Turkey’s Rate Battle, Central Bank Unknowns, ECB’s Lane: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the week.

• President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s battle for lower interest rates risks sharpening inequalities in Turkey’s booming economy and hurting his working-class supporters
• Five major areas of “unknowable uncertainty” that remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde and RBA Governor Philip Lowe have identified
• ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane calls the current period of inflation “very unusual and temporary,” adding that there are no signs that it is a “chronic” situation
• Australia and the U.K. are both “very confident” that their free trade agreement would be finalized by year-end, according to the Australian British Chamber of Commerce
• Closer to home, a trade deal between the U.K. and the European Union will be thrown into question if Britain revokes its commitments to the Northern Ireland protocol, the Irish foreign minister warned
• Germany’s economic growth will boost tax revenue by 160 billion euros ($185 billion) more than previously expected through 2025
• Supply-chain jams are leading to congestion at ports around the world, keeping prices elevated
• Bond buying by central banks — or QE — is a popular tool with surprisingly little agreement on what’s actually accomplished
• China’s record trade surplus is cushioning the economy from weakening domestic demand and giving policy makers room to delay stimulus. But it won’t be enough to keep growth from slowing further
• China’s lottery sales, which tend to fall as the jobless rate rises, have dropped since August, pointing to a worsening employment situation than the official data shows
• Amid all the hand-wringing over global supply-chain snarls and how they’re fanning inflation, little attention in the U.S. is being paid to the demand side of the economy

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With assistance from Bloomberg