Trade Tensions, U.S. Capital Spending, $50 Oil's Impact: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news from Bloomberg Economics:

• President Donald Trump says he’ll likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, indicating he would also slap duties on all remaining imports from the Asian nation if negotiations with China’s leader Xi Jinping fail to produce a trade deal
• Juiced by Trump’s tax cuts, business investment helped deliver a robust U.S. economy in the first half of 2018, but signs have multiplied that the growth driver is faltering
• Just a couple of months ago, major oil trading houses were predicting the return of $100 crude. Now, with oil prices at half that level, here’s a look at what the slump means for the world economy
• European Central Bank Governing Council member Jozef Makuch will step down before the end of his term
• Uncertainty over France’s economic outlook rises as a measure of consumer confidence showed the country’s main growth engine is quickly losing power
• Italian business and household confidence fell this month during a standoff with the European Union over the government’s spending plans
  • The government is considering reducing a disputed budget deficit to between 2.2 and 2.3 percent of GDP in a concession to the European Union
• One of Sweden’s most powerful union groups is calling on the Riksbank to delay its planned interest-rate increases
• Trump dropped a rhetorical bomb on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s efforts to get a Brexit agreement through parliament, warning the deal she reached with the EU could jeopardize Britain’s ability to strike a trade pact with the U.S.
  • The Brexit deal negotiated by May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers say
  • Still, assuming the U.K. exits the EU in a smooth and orderly fashion, the economy is likely to benefit from a trifecta of cyclical tailwinds, according to Bloomberg Economics
  • Here’s how U.K. businesses are preparing for Brexit
• U.K. retailing remains subdued even though sales picked up slightly from last month, according to a Confederation of British Industry survey
• China’s beleaguered private firms may be on the cusp of better times, amid signs a government push to boost bank lending is working. Meanwhile, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S.-China clash may turn out to be a gritty Taiwanese town called Taoyuan
• Finally, take the time for our long read on Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment: On July 26, 2012, the ECB president drew a line in the sand and framed his legacy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in London at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Joanna Ossinger

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