Trade-War Fallout, China Could Retaliate, Merkel Clash: Eco Day

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Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Tuesday started:

• Should U.S. tariff measures announced this month and the Chinese retaliation stay in place for two years, global GDP could be 0.3% lower by mid-2021, according to Bloomberg Economics’ estimates
  • The OECD’s latest economic outlook also focuses on trade tensions
• China could retaliate against the U.S. after President Donald Trump blacklisted Huawei Technologies, the Chinese ambassador to the European Union said
  • Still, perhaps nothing captures the growing anti-U.S. sentiment in China better than a song about the trade war that is going viral in Beijing
• Contrary to a widespread view among economists, the tight U.S. labor market is not attracting new workers from the sidelines, according to new research from the San Francisco Fed
• Angela Merkel is preparing for a clash with France as she pushes Germany’s most ambitious bid yet for a top European Union job
• The Bank of Japan is looking to make its own calculation of economic growth as it seeks a more accurate and timely gauge of the economy’s health
• It’s nearing time for Mugur Isarescu to decide whether he’ll prolong his more than quarter-century tenure as the longest-serving central bank boss in the world right now

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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