Trade Deadline, Germany Skirts Recession, BOE on Brexit: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • President Donald Trump is considering pushing back by 60 days the deadline for imposing higher tariffs on imports from China.
  • As headwinds spanning trade wars to slowing global growth buffet the U.S. economy, talk of a possible recession is picking up. Here are are a few major data points to keep an eye on.
  • Germany’s economy skirted a recession at the end of 2018, but it trailed most of its peers in the euro area. Looking ahead, continued trade tensions mean any pickup in Europe’s powerhouse economy could be muted.
    • Here’s why it’s possible Finnish voters might get a say in naming Mario Draghi’s successor.
    • Here’s an uncomfortable thought for whoever succeeds Draghi at the ECB as it tries to lift rates off the lower bound: the euro area looks a lot like Japan, where rates went to zero 20 years ago and stayed there, writes Tom Orlik.
  • Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe says a no-deal Brexit is more likely to require an easing than a tightening of monetary policy, the clearest view a policy maker has given of how they may react if the U.K. leaves the bloc without an agreement on March 29.
  • When America sneezes, the world catches a cold, so the old saying goes. Now Goldman Sachs economists are asking whether the reverse also holds true.

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