Tariff Recession, Fed's Pat on the Back, ECB's Big Week: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• A recession could begin in nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates, Morgan Stanley says. Meanwhile, the impact of Trump’s tariff hike on Chinese imports is beginning to ripple through supply chains
• Fed officials might have good reason to pat themselves on the back when they gather in Chicago this week -- instead, they’ll be taking a second look at everything they do. Here’s why the Fed’s rethinking its toolkit
• Philip Lane is starting his first week as the European Central Bank’s top economist -- and it’s a big one
• Here are the most interesting points in China’s White Paper on trade released Sunday
• The world’s most enduring growth story is beginning to wobble
• Central banks may soon be back saving the world economy beset by an escalating trade war
• Trump contradicted two of his top aides, saying Sunday that “companies and jobs” returning to the U.S. would be a key outcome from his decision to impose import tariffs on goods coming from Mexico
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own government doesn’t believe his ambitious campaign pledges to improve living standards are attainable
• Closely watched gauges of factory sentiment across Asia showed ongoing weakness, led by another swoon lower in the region’s export powerhouses of Japan and South Korea.

--With assistance from Enda Curran.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Jeffrey Black in Hong Kong at jblack25@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net

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