Trump Election Ace, Japan’s U.S. Debt, Lagarde Vigilant: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Friday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to take you through to the weekend:

• While bombast from the Trump administration suggests the president can coast to re-election on robust economic tailwinds, the historically accurate misery index suggests a less clear-cut outcome, writes Carl Riccadonna
• Japan widened its lead as the top foreign owner of U.S. government debt in November, five months after the country overtook China in the rankings
• Christine Lagarde’s first meeting as ECB chief started with calls for “vigilance” on the efficacy of current stimulus measures, even as officials agreed to maintain their stance for now
• Several economic reports showed Americans are increasingly upbeat, more are catching the home-buying bug and perhaps most importantly, they’re still spending
• As the first phase agreement aims to resolve a series of longstanding trade disputes between Beijing and Washington, it may bolster Trump’s view that unilateral tariffs are a better enforcement tool than the WTO
• Meantime, Trump promised further negotiations to tackle some of U.S. companies’ most long-standing complaints would begin “very, very shortly” and that tariffs on some $360 billion in imports from China would remain as leverage
• Economists played down the prospect that the first phase of the trade deal will lift American economic growth in 2020
• Sweden’s government has everyone wondering whether it just sent a thinly veiled message to the central bank after the finance ministry published a set of forecasts that included a return to negative interest rates
• Pound traders piling into bets on a rate cut are getting a warning from strategists preaching the virtue of patience
• Turkey’s central bank opted for the smallest interest-rate reduction since embarking on an easing cycle under a new governor, while South Africa unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate to the lowest level in four years
• The U.S. Labor Department said it will ban computers from the room where journalists receive advance access to major economic reports, in an effort to ensure a level playing field
• In China’s carefully choreographed diplomatic calendar, the itinerary of the president’s first overseas trip can send signals about his long-term strategic goals. Myanmar is 2020’s winner

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Jackson at pjackson53@bloomberg.net, Alexandra Veroude

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