U.S. Is More Powerful Than China in Asia-Pacific, Study Says

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. wields more power in Asia-Pacific than any other country but China is gaining ground due to President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies, according to a think tank study ranking the region’s major players.

Japan follows in the third spot as a leading backer of the global order rattled by Trump, while North Korea has moved up in the rankings as leader Kim Jong Un shakes off its reclusive image through landmark diplomacy, the Sydney-based Lowy Institute said in its second annual Asia Power Index, released Wednesday.

“Under most scenarios, short of war, the U.S. is unlikely to halt the narrowing power differential between itself and China,” the institute said in a statement. “The Trump administration’s focus on trade wars and balancing trade flows one country at a time has done little to improve the glaring weakness of U.S. influence -- its economic relationships.”

The world’s two largest economies are at the forefront of most indicators in Lowy’s interactive digital tool, which ranks 25 countries and territories based on measures including military capability and defense networks, economic resources and relationships, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience and future resources.

The top 10 countries for overall power in the Asia-Pacific region are the U.S., China, Japan, India, Russia, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, Lowy said. While China and North Korea have made the highest gains since the index was introduced last year, Japan -- which Lowy said has become the leader of the liberal order in Asia -- shares major power status with India.

The report says China is “rapidly closing in” on the U.S., but warns that “Beijing faces political and structural challenges that may make it difficult to establish undisputed primacy in the region.”

Malaysia, Vietnam and New Zealand are Lowy’s “most improved” middle powers, after North Korea.

“North Korea’s high-stakes power game pays off for it in 2019, but is far from complete,” the report said.

Taiwan is the only country or territory that saw a significant downward shift in its overall score.

Australia ranked second in the defense networks category, reflecting “the country’s depth of engagement with its closest ally, the U.S., but also its active non-allied defense diplomacy in the region,” Lowy said.

In a survey of experts conducted by Lowy that ranks the efficacy of political leaders in advancing diplomatic interests, Chinese President Xi Jinping was first, followed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong, New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

--With assistance from Karen Leigh.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Canberra at jscott14@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net, Jon Herskovitz, Karen Leigh

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