U.S. Gets Back to Work With Jobs Report in Focus
U.S. Gets Back to Work With Jobs Report in Focus: Eco Week
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The focus will be firmly on U.S. workers this week as the world’s biggest economy releases its latest jobs numbers.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey are expecting the report to show the nation added 188,000 in the month -- a reading that would be the highest since August and help vindicate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s signal that its easing cycle is currently on hold.
“One of the biggest questions looming over the report is whether the loss of economic momentum into year-end will weigh on the pace of hiring, as well.”
--Bloomberg Economics’ Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger
Traders won’t be hearing from the Fed this week, as officials observe their quiet period before December’s decision. That opens the way for their counterparts elsewhere to take center stage, as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde testifies to lawmakers, the Bank of Canada sets rates and Chilean officials announce a policy decision that’s been brought forward by two days due to social unrest and market turmoil.
This week also sees the release of global manufacturing data amid concerns that its weakness may be spreading to services.
Here’s what happened last week and below is our overview of what’s going on in the world economy in the coming days:
The U.S. and Canada
Aside from Friday’s payrolls report, the U.S. will also release manufacturing data and durable goods numbers. Investors will be on the lookout for any signs of finalization of phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal.
In Canada, the central bank will announce its final decision of the year on Wednesday, with economists expecting officials to maintain interest rates at the 1.75%-level they’ve been at for all of 2019. Job numbers, consumer confidence and productivity are due their this week.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
The highlight of the European week comes early, with Lagarde’s testimony at the European Parliament on Monday. After an initial month of near silence on monetary policy that has exacerbated market fuzziness about her thinking, the remarks may represent the first opportunity of her presidency for investors to gauge her views about the potential policy path she may pursue.
ECB Executive Board nominees Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel will appear before lawmakers on Tuesday, before German industrial data provide a snapshot of the euro area’s struggling growth engine.
Turkey will release a growth report on Monday and inflation data the following day, both of which will inform the central bank’s next move as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renews his push for lower rates.
Meanwhile, after halving its interest rate to 35% two weeks ago, Zimbabwe could on Monday keep policy on hold as price growth is heading back to hyperinflationary levels and the economy is projected to contract. South Africa will probably announce on Tuesday that gross domestic product shrank again in the third quarter, adding to the woes of an economy on the brink of losing its last investment-grade credit rating.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics full Week Ahead for the EMEA
Latin America
Chile is enduring its worst social unrest in a decade, with violent protests forcing the closure of shops, paralyzing much of the public transport system and leading many people to cut short their working hours.
To provide more information to the market during such a troubled time, the central bank has brought forward its next policy decision to Dec. 4, when officials will probably cut rates to 1.5%. The quarterly monetary report, which includes estimates for growth and investment, is published a day later.
Chile Monetary Policy Interest Rate
In Brazil, data will provide insight on whether a long-awaited pickup in growth is under way. Third-quarter GDP is expected to show an increase of 0.5% from the April-June period. Industrial production numbers for October, the first major data point for the fourth quarter, are also due.
Separately, Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez will probably announce his cabinet on Friday. Investors will be watching for clues on how moderate or populist his team’s economic policies will be.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America
Asia
Australia’s central bank is forecast to hold fire on Tuesday as it watches its three rate reductions since June trickle through the economy. Governor Philip Lowe laid out his thinking on unconventional policies last week, leaving the door open to two more 25 basis-point cuts before he would entertain using quantitative easing.
Meanwhile, with the Indian economy slowing sharply, the central bank will probably to cut again on Thursday.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
--With assistance from Craig Stirling, Malcolm Scott, Benjamin Harvey, Theophilos Argitis and Matthew Malinowski.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, ;Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss, Craig Stirling
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