Trade Deal Looms, ECB's Forecasts, China's Big 11 Days: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Happy Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• U.S. officials are preparing a final trade deal that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, as Chinese retaliation against tariffs costs U.S. firms about $40 billion a year in lost exports. Meantime, there’s a risk that negotiations shut out the rest of the world
• The ECB will wait until April to announce new loans, according to our survey ahead of next week’s policy meeting
  • The ECB needs to cut its economic forecasts to bring them in line with reality -- and that will inevitably result in adjustments to policy guidance, argues Jamie Murray
• The outcome of the lone meeting Nadine Baudot-Trajtenbergchaired at the Bank of Israel will resonate long after her five-year term as deputy governor ends this week
• Improvements in life expectancy are slowing in the world’s advanced economies, but it may not be the fault of austerity policies
• A crucial 11 days for China’s economy begins next week when leaders gather to detail priorities for the year; China’s mounting pile of distressed debt has elevated market players’ attention to one of its less obvious economic data points
• The U.S. economy was steadier than thought at the end of last year, but it’s probably too soon to give it a clean bill of health for 2019. Carl Riccadonna concurs: while the economy appears to have dodged a bullet, the coast isn’t clear
• Australia’s property slump deepened in February, as stricter lending standards dry up the flow of credit to investors and home-buyers
• India’s economy slowed considerably with little sign of a quick recovery, as political tensions with Pakistan emerged as a new risk to join global headwinds and tighter domestic financial conditions
• Finally, here’s are weekly wrap of what happened in the global economy

To contact the reporter on this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Henry Hoenig

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.