Uneasy Trade Truce, Stumbling Confidence, ECB Outlook: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Thursday started:

• The U.S. and China are headed for an uneasy trade-war truce and a return to the negotiating table.
  • In the meantime, President Donald Trump said substantial additional U.S. tariffs would be placed on goods from China if there’s no progress on a trade deal after his planned meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Japan
  • He also said India’s recent increase in tariffs on U.S. goods is “unacceptable” and should be withdrawn
• Meanwhile, Bill Dudley writes that Trump shouldn’t want a weaker dollar
• Economic confidence among chief executive officers at U.S. small and midsize businesses stumbled in the second quarter to the lowest level in nearly a decade on worsening views of current conditions and a dimmer outlook
• Euro-area economic confidence is also falling, declining to its lowest level since 2016 in June as deepening trade tensions and a more cautious outlook for the global economy weigh on business and consumer sentiment
  • Against the gloomy backdrop, the European Central Bank will flag next month that it’s ready to reduce interest rates and then deliver a cut in September, economists predict
• Andrew Bailey should be the perfect candidate to lead the Bank of England. But some of the very qualities that have marked him as a frontrunner to replace Mark Carney as governor may trip him up before he reaches the finish line
• The fastest growth among major economies doesn’t seem to be creating enough jobs for India -- listen to our latest Stephanomics Podcast here

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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