U.S.-China Trade, OPEC+, Japan’s Struggling Services: Eco Day

Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed doubts about last year’s trade deal with China, telling the New York Times that in some instances “it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers”
  • The Federal Reserve is downplaying the risk of lingering inflation, but companies including Conagra Brands Inc. and PepsiCo Inc expect inputs from raw ingredients to labor to remain substantially more expensive in coming months
    • For the upcoming earnings season, the market will therefore be focusing on companies that have the capacity to pass on costs
  • OPEC and its allies struck a deal to inject more oil into the recovering global economy on Sunday, in a truce that will ease a looming supply squeeze and reduce the risk of an inflationary oil price spike
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to get the U.K. back to normal risks being derailed amid a public outcry over his attempt to dodge pandemic isolation rules, while Covid-19 cases soar the most in the world
    • The sharply rising level of infections means the country is still nowhere near returning to “normal”
    • The Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel says he’s opposed to paring back stimulus for the economy now
  • The European Central Bank’s policy meeting this week will highlight the extent to which it has begun a new era of teamwork with the Bundesbank
  • Traders are questioning what political risks, including the socio-economic impact of the pandemic and approaching elections, will mean for the monetary policy of developing nations
  • Japan said weak consumer spending and struggling services continue to hold back the recovery, highlighting the divide between businesses hampered by on-again-off-again restrictions and the country’s exporters
    • The surge in Covid-19 cases will probably make the public more wary of engaging in social activity, according to Bloomberg Economics, but near-term activity should be supported by the start of the Olympic Games on July 23, and an associated public holiday
  • Finally, here’s what’s to look out for in the world economy this week

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