The Mystery of Just How Much U.S. Pork Is Going to China
Two different U.S. agencies report on pork exports in different ways covering different time periods.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. pork exporters are getting quite a boost as a massive outbreak of African swine fever decimates hog herds in China. But just how big that boost may be is a bit of a mystery.
Two different U.S. agencies report on pork exports in different ways covering different time periods, and the findings can offer widely disparate results, analysts say. At the same time, a push by China’s buyers toward whole or half carcasses, rather than the individual cuts the data traditionally focuses on, may be skewing the findings.
“There’s been confusion in the industry on whether the data includes whole carcasses or not,’’ said Rich Nelson, chief strategist of brokerage Allendale Inc in Illinois, by telephone. “This is a slightly incomplete data set we’re looking at each week, and there’s a delay in getting the full picture.’’
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports weekly on pork exports while the Commerce Department reports on a monthly basis. A recent comparison of the data showed a significant gap, said Brett Stuart, founding partner of Denver-based analytics firm Global AgriTrends.
Only 58% of the pork recorded monthly was reflected in the weekly data, he said. And when the China data is separated out, only 27% of exports were captured weekly.
“One of the problems is enforcement," Stuart said in a telephone interview. "USDA hasn’t really enforced the requirements.”
So far this year, China has purchased 163,825 metric tons of U.S. pork, according to the USDA’s weekly data. In an emailed statement, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said it “is reviewing the export sales reporting requirements for pork and will provide clarification as soon as possible.”
The newest debate focuses on whether China is booking carcass orders of U.S. pork that aren’t adequately reflected in either report. “There are people concerned that the actual bookings and shipments are not being reported,’’ Stuart said. “With that not being in the news, prices could be artificially lower.”
Indeed, China’s largest-ever purchase of U.S. pork prompted a price surge last month while its cancellation of a smaller sale this week caused prices to drop.
June lean hog futures have swung between gains and losses since approaching $1 a pound early last month. Negotiators “now seem further entrenched. That’s a valid concern,” Nelson said by telephone.
--With assistance from Lydia Mulvany.
To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Hirtzer in Chicago at mhirtzer@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at jattwood3@bloomberg.net, Reg Gale, Tina Davis
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