Tariff Recession, Fed's Pat on the Back, ECB's Big Week: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • A recession could begin in nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates, Morgan Stanley says. Meanwhile, the impact of Trump’s tariff hike on Chinese imports is beginning to ripple through supply chains
  • Fed officials might have good reason to pat themselves on the back when they gather in Chicago this week -- instead, they’ll be taking a second look at everything they do. Here’s why the Fed’s rethinking its toolkit
  • Philip Lane is starting his first week as the European Central Bank’s top economist -- and it’s a big one
  • Here are the most interesting points in China’s White Paper on trade released Sunday
  • The world’s most enduring growth story is beginning to wobble
  • Central banks may soon be back saving the world economy beset by an escalating trade war
  • Trump contradicted two of his top aides, saying Sunday that “companies and jobs” returning to the U.S. would be a key outcome from his decision to impose import tariffs on goods coming from Mexico
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own government doesn’t believe his ambitious campaign pledges to improve living standards are attainable
  • Closely watched gauges of factory sentiment across Asia showed ongoing weakness, led by another swoon lower in the region’s export powerhouses of Japan and South Korea.

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