U.S. Consumer Credit Tops Forecast on Non-Revolving Debt

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U.S. consumer credit increased more than forecast in August as school loans and other non-revolving debt rose by the most in three years.

Total credit climbed $17.9 billion from the prior month, after a revised $23 billion gain in July that was the largest since late 2017, Federal Reserve figures showed Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $15 billion increase. Outstanding non-revolving credit jumped $19.8 billion.

Key Insights

• The advance in non-revolving debt, which includes educational loans, was the biggest since August 2016 and probably reflected the start of a new school year at the nation’s universities. The gain more than offset a $1.9 billion decrease in revolving debt outstanding.
• The revolving-credit figure signals households are trying to keep their budgets in check.
• As businesses cut back on investment and the manufacturing sector shrinks further, the nation relies increasingly on consumers to spend and propel growth.
• Data out last week showed cooling job growth and the weakest wage gains in more than a year. Still unemployment hit a half-century low, which should support future consumption.
• Non-revolving debt outstanding also includes loans for cars.

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• Credit expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in August, after growing 6.7% the month prior.
• Lending by the federal government, which is mainly for student loans, jumped by $19.4 billion before seasonal adjustment.
• The consumer credit report doesn’t track debt secured by real estate, such as home mortgages.

--With assistance from Jordan Yadoo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Vince Golle

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