The Next U.S. Recession May Be Closer Than You Think: Chart

(Bloomberg) -- Using the 1-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. Dollar Index and the price of WTI crude oil, Bloomberg trained a “neural net” algorithm to predict the start of the next U.S. recession. What used to appear a safe way off may be upon us in 12-18 months. While the Treasury yield curve is the largest factor, the way it interacts with the other market forces drives the forecast. For more market commentary, see the MLIV blog.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jacob Bourne in New York at jbourne20@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Elizabeth Stanton, Sophie Caronello

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