Treasury's Verdict on China, Budget D-Day, Bali Wrap: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Happy Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day and week started:

  • The U.S. Treasury is poised to render a verdict on President Donald Trump’s claim that China is manipulating its currency as a trade war between the two nations intensifies and rattles markets
    • China’s central bank chief said it’s considering a range of risks in its currency policy
  • Trump threatens to impose another round of tariffs on China
    • China says it didn’t want a trade war, but is ready to stage a defense
    • Mexico’s ex-president advises that it holds its ground like Mexico and Canada
  • It’s budget D-Day for Europe: Italy and other euro-area governments must submit their proposals to the EU commission by midnight tonight
  • The revival of a long-established relationship between unemployment and inflation is proceeding -- ever so slowly, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn
    • Fellow Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that more clarity on the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2011 will come by the summer of next year, but policymakers will keep their options open for a while longer yet
  • Look to bond yields and not asset purchases for the first sign that the Bank of Japan is finally ready to start exiting its years-long monetary stimulus, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview
  • That’s a wrap on Bali: Here’s the latest on happenings over the weekend out of the IMF and World Bank meetings, where officials urged the U.S. and China to talk on trade, and some broader takeaways
    • Bank Indonesia’s Perry Warjiyo told Bloomberg that clarity on the gradual pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes was a key takeaway from the Bali meetings
  • Brexit talks are hitting a stalemate, with a November deadline in doubt
  • Bank of England chief warns against using investment flows as a weapon in the global financial system
  • Kazakhstan’s policy makers mull a range of moves on policy tightening beyond rate hikes
  • Romania may have kept borrowing costs unchanged for five months, but that doesn’t mean it’s done with raising rates

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