Tariff Clouds Rain Pain on the World's Factory Floor

(Bloomberg) --

With corporate earnings season in full swing, an ominous trade-war theme is emerging: The world's industrial economy, already covered by clouds of uncertainty, is bracing for the storm in the second half of 2019.

Here's a fresh rundown of how tariffs are hurting bottom lines, realigning supply chains and weighing on the outlook for manufacturing:

• Caterpillar, the U.S. maker of heavy machinery, said sales growth at dealerships in June was the slowest in two years. One analyst called the company's results a warning shot for capital spending broadly.
• Royal Philips, the Dutch maker of goods ranging from medical scanners to electric toothbrushes, is realigning its business into regional manufacturing hubs to contain the fallout from the trade war.
• Harley-Davidson had second-quarter earnings dented by tariffs. But the Milwaukee motorcycle maker got approval from the European Union to import bikes from Thailand and mitigate almost all of the $100 million hit it’s feeling from tariffs this year.
• BASF, the maker of plastics, pesticides and lubricant additives, is particularly exposed to export-reliant economies in Europe and Asia. The German company reported disappointing results reflecting a downshifting global economy and doesn’t see the situation improving in the second half.
• Oslo-based aluminium giant Norsk Hydro pared its demand growth forecast for a second time this year, echoing the outlook from top U.S. producer Alcoa. Russian giant United Co. Rusal chimed in with similar comments.
• The trade tensions have worsened an already tough environment for car makers. Renault lowered its outlook for full-year sales and Ford missed earnings estimates. German auto parts supplier Continental AG joined French rival in predicting a significant slowdown in worldwide vehicle output.
• Worried about another wave of tariffs, Hasbro is accelerating plans to shift away from China to new plants in Vietnam and India. The world's largest publicly traded toy maker said U.S. goods produced in China could drop to about 50% by the end of 2020, from just under two-thirds currently.
• Next week brings a gust of new manufacturing data. Monthly surveys of purchasing managers are due out Wednesday in China and Thursday in Europe’s big economies. In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management’s new monthly figures are scheduled for release Thursday.

Charting the Trade War

Global trade languished for a seventh straight month in May, new figures show, as a tariff battle between the U.S. and China heighten uncertainty that’s slowing growth in Europe and elsewhere in Asia.

Today’s Must Reads

• Powering down | American Electric Power Co. cited U.S. trade policy as the biggest economic headwind, the latest utility to note a sales slump for its industrial customers.
• Goodwill gesture | China’s government approved several domestic companies to buy U.S. cotton, corn, sorghum and pork without being subject to hefty retaliatory tariffs.
• Trouble in the fields | The U.S. unveiled $16 billion more in federal aid for agriculture, money that pleased American farmers but did little to ease their trade-war concerns.
• Homemade chips | E-commerce giant Alibaba is joining several Chinese corporations such as Huawei Technologies that are creating alternatives to foreign software and hardware. 
• New strategy | Agribusiness giant Cargill is looking to shake up its business as the year-long trade war with China makes it harder to navigate unpredictable crop markets.

Economic Analysis

• Supply lines | Low value-added Chinese exports could drop on U.S. tariff risks
• Aluminum routes | Chinese exports may find new route as tariffs create volatility

Coming Up

• July 30-31: U.S.-China trade talks in Shanghai
• Aug. 1: South Korean exports

--With assistance from Kenneth Wong.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Bravo at rbravo5@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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