Europeans Warm to Trade as Tariff Battles Rage Around the World
China’s chief trade negotiator said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about reaching a phase one deal with the U.S.
(Bloomberg) --
Globalization isn’t so scary for Europeans anymore.
After listening to politicians bemoan trade wars and their fallout on the global economy for the past few years, 60% percent of European Union citizens say they benefit to some degree from doing business with other countries, up from 44% in 2010. The new survey of more than 27,000 people across the 28-nation bloc might be somewhat surprising given the bad rap the international trading system has has gotten elsewhere.
The poll yields some unsurprising results: Younger people, those with more education, those who live in large cities and those with more money are more likely to see the rewards from trade. But delving into the numbers shows some results that are relevant to the current tariff-happy environment:
- The analysis shows no difference between genders when it comes to the question of benefiting from trade. If you get your information on globalization from the television, you were less likely feel the rewards of cross-border commerce than those who read about it on the internet.
- The results showed 56% of Europeans support higher tariffs on countries and businesses that violate international rules. That’s important as the EU looks for ways to respond to U.S. efforts to paralyze the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system.
- On the reasons to raise tariffs or not, 22% said they should be higher to protect domestic industry and jobs, while 32% of respondents said the EU should only increase import duties to retaliate when other countries do so first. Still, 35% said they are against raising tariffs because of the risk of higher costs for consumers and businesses.
Those results may embolden EU trade ministers gathering in Brussels today. While the threat of U.S. tariffs on European automobiles may have waned, President Donald Trump’s attitude toward the WTO has them worried. So does Trump’s rhetoric toward the EU, which he as recently as this month called “worse than China.”
Charting the Trade War
Today’s Must Reads
- Upbeat China | China’s chief trade negotiator said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about reaching a phase one deal with the U.S., even as talks continue to stretch out amid tensions over Hong Kong and other issues.
- Tech threat | Washington-Beijing tensions are exposing growing rifts between China and Silicon Valley: Leading venture capitalists and startup founders expressed concern over their governments’ fierce differences and the potential fallout.
- Korea relief | Early South Korea trade figures for November show exports could be headed for their smallest monthly decline since April, a sign that a year-long stretch of falls linked to weak global tech demand may be starting to ease.
- Filling the China gap | Malaysia’s Penang is seeing a new wave of investments from companies looking to skirt the U.S.-China trade war. Meanwhile, Vietnam is intensifying efforts to crack down on Chinese exporters trying to route products through the Southeast Asian nation to bypass higher U.S. tariffs.
- Cold War rekindled | Trade dominated Day One of Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Beijing, with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger saying the U.S. and China were in the “foothills of a Cold War.” Here’s what else was said.
Economic Analysis
- German slump | If the outlook unfolds as Bloomberg Economics expects, Germany’s slowdown won’t be deep enough to prompt a meaningful fiscal policy response.
- Sanctions update | Several important regulatory and enforcement updates took place related to economic sanctions and export controls for the third quarter of 2019.
Coming Up
- Nov. 25: CPB World Trade Monitor
- Nov. 26: Hong Kong trade balance, U.S. advanced goods trade balance
- Nov. 29: Vietnam exports
New Economy Forum
History is watching.
How will today’s leaders shape this century’s destiny? We live in an age of transformation. Commerce is shifting from sea lanes to fibre-optic cables. Street markets have migrated to the cloud. Tomorrow’s machines may be more intelligent than humans.
We struggle with complexity. Populism, protectionism, automation, climate change: the threats to development and prosperity are varied and growing.
This month, a community of leaders is gathering in Beijing to address the forces upending the global economy, seek solutions to our most pressing challenges — and chart the path to a New Economy.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brendan Murray at brmurray@bloomberg.net, Richard Bravo
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
