U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week for First Time Since March

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. jobless claims rose last week for the first time since March, the clearest sign yet of a pause in the economic recovery as coronavirus cases surge in much of the country and force businesses to close their doors once again.

Initial claims through regular state programs increased to 1.42 million in the week ended July 18, up 109,000 from the prior week, a Labor Department report showed Thursday; on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims declined. There were 16.2 million who filed for ongoing benefits through those programs in the period ended July 11, down from the prior week and less than forecast.

Read more: Bloomberg’s TOPLive blog on the jobless claims data

Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast 1.3 million initial claims, little changed from the prior week, with projections as high as 1.55 million. The four-week average, a less-volatile figure, fell by the least since April.

U.S. stocks were mixed, while 10-year Treasury yields remained lower after the report. The jobless claims figures may reflect both renewed closings of businesses such as restaurants, as well as layoffs at other firms that have seen a sustained dropoff in revenue.

Other challenges for the labor market include the imminent potential expiration of supplemental federal jobless benefits, and the widespread struggles of businesses that rely on in-person interaction, such as restaurants and airlines.

“Because of resurgence of the virus, a lot of firms that thought they were going to be opening up are instead not opening up,” said Robert Brusca, president of Fact & Opinion Economics. “While parts of the economy are still recovering, doing better, there are substantial parts, like in the service sector of the economy, that are really feeling the pain.”

Seasonal Caveat

One caveat is that the headline figure was inflated by seasonal adjustments, making it trickier to understand the real trend.

The Labor Department said its seasonal factors had assumed an unadjusted decline of about 247,000 initial claims; the count fell by about 142,000. That resulted in an increase of more than 100,000 after the department applied its seasonal adjustment.

July claims normally have seasonal swings as automakers shut down to tune equipment and subsequently reopen, a trend that was generally absent this year as companies closed early amid the pandemic, according to Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“Some of the increase in claims can be attributed to seasonal factors, but a deterioration in the pace of improvement has been evident since mid-June. The results reinforce the current high stakes as Congress negotiates the next aid package, including enhanced jobless benefits due to expire next week.”

-- Andrew Husby

Read more for the full reaction note.

Those employees would normally file claims when temporarily laid off in June, and then get off rolls in July when back at work, but that didn’t happen this year. So unadjusted claims didn’t rise in early June as much as prior years, and they didn’t fall as much as usual in July.

Conversely, the continuing claims figures may be worse than they appear, because the decline was skewed by filing schedules in states such as California and Florida, Shepherdson said. Even so, the data indicate jobs will probably be up overall in July, though gains could stall in August, he said.

A separate report Thursday showed Americans remained pessimistic about the economic outlook. The monthly Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index was little changed in July.

The labor data showed initial claims in California -- the most populous state and a hotspot for the virus -- rose on an unadjusted basis last week. Other states with increases included Alabama, Connecticut, Nevada and Tennessee. Declines were reported in Florida, Georgia, Texas and New Jersey.

The latest layoffs may weigh on July’s monthly employment figures, as last week included the 12th of the month, making it the reference period for the jobs report due Aug. 7.

Data earlier this week underscore a tenuous labor market. The Census Bureau’s weekly Household Pulse survey showed the number of employed Americans dropped by about 6.7 million from mid-June through mid-July, the majority of that in the second week of July from the first.

Read more:

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• U.S. Jobs Picture Worsens With Census Survey Showing July Drop
• Bloomberg Economics: What Sweden Shows Trump on Lockdowns, Growth
• Depressed U.S. Activity, More Jobless Point to Recovery Stalling

Meanwhile, more than half of business closures in a Yelp survey are permanent, indicating some of the lost jobs aren’t coming back anytime soon.

Broader measures of unemployed Americans in Thursday’s data showed conditions remain difficult, with the caveat that some figures don’t necessarily present an accurate count.

States reported 975,000 people filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program for those not eligible for regular state programs such as the self-employed and gig workers. That figure was higher than the prior week.

And the total number of unadjusted continuing claims fell to 31.8 million three weeks ago from 32 million. This figure, though, likely largely reflects continued overcounting of PUA applications as states clear backlogs.

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