Vietnam Learns Trade Wars Have No Winners

(Bloomberg) --

If ever there was proof that trade wars have no victors, that came as the U.S. Commerce Department imposed duties of more than 400% on steel imports from Vietnam.

The southeast Asian nation has been touted as an early winner as companies shift supply chains away from China to places more shielded from U.S. tariffs like Mexico and Malaysia. But Vietnam’s swelling trade surplus with the U.S. is drawing the wrong kind of attention from Washington of late.

• The latest shoe dropped late Tuesday, with the U.S. saying certain products produced in South Korea and Taiwan were being shipped to Vietnam for minor processing before being exported to U.S. as corrosion-resistant steel products and cold-rolled steel.
• Customs officials will collect cash deposits at rates as high as 456% on imports of the steel products produced in Vietnam using material from South Korea and Taiwan.
• The U.S. turned up the heat in May, when the Treasury Department added Vietnam to a currency and economic policy watch list.
• President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure last week when asked about unfair trading practices, calling Vietnam “almost the single worst abuser of everybody.”
• Vietnam is far from the only victim in Asia these days. South Korea’s trade-hungry economy continues to suffer from the global tensions and a downturn in the tech cycle. The finance ministry trimmed its projection for growth this year by 0.2 percentage point to a range of 2.4% to 2.5%.

Charting the Trade War

Australia’s trade surplus swelled to a record in May as mineral exporters cashed in on resurgent iron ore prices, highlighting the nation’s connection to the corners of China’s economy benefiting from fiscal stimulus.

Today’s Must Reads

• Scotch on the rocks | Millennials take note: Scottish and Irish whiskey are among the latest European products that the Trump administration is proposing to hit with import duties. 
• Mercosur backlash | South American leaders are heralding their new free-trade deal with Europe. But the agriculture industry is reading the fine print and finding some details problematic.
• Shifting Asian production | HP and Dell plan to move as much as 30% of their notebook production away from China to avert U.S. tariffs, according to Nikkei. 
• Trump’s country bounce | Uncle Sam’s $16 billion gift to a key block of the president’s political base is paying dividends in the form of resurgent optimism on American farms.
• China’s rising appetite | China is considering buying some U.S. agricultural products as a gesture of goodwill amid the resumption of trade talks between Beijing and Washington.

Economic Analysis

• Red lights flashing | Early signs point to more weakness in China, reflecting a blow from U.S. tariffs
• Japan-Korea friction | South Korea’s tech industry may face delayed profit growth amid Japan rift 
• U.S. whack-a-mole |  Just when the U.S. and China reached a truce, Asia hit again by Washington

--With assistance from Michael Heath.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brendan Murray at brmurray@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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