Tehran Says It’s Ready to Pump More Oil Rapidly: Iran Snapshot

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Here is a snapshot of what’s happening with Iran, the status of nuclear talks and energy markets.

Latest developments

Iran reiterated on Sunday that it can boost oil production rapidly if U.S. sanctions are lifted.

Outgoing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said the country had taken “many measures” to ensure it can pump more crude in “a very short time.”

World powers have worked for months to broker an agreement between Iran and the U.S. that would restore Washington’s membership of a 2015 nuclear accord abandoned by former President Donald Trump in 2018. If they succeed, at least some sanctions would be lifted. No date has been set for what would be a seventh round of talks in Vienna.

Many analysts doubt a new accord will be agreed soon. Fitch Solutions said in a note that a deal is only likely by late 2022, as “domestic political headwinds in both the US and Iran undermine efforts in Tehran to produce a faster agreement by the summer months.”

In that scenario, Iran would only be back to pre-sanction levels of oil output -- roughly 4 million barrels a day, half of them being exports -- by 2023 or 2024, according to Fitch.

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Oil

Oil was steady in early trading on Monday, with Brent gaining 0.2% to around $76.35 a barrel. Traders will be watching Monday’s OPEC+ discussions, with ministers trying to bridge a divide between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Whether or not the group agrees to increase crude production next month will be a crucial factor for prices over the next few months.

Before the breakdown, the alliance appeared to be set to boost monthly output by 400,000 barrels a day from August to meet rising demand as major economies recover from the pandemic. The dramatic turn of events over the weekend leaves the market in limbo and tarnishes the cartel’s carefully reconstructed reputation for cohesion.

Agenda

Today: OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to reconvene at 2:00 p.m. London time after failing to reach agreement on Thursday.

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