U.S. Recession Risk, Draghi’s Cushion, China Outlook: Eco Day

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Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • As the bond market’s yield curve flashes warning signs of a U.S. recession, some key economic indicators are offering more conflicting signals about the outlook
  • Stephen Moore, who Donald Trump may nominate for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board, told the New York Times in an interview that the central bank should immediately reverse course and lower interest rates by half a percentage point
  • Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank is ready to soften the impact of negative interest rates if they are found to harm the transmission of its monetary policy
  • U.S. and Chinese officials resume high-level trade talks this week as they close in on a deal that could just be the first step in the long road to economic peace
    • Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is expected to ease policy less aggressively in 2019 compared with the previous year, according to analysts
  • When Adrian Orr took the helm of New Zealand’s central bank a year ago today, hopes were high that he’d usher in a new era of transparency and engagement on interest rates. That hasn’t quite happened
  • In a world of persistently low inflation and slowing economic growth, central banks are finding a useful instrument in their toolboxes to curb financial risk
  • Finally, here’s a look at how Japan is pioneering the way a wealthy nation ages into the future

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