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Fergal O'Brien

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